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The last time these two sides met in round nine last year Ablett was Geelong‘s best with a game-high 29 possessions, two goals and eight inside 50’s.
If the Magpies are going to contain a Geelong side that is capable of scoring heavily in quick bursts they will need to shut down Ablett’s creative run and prevent him from pumping the football inside 50.
In that round nine clash the Pies laid a staggering 85 tackles – they will need to apply the same sort of pressure all over the ground for four quarters if they are going to keep the likes of Ablett quiet.
Lockyer is Collingwood’s most effective run-with player and looms as the obvious candidate to line-up on Ablett in what shapes as being a crucial match-up in determining the outcome of this contest.
The Magpies will need Lockyer to be proactive and push forward and kick early goals as it will force Ablett to be accountable and thus help limit his influence.
Matthew Scarlett vs. Travis Cloke
The last time these two sides met in the home-and-away season Cloke outclassed Harry Taylor, finishing the match with 12 possessions, nine marks and four goals.
The Magpies will need a similar performance from Cloke on Thursday night if they are going to be any hope of recording a win against the odds.
Cloke is Collingwood‘s barometer – stopping him will go a long way towards securing the four premiership points for the Cats.
With this in mind, you would expect Geelong’s best defender in Scarlett to be given the task of matching up on Cloke.
Expect Cloke to push further up the ground and drag Scarlett away from the last line of defence where he is damaging with his ability to rebound the football.
Josh Fraser vs. Mark Blake
Fraser was unstoppable against Melbourne last Saturday, helping himself to 25 possessions, one goal and 26 hit-outs.
But he was up against second-gamer Jake Spencer and will find his job a lot tougher on Thursday night against the more experienced Blake.
The Cats will sorely miss the presence of Ottens but Blake has shown in the past that he is more than capable of shouldering the bulk of the workload in the ruck.
While Fraser will be forced to do most of the ruck work for Collingwood, Blake will receive some support from Trent West who has played just six AFL matches.
Blake and West are hardly elite ruckman but Geelong has plenty of elite clearance winning midfielders.
They just need the aforementioned duo to provide a contest and limit the effectiveness of Fraser’s taps.
Around the ground is where Fraser has a clear edge over Blake with his ability to win 20-plus possessions and also kick goals.
Fraser will push forward at every available opportunity and take Blake out of his comfort zone.
If the 27-year-old can chime in with two or three goals it will go a long way towards securing a win for the Pies.
Harry O’Brien vs. Steve Johnson
Along with Ablett, Johnson has been Geelong’s most damaging player so far this season, averaging 25.5 disposals and three goals per game.
He was particularly influential against Richmond at Skilled Stadium last Saturday with 24 disposals and four goals – three of which came in the final term to help lift his side to a 20-point win.
When these two sides met in round nine last year O’Brien did a brilliant job on Johnson, keeping the classy Geelong forward goalless.
Expect O’Brien to be given the task once again in what will be a pivotal contest.
As he showed last weekend, Johnson is capable of turning a game on its head in the space of a quarter so O’Brien will need to be switched on defensively for four quarters and not give Johnson any time or space in which to work his magic.
VERDICT: The Magpies will head into this clash with some confidence given their recent record against the Cats but the big question is can they shut down Geelong’s runners by playing high intensity pressure football for four quarters after a five-day turnaround.
These two sides are relatively evenly matched but Mark Thompson’s men have the edge in the midfield. In what shapes as being a taxing game, Geelong’s class and depth in the middle should prove to be the difference. Cats by 29 points.
VENUE and TIME: MCG, Thursday 9 April, 7.40pm (AEDT)
HEAD TO HEAD: Played 214: Geelong 89 Collingwood 124 Drawn 1
LAST TIME: Collingwood 20.14 (134) def Geelong 7.6 (48), Round 9, 2008 at the MCG.
RECENT HISTORY: The Magpies have won three of their past five against Geelong.
FORM: Geelong is undefeated this season but they were made to earn the four points by Richmond last weekend. The Tigers booted eight goals to three in the third term to take a one-point lead but the Cats steadied and prevailed by 20 points. Collingwood bounced back from a shock four-point loss to Adelaide in round one with a 53-point demolition of last year’s wooden spooners Melbourne at the MCG last Saturday. Of concern to Magpies coach Mick Malthouse would be his side’s slow starts so far this season – the Pies trailed at quarter-time in their matches against the Crows and the Demons. If Collingwood is going to defeat Geelong at the home of football on Thursday night they will need to start well.
MEDICAL ROOM: The Cats suffered a massive blow in the win over the Tigers with ruckman Brad Ottens injuring his knee in the first quarter. Ottens will be sidelined for at least two weeks, while Simon Hogan (general soreness) will also miss the clash against the Magpies. Skipper Tom Harley (knee) is two to three weeks away from returning while Shane Mumford (calf) is also unavailable. Youngster Mitch Brown (broken leg) and defenders Josh Hunt (knee) and Matthew Egan (foot) won’t play again this season. For Collingwood, Dale Thomas returns after being a late withdrawal against Melbourne with a virus. Anthony Rocca is injury free but hasn’t been selected due to a lack of match fitness while fellow forward Sean Rusling (shoulder) is at least two weeks away from being considered for selection.
KEY MATCH-UPS: Tarkyn Lockyer vs. Gary Ablett
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD
GEELONG
B: Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie, Matthew Scarlett
HB: Joel Corey, Harry Taylor, Max Rooke
C: Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling
HF: James Kelly, Cameron Mooney, Mathew Stokes
F: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson
Foll: Mark Blake, Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood
I/C: Trent West, Travis Varcoe, David Wojcinski, Shannon Byrnes
Emg: David Johnson, Ryan Gamble, Tom Lonergan
In: Trent West, Shannon Byrnes, Matthew Stokes
Out: Brad Ottens (knee), Simon Hogan (general soreness), Ryan Gamble
COLLINGWOOD
B: Shannon Cox, Simon Prestigiacomo, Heath Shaw
HB: Harry O’Brien, Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell
C: Martin Clarke, Alan Didak, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Paul Medhurst
F: John Anthony, Leigh Brown, Shane O’Bree
Foll: Josh Fraser, Tarkyn Lockyer, Scott Pendlebury
I/C: Leon Davis, Ben Johnson, Dane Swan, Brad Dick
Emg: Anthony Corrie, Anthony Rocca, Alan Toovey
In: Dale Thomas
Out: Alan Toovey
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