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Whether Cadel Evans wins the 2008 Tour de France or not, the pulsating stage to the summit of Hautacam is a massive turning point.
Evans bathes in yellow, but on rocky road to Paris
Tactically and strategically, there are valid questions about whether his Silence-Lotto team will be able to deal with the pressures of the yellow jersey this early in the race.
It was interesting to watch Tour legend Phil Anderson and Giro d’Italia stage winner David McKenzie give their post-stage dissection.
For all their excitement about what Evans had just done, the two Australians were clearly worried about the timing of the achievement.
Apart from the constant attention that the race leadership brings, the team of the yellow jersey wearer is expected to ride at the front of the peloton and effectively control the race.
Silence-Lotto is definitely not the strongest team in this Tour.
On the two stages so far that have featured climbing finishes, Evans was left by himself when the pace increased.
Last night, he worked with Russian Denis Menchov of Rabobank to ensure Frank Schleck of CSC-Saxo Bank did not gain too large a break.
Eventually, it meant Evans claimed the yellow jersey by one second over Schleck.
Contrast Silence-Lotto last night with CSC-Saxo, who had the relentless pace-setting by Jens Voigt and Fabian Cancellara, Schleck’s third place for the stage and fellow overall contender Carlos Sastre, who monitored Evans’ every move.
CSC-Saxo ominously demonstrated they have plenty of cards in the deck.
Their boss, former Tour winner Bjarne Riis, knows how to play them.
But if Silence-Lotto can lift, if Evans can keep playing his tactical cards right and – this is crucial – if Evans can avoid any more crashes, he has one massive advantage.
The Australian is the best time trialist in this year’s Tour among the overall contenders and he proved it with his fourth placing in stage four.
That was a 29km time trial, but the decisive race against the clock in the second-last stage will be 53km.
Again, there are plenty of “ifs”, but if Evans is within a minute or two of the lead at stage 20 and has a good ride, then history beckons.
Also, let’s put strategy and tactics to one side – psychologically, Evans has struck a telling blow.
He took yellow a day after a crash that broke his helmet and initially had him thinking his Tour was over.
The one knock on Evans is that he does not attack enough – last night, he did a lot of the pace-setting and was prepared to go off the front of the chase group to test his rivals.
He was nearly in tears on the podium, reflecting what this means to him in a career that has featured as many setbacks as triumphs.
It is also a massive morale boost for Silence-Lotto.
Tonight’s rest day is crucial, giving Evans and his team-mates time to re-group. The Australian can have further treatment on his crash injuries and prepare for the rigours ahead.
Evans started this Tour as the little red engine who might. After the time trial, he was the revving red diesel engine who can.
Now, he’s the mighty red turbo diesel who is.
But can he maintain this form and is his team capable of supporting him properly?
Over the next 11 days, we will learn the answers.
AUSTRALIANS IN THE YELLOW JERSEY AS OVERALL LEADER AT THE TOUR DE FRANCE
1981: Phil Anderson, 1 day (finished 10th overall)
1982: Anderson, 9 days (5th)
1998: Stuart O’Grady, 3 days (54th)
2001: O’Grady, 6 days (54th)
2003: Brad McGee, 3 days (133rd)
2004: Robbie McEwen, 1 day (122nd)
2008: Cadel Evans
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