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So it’s been decided. From 2011 the Super Rugby competition will consist of fifteen teams, with the extra team being placed in the Australian conference.
From either 2013 or 2015, the competition may even expand to a Super 18, with an extra team in each conference.
How the competition is run and how some countries are disadvantaged by having more quality teams in their conference is obviously a subject of some debate.
But not this one.
The questions I’m asking here are where should the extra team come from for the Super 15 (Australian conference) and where should the extra three teams (one in each conference) come from for the Super 18?
Let’s look at the options:
Melbourne
This appears to be the front runner. The financial potential of having a team based in Australia’s second largest city are too big to ignore. However, there is still a question mark. ‘Financial potential’ doesn’t necessarily mean ‘financial certainty’.
Player numbers in Victoria have grown slightly in the last ten years, but the AFL still casts a very, very long shadow. However, there are some reports that at least a verbal guarantee was given to Victoria after they were denied entry into the Super 14 behind the Western Force.
Supporters of a Melbourne Super 15 franchise have more to fear from Japan than the other Australian options.
There is also the possibility of fielding a Pacific Islands team based in Melbourne. But that opens up a whole new set of questions as to Wallaby selection, and harm to the Pacific Islands national teams.
Pros – Big cash potential and potential growth of the sport
Cons – Uphill battle against the official state religion of AFL
Chances of Super 15 entry 75%
Chances of Super 18 entry 100%
Gold Coast
How many teams can the Gold Coast support?
Just over ten years ago, the Gold Coast Chargers were launched in the Australian Rugby league. They folded a year later having failed to gain significant local support. Now, in the space of three years, the Gold Coast has gone from having nothing to having an NRL team, an A-League team starting in the 2009-2010 season, and a provisional franchise licence to enter a team in the AFL from 2011.
Are they already near saturation point?
The Gold Coast option is probably the least likely expansion option for the ARU. Not only has the Gold Coast yet to demonstrate that it can support AFL, NRL and A-League competitions at the same time, they are also facing opposition from the QRU who would see the franchise as a direct competitor to the Reds.
Pros – Excellent stadium
Cons – No guarantee of support from the public and no support from the QRU
Chance of Super 15 entry 5%
Chance of Super 18 entry 5%
Western Sydney
The ARU wants to see rugby player numbers and supporter numbers grow in the massive population of Western Sydney, and so does the NSW Rugby Union. This is the main reason why the Waratahs are not as hostile to perceived competition from Western Sydney as the QRU is to the Gold Coast.
A bid for a franchise in the area would also have financial backing of some private sector interests, but the ARU would be wary of relying on this kind of backing after the woes of the firepower affair with the Western Force.
Third party backing was the flavour of the month three years ago. It is a different story now.
Another obvious question would be, where does support for New South Wales end and Western Sydney begin?
Last time I checked, Western Sydney was in NSW.
The ARU has tried for years to remove the regional names from Super 15 teams. Did you know that the Brumbies actually represent the ACT and Southern NSW? That’s why their ground announcer always refers to them as the CA Brumbies after their sponsor – ala HSBC Waratahs.
Unfortunately for the ARU, rugby fans haven’t fallen for it, and the ARU may not want to bet good money on them falling for it in Western Sydney.
Pros – Large potential fan base, good stadiums
Cons – Fan base lodged firmly in NSW Waratahs territory
Chance of Super 15 entry 7%
Chance of Super 18 entry 10%
Pacific Islands
The IRB has long made it clear that they want to support the growth of Pacific Islands rugby. They haven’t always made it clear whether they actually were supporting Pacific Islands rugby.
The region has continually lost players to European clubs, New Zealand, and to a lesser extent, Australia. Unfortunately for PIR, a decision on future Super Rugby franchises will be based on the best interests of SANZAR, and it could be argued, rightly so.
One other factor going against them is political stability – and it’s a big factor.
Add to that the lack of playing facilities, and a financially viable supporter base, and the case for a PIR side in Super rugby is even weaker.
Having players playing in a potential Melbourne side wouldn’t really mean the PIR was represented. But the one glimmer of hope would be a PIR side in the New Zealand conference – based in New Zealand.
That would at least hold open the possibility of the occasional match being played in the Islands. And, of course, the NZRU would never take advantage of the situation to fill the ranks of the All Blacks while preventing players from representing their home countries. Oh wait.
Pros – Quality player pool. Crowd favourite on tour
Cons – No possibility of actually being based in the Pacific Islands
Chance of Super 15 entry 0%
Chance of Super 18 entry 40% (NZ based in NZ conference)
South Eastern Cape (South Africa)
A sports writer could fill an entire book on the pros and cons of an extra South African team and where in South Africa it should be based. As a page filler you could simply publish the court transcripts of hearings arguing that very topic.
Barring UN intervention, the extra slot in the South African Conference in an expanded Super 18 is a given. What more needs to be said.
Pros – Irrelevant
Cons – Irrelevant
Chance of Super 15 entry 0%
Chance of Super 18 entry 100% (RSA Conference)
Japan
The potential financial returns from tapping the Japanese market are massive.
There is already a lucrative national competition in place, and a large television following, although crowd numbers are low. Travel times are a worry, but no more than travel to South Africa.
TV time zones are friendly to Australia and New Zealand, and the desire of the IRB and the ARU to curry favour with the Japanese market is well documented. The only question would really be – one team or two?
Pros – Money, population, TV, potential
Cons – Travel
Chance of Super 15 entry 13%
Chance of Super 18 entry 85% (1st team in Aust. Conference)
Chance of Super 18 entry 40% (2nd team in NZ Conference)
Argentina
Following the 2007 Rugby World Cup, there was a lot of talk about getting Argentina involved in major competitions. Unfortunately, that’s all it was – talk.
There is currently no professional domestic rugby in Argentina and all of their professionals ply their trade in Europe.
Their inclusion in Super Rugby would be a natural progression towards inclusion in the Tri-Nations (or Tetra-Nations) but they would have to beat off challenges from Japan and an NZRU-backed Pacific Islands to sneak into the New Zealand conference in the Super 18.
Their inclusion in the Australian Conference is logistically impossible, which rules them out of the Super 15, and inclusion in the South African conference at the expense of the South Eastern Cape could lead to anything in South Africa.
South African rugby politics can be hilarious at times.
Pros – A professional option in Argentina, and inclusion in a major competition
Cons – Travel, there can only be 18 teams in the Super 18
Chance of Super 15 entry 0%
Chance of Super 18 entry 20% (NZ Conference)
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.