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New Zealand, All Blacks Brad Thorn, right and John Afoa, left, react after Thorn scored a try against Ireland in the Rugby Union International at Croke Park, Dublin, Ireland, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2008. AP Photo/Peter Morrison
With Graham Henry set to announce his All Black squad this Sunday, and the June Tests right around the corner, I thought I’d explore some areas of concern for the All Blacks in their upcoming Test season. The way I see it, the All Blacks will face three challenges this season: injuries, fatigue and player motivation.
INJURIES
Injuries are both a blessing and a curse.
In some cases, they help solve selection dilemmas, as is the case with halfback, where three won’ go into two. Alternatively, they can help build playing stocks, which I suspect will be the case with the locks this season.
But it’s always the “biggies” that worry you the most.
Heading into this season, the biggest injury concern in New Zealand rugby was Daniel Carter’s ruptured Achilles tendon. Having had a full Super 14 to digest this news, a first five has emerged who’s at least good enough to lead his side to a Super 14 final.
The big story now is Sitiveni Sivivatu’s shoulder.
Sivivatu’s a guy who’s had his battles with injuries and form in the past, but he was back to his scintillating best in this year’s Super 14. The prospects for the All Blacks’ back three seemed too good to be true; and in fact they were.
Now wing is a position where you’d usually shrug off an injury, but in Sivivatu the All Blacks have lost arguably their best attacking player and premier strike weapon.
This leaves Henry with a few options:
1. Move Rokocoko to his more natural, preferred position of left wing and bring in a new talent like Masaga or Ranger on the right.
2. Keep Rokocoko on the right wing and play either a specialist left wing or one of the up and comers on the left.
3. Use the vacant wing spot to field a player like Kahui or Toeava, whom you have a difficult time fitting into the side.
But here’s the rub: with Henry’s growing overreliance on his core senior All Blacks, there really is no other winger in the country who is ready to step up to Test match level.
When you consider that this holds true for a number of other positions, you start to realise what a wasted opportunity last year’s end of tour was.
The All Blacks needed a 2004 style tour and instead we got a ridiculous and completely unnecessary Grand Slam tour, which few people in New Zealand bothered watching.
The 2008 end of year tour was supposed to solve the problems Henry had last year when Tuitavake, Wulf and Kahui divided the wing duties, but instead it’s the Super 14 that will provide Sivivatu’s replacement. Hardly an ideal situation given that we have an unproven player at first five-eighths and a right winger still playing himself into form.
Watch now as the pressure mounts on Mils Muliaina.
FATIGUE
The NZRU flogged the All Blacks last season and they’re flogging them again this season. There’s no other way to put it.
Due to player losses, injuries and a public perception that reconditioning and rotation cost the All Blacks the 2007 World Cup, Henry was forced to field a skeleton crew where the burden rested heavily on a core group of senior All Blacks. This was exasperated by the early losses in the Tri-Nations and the significance of Richie McCaw’s injuries, and further compounded by a self-inflicted need to win every Test on the Grand Slam tour.
With an almost non-existent off-season, it’s no surprise that many of Henry’s workhorses have either struggled in the Super 14 or barely played at all. Richie McCaw seemed concerned with self-preservation this season; a trait he usually lacks.
Ali Williams and Rodney So’oialo are players for whom some games are a bridge too far, but it’s unusual to see a drop in standard in guys like McCaw or Woodcock. Both of them had a nightmare run with injuries this season, but they also played through injury last year.
Come June 13th, they’ll be expected to turn it on.
Shades of 1998? The spectre is always there.
The current Test schedule has to be reduced and the off-season must be increased. There’s no way that players will last under these conditions in the proposed Super 15 format.
If the NZRU are to persist with their current money grabbing fixtures, then they should leave room for certain players to either stay at home or play in the Air New Zealand Cup, instead of granting them sabbaticals to escape the grind.
MOTIVATION
Generally speaking, it’s not difficult to motivate the All Blacks given public expectation, the history of the jersey, competition for Test spots and the seriousness with which New Zealand approaches every single Test match, but this year is a little tricky.
Many of these players have re-signed with the NZRU on the basis of “unfinished business;” an unspoken commitment within this group of players to stick it out until the 2011 World Cup at home in New Zealand.
2009 is the halfway point towards that goal; neither here nor there.
Last season, the All Blacks and their coaching staff were motivated by the disappointment over their World Cup exit and the controversy surrounding Graham Henry’s reappointment and Deans’ departure overseas. There were a number of young players who had never been part of a Tri-Nations win or a Bledisloe Cup series victory and their enthusiasm in turn inspired the more senior players, particularly after the difficult start to the 2008 Tri-Nations.
This year, there are certain individuals who are fighting to keep their Test spots and another group of players who just didn’t seem into the Super 14, as though they couldn’t be bothered going through the rigmarole of a Super 14 season just to play Test match rugby.
The All Blacks have won the Tri-Nations four years in a row and held the Bledisloe Cup for the past six years. If a team pushes them again like Australia did last year, they’ll probably talk about how important those trophies are to them, but deep down they’ve got one eye on the finishing line – the 2011 World Cup.
I have a seeking suspicion that a few of these players would’ve liked to have gone overseas or perhaps even retired had New Zealand won the 2007 World Cup, and I think motivating them when even their forward coach has itchy feet will be an immense task this year.
At some point in this season, we’ll see whether 2009 is about the pressure to retain trophies or the desire to win them again.
We’ll also see what toll that has on players.
I’ll state my gut feeling now: I think this year will be the end of the road for more than a few All Blacks.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.