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That the AFL readmitted Ben Cousins to the fold was no great surprise. That Cousins declared he wants to return, despite the stringent conditions imposed by the league, was even less so.
The least predictable element of the Cousins’ comeback story is whether there will be a club willing to take the punt.
There has never have been a player enter an AFL draft who mixes such obvious attractions with such dramatic risks.
St Kilda are the club to have shown by far the greatest eagerness and provide clearly the best chance for the 30-year-old Brownlow Medallist and four-time West Coast best and fairest to find a new football home.
The Brisbane Lions also tested the waters, although they are understood to have withdrawn from the race for Cousins this week.
In favour of Cousins gaining a second chance, the Saints have shown a clear penchant for taking risks on experienced players, including several aged over 30, since Ross Lyon arrived as coach after the 2006 season.
In the past two years, they have picked up Michael Gardiner, Matthew Clarke, Steven King, Sean Dempster, Adam Schneider, Charlie Gardiner and Shane Birss, with mixed results, as well as Farren Ray in last month’s trade week.
Michael Gardiner, like Cousins a former Eagle with a troubled past, provides the closest parallel to his former teammate and close friend.
Like his mate, he came with a history of off-field trouble, some of which was linked to his relationship with Cousins, as well as some significant fitness queries.
Gardiner has managed to keep a low profile since his move and after injury prevented him from playing a game in his first year with the Saints, he played nine serviceable matches this year.
But Cousins takes the equation to a completely different level.
On the plus side, the last time he played a full season, in 2006, he was an All Australian for the sixth time and helped the Eagles to a premiership.
Even in 2007, after being exiled by the Eagles for most of the season, his return was stunning.
In six home and away games, he averaged 28 touches, then was starring in a qualifying final, but tore his hamstring in the third quarter before the Eagles succumbed narrowly to Port Adelaide.
West Coast’s fall to also-rans last season without either Cousins or Chris Judd is ample evidence of the difference a couple of champions can make.
But even without Cousins’ off-field dramas, there are queries over whether the gamble would be worth it for the Saints.
On face value, their qualification for a preliminary final this year might suggest they are a quality player or two away from a flag and the addition of Cousins and an injury-free Luke Ball could make the difference.
But other clubs in the past have been given false hope by a preliminary final appearance and the ladder shows St Kilda were closer to missing the finals than they were to the three teams above them.
And there is no certainty Cousins can return to his best.
A hamstring injury delayed his comeback in 2007, another one ended it during that year’s finals and he was again hampered by hamstring trouble as he trained with WAFL clubs in Perth earlier this year, suggesting further injury troubles are likely.
Then there is the drugs issue.
The self-confessed drug addict has publicly admitted he might not be any different from the significant proportion of other addicts who relapse.
In Cousins’ case, that would result not only in an instant playing ban, but a huge dose of unwanted publicity for the club and potential damage to relationships with sponsors.
Even if he does not falter, the intense spotlight on his comeback and constant visits from drug-testers could prove burdensome and distracting for the Saints.
The club pulled one of the surprise moves of last year’s national draft when they re-recruited Fraser Gehrig after he had announced his retirement months earlier, a decision that ultimately proved a mistake.
The decision the club’s board and football department are about to make on Cousins has far greater stakes attached.
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