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Preview of AFL round 20 matches (all game times are local).
FRIDAY, August 14
HAWTHORN v ADELAIDE at the MCG, 7.40pm
Head to head: Hawthorn 12 Adelaide 16 Drawn 0
Last time: Adelaide 16.10 (106) bt Adelaide 12.7 (79) R10, 2009, AAMI Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Hawthorn $2.15 Adelaide $1.65
Sportingbet: Hawthorn $2.10 Adelaide $1.75
After three straight losses, the Hawks are stunned to find themselves still with some hope of a finals berth. But if they concede another loss to the Crows they might find their luck has run out. Adelaide are also keen to regain some momentum after narrow losses to Geelong and Collingwood in the past two rounds. Against a consistent Adelaide defence, the Hawks will be hoping for a big performance from Lance Franklin, who has proved a matchwinner against the Crows several times in the past. With Adelaide key defender Nathan Bock missing through injury, Franklin poses an even bigger threat. But countering that, the Hawks have lost fellow big forward Jarryd Roughead for the rest of the season.
Key: Hawthorn have made solid starts in each of their last three games, before allowing the opposition to take control and finish stronger. With their season on the line they will need to hang tough to have a chance against the Crows.
Tip: Adelaide by 15 points
SATURDAY, August 15
RICHMOND v COLLINGWOOD at the MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: Richmond 84 Collingwood 110 Drawn 1
Last time: Collingwood 18.14 (122) bt Richmond 11.12 (78) R3, 2008, MCG.
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $6.25 Collingwood $1.10
Sportingbet: Richmond $7.00 Collingwood $1.10
Collingwood are motoring towards a finals doubles chance on the back of 10 wins in the last 11 rounds, with many starting to wonder if they, rather than Geelong, have become St Kilda’s biggest premiership threat. The Magpies have been extremely impressive in dispatching top four hopefuls Carlton, Brisbane and Adelaide in the past three rounds. The seemingly unstoppable Dane Swan racks up a bucketload of disposals each week, Alan Didak is in the form of his career, while defender Simon Prestigiacomo consistently blankets the AFL’s best forwards. By contrast, the Tigers could hardly have played worse than they did against Sydney last weekend. While the farewell game of Joel Bowden should provide an emotional boost, the question is whether the Tigers have the class to compete.
Key: With Swan, Didak and Scott Pendlebury in great touch, the Magpies’ midfield looks a class above that of the Tigers.
Tip: Collingwood by 30 points
WEST COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE at Subiaco, 2.10pm
Head to head: West Coast 18 North Melbourne 17 Drawn 0
Last time: North Melbourne 13.11 (89) bt West Coast 12.11 (83) R8, 2008, Carrara.
TAB Sportsbet: West Coast $1.36 North Melbourne $3.00
Sportingbet: West Coast $1.36 North Melbourne $3.15
The Eagles have cast aside any perceptions they might be easing their way through the tailend of a difficult season, with surprise wins over Essendon and the Western Bulldogs in the past two rounds. In particular, last round’s away victory over the Dogs showed tremendous character, after the Bulldogs fought back from a huge deficit to take the lead late in the match. The Eagles have spent the past two seasons ushering in a new group of young midfielders and it is starting to bear fruit. Promising key forward Josh Kennedy and athletic ruck prospect Nic Naitanui are also giving cause for excitement. The Kangaroos are coming off a big win over a very disappointing Melbourne, but will face a much harder task trying to win in Perth.
Key: The Kangaroos attack finally fired against the Demons, with young big man Todd Goldstein’s five goals a heartening performance, but the question is whether it was just a one-off.
Tip: West Coast by 14 points
BRISBANE v WESTERN BULLDOGS at the Gabba, 7.10pm
Head to head: Brisbane 16 Western Bulldogs 22 Drawn 0
Last time: Brisbane 13.12 (90) bt Western Bulldogs 10.19 (79) R20, 2008, Gabba.
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $1.75 Western Bulldogs $2.00
Sportingbet: Brisbane $1.75 Western Bulldogs $2.10
This should be the match of the round, with plenty to play for. The winners will end the round in the top four, while both clubs are keen to bounce back from disappointing showings last weekend. The Bulldogs in particular will be desperate to show that their shock loss to West Coast was not the start of a late-season fadeout. After conceding 16 goals against the Eagles, the Dogs’ defence will certainly need to lift. Lions star forwards Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw had quiet games by their standards in last round’s draw against Essendon. But they are never far away from a decent haul of goals and kicked five between them to help the Lions to victory last time the two clubs met.
Key: The Bulldogs had plenty of passengers last round and will need a full team performance rather than relying on a handful of stars if they are to get back on track.
Tip: Bulldogs by eight points
SYDNEY v GEELONG at ANZ Stadium, 7.10pm
Head to head: Sydney 93 Geelong 112 Drawn 0
Last time: Geelong 17.14 (116) bt Sydney 10.5 (65) R7, 2009, Skilled Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $2.55 Geelong $1.48
Sportingbet: Sydney $2.65 Geelong $1.48
This match will be closely watched to see whether the Cats are really starting to slip off the pace or have just experienced a minor hiccup. Last round’s loss to Carlton was Geelong’s third in six rounds, after losing only three of their previous 58. But it was more the nature of the defeat to the Blues that has thrown up some queries, with Geelong lacking the intensity that has previously been their hallmark. Coach Mark Thompson has publicly challenged his side to bounce back and make sure their dominance of the competition for the best part of three seasons reaps the rewards it deserves. If things are to get back on track, there should be a swift and clear reaction on Saturday night. The Swans were good enough to lift for Michael O’Loughlin’s 300th match last round and thrash Richmond and the previous round almost ended St Kilda’s unbeaten streak, so if the Cats are below-par, Sydney are in with a shot.
Key: If the queries over Geelong provoke them to produce their absolute best, their class should be too much for Sydney.
Tip: Geelong by 26 points
SUNDAY, August 16
MELBOURNE v FREMANTLE at the MCG, 1.10pm
Head to head: Melbourne 11 Fremantle 13 Drawn 0
Last time: Fremantle 16.18 (114) bt Melbourne 10.8 (68) R16, 2008, Subiaco
TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $2.15 Fremantle $1.65
Sportingbet: Melbourne $2.20 Fremantle $1.67
In theory, this should be bottom-placed Melbourne’s best chance to snatch another win before the year’s out. The Dockers are second-last and have won just once outside Subiaco all year. All of Melbourne’s three victories this season have come at the MCG, the last two against sides visiting from interstate. And even those who believe the Demons are tanking have no reason to write Melbourne off on that count, as they should still finish bottom of the ladder as well as gaining a priority pick even if they win. But there is little to suggest the Demons are good enough to beat anyone, anywhere in their current state. Their injury list is alarmingly long and they were dismal against North Melbourne last round. And a young Fremantle side who have won two of their past three games will be keen to keep the momentum going.
Key: Melbourne are unable to find a damaging forward, while for Fremantle, youngster Chris Mayne has stood up after an injury-interrupted start to the year with seven goals in the past two rounds
Tip: Fremantle by 20 points
PORT ADELAIDE v CARLTON at AAMI Stadium, 2.40pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 12 Carlton 6 Drawn 1
Last time: Carlton 18.24 (132) bt Port Adelaide 9.12 (66) R19, 2008, Etihad Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Port Adelaide $2.00 Carlton $1.75
Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $2.08 Carlton $1.75
If ever a side has motivation to win a game of football it is Port Adelaide this Sunday. The erratic Power are still holding down eighth spot despite their shock belting by Fremantle, but are unlikely to be there by the end of this round if they lose to the Blues. They will also want to atone for losing both their clashes with Carlton last year, the first of those at AAMI Stadium in round 11, when the Blues came back from five goals down at the last change. Port will be heartened by their strong record at home this year, with eight wins from 10 matches in Adelaide. But the Blues enter the clash in very good touch. Last round’s 35-point win over Geelong was their fifth in six rounds.
Key: Carlton’s midfield held sway in last year’s two meetings with the Power and Port will need to find a way to stop the likes of Chris Judd, Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy if they are to turn the tables.
Tip: Carlton by five points
ESSENDON v ST KILDA at Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to head: Essendon 134 St Kilda 63 Drawn 4
Last time: St Kilda 13.12 (90) bt Essendon 10.11 (71) R8, 2009, Etihad Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $6.50 St Kilda $1.09
Sportingbet: Essendon $5.75 St Kilda $1.14
The Saints like to believe that they can perform anywhere at any time and after last weekend’s victory over Hawthorn in Launceston with a severely depleted side it is impossible to argue. With the stars expected back this week the Bombers are rank outsiders to cause an upset. But this match will be an interesting test of their playing style. Speed is the key to their game and they credited their return to form against the Lions last round with a return to quick ball movement and a willingness to take risks and take on opponents. But the hallmark of the Saints’ season has been their stifling pressure on opponents, tackling them with ferocity and bringing them to a standstill.
Key: Essendon are missing injured key forwards Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas, leaving youngsters Jay Neagle and Michael Hurley with a huge task to try to have an impact against the competition’s toughest defence.
Tip: Saints by 60 points
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