Richmond has lost its past three after suffering a heartbreaking three-point loss to Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium last Sunday. The Tigers have won just one of their first eight matches. Essendon pushed an unbeaten St Kilda side all the way but their lack of finishing proved to be costly as they went down by 19 points.
The Bombers have surprised many so far this season and currently boast a 4-4 win-loss record.
MEDICAL ROOM: Richmond will be without veteran midfielder Ben Cousins for a week after he broke his hand in the loss to the Power while ruckman Angus Graham (hamstring) will also miss the clash against the Dons. Alex Rance (fractured cheekbone), Kane Johnson (knee) and veteran Matthew Richardson (hamstring) remain on the sidelines. For the Bombers, ruckman David Hille is out for the season with a knee injury while Scott Gumbleton (back) is sidelined indefinitely. Mark McVeigh will play his second match in the VFL this weekend as he continues his return from an ankle injury while veteran defender Dustin Fletcher (leg) is at least another two weeks away. Jason Laycock (foot), Kyle Reimers (knee), Andrew Welsh (ankle) and Hayden Skipworth (hamstring) are also unavailable.
KEY MATCH-UPS:
Daniel Jackson vs. Jobe Watson
Watson was among his side’s best in the loss to the Saints with a game-high 39 possessions – 26 of which came by hand.
The 24-year-old is damaging with his ability to win the football in close and use it cleanly by hand to find the likes of Andrew Lovett and Jason Winderlich in space.
If the Tigers are going to be any hope of recording just their second win of the season they will need to shut-down the Dons’ running game – a key part of doing that is limiting Watson’s influence in the middle.
Jackson, who is usually given the job of running with the opposition’s best midfielder, looms as the obvious candidate to tag Watson.
The Tigers will need Jackson to deny Watson any time or space at the stoppages and also try and hurt him going the other way.
Heath Hocking vs. Brett Deledio
The last time these two sides met in round 16 last year Deledio helped himself to 19 possessions, one goal, seven tackles and four inside 50’s in a performance that earned him the one Brownlow medal vote.
Last year’s best-and-fairest winner provides plenty of drive through the middle – he is second at the Tigers for inside 50’s and fourth for bounces.
The Bombers will be keen to shut-down his run and carry as Richmond’s forwards will struggle to receive enough quality supply without his influence.
Hocking was far from disgraced in his duel with St Kilda star Nick Dal Santo last weekend – Hocking racked up 27 possessions while Dal Santo helped himself to 23 disposals.
Expect Essendon coach Matthew Knights to give Hocking the task of tagging Deledio in what shapes as being a pivotal duel.
Hocking will need to apply relentless pressure all night otherwise Deledio will hurt the Bombers with his blistering pace and clean delivery of the football into forward line.
Kelvin Moore vs. Matthew Lloyd
Lloyd looms as the main danger man for Richmond given his recent record against the Tigers – he has booted 32 goals in his past seven matches against Terry Wallace’s men.
Moore lined up on Lloyd last season and kept him to just two goals in the round 16 clash.
Expect Moore to match-up on the Essendon skipper once again on Saturday night in what shapes as being a pivotal duel.
If Moore is going to have any hope of winning his battle with Lloyd he will need his midfield to deny the Bombers midfield any time or space otherwise they will break the lines and deliver the football lace out to Lloyd who is virtually unstoppable on the lead.
Henry Slattery vs. Nathan Brown
Brown made a solid return from injury last weekend with 18 possessions and two goals.
The 31-year-old will be better for the run and will need to be watched closely given that he helped himself to 26 disposals, 11 marks and three goals in the Tigers’ four-point win over Essendon in round 16 last year.
The former Bulldog is damaging with his ability to not only kick goals but also set up scoring opportunities for his teammates with his clever use of the football.
Slattery has matched up on dangerous mid-sized forwards in the past and will most likely be given first crack at Brown.
The 23-year-old will need to be switched on defensively for the full four quarters as Brown is still capable of turning a game on its head in the space of a quarter.
VERDICT: Richmond will head into this match with some confidence given their recent record against Essendon but it is highly unlikely they will prevail in the annual Dreamtime match. The Bombers are playing an exciting brand of football and have plenty of young players that have stepped up in 2009. They should be able to overcome a Tigers side that has failed to play four quarters of consistent football so far this season.
Bombers by 29 points.
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