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Collingwood's Dale Thomas marks over Sydney's Heath Grundy during the AFL Round 21 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Sydney Swans at the MCG. Slattery Images
The Magpies look to be peaking at the right time. Collingwood has won their last five matches and 12 of its last 13. With St Kilda and Geelong faltering in the last few weeks, are the Magpies the form team of the competition?
They played Geelong way back in Round 3 and St Kilda in Round 7. After their loss to the Saints they were a shaky 3-4 and you couldn’t compare that Magpies side with the one today. They should give the finals a real shake.
Showdown for eighth spot
Hawthorn isn’t going to go down meekly. The defending premiers will be in the finals if they defeat Essendon this weekend and would be favourites with the Bombers, having to rebound from a tough loss in Perth.
The winner is going to make it with just 10 wins and on current form you would think they would be hard-pressed to win in the first week of the finals.
Still, once you are there anything is possible.
Interesting Round 22
Round 22 has two very fascinating games which will have a wonderful finals’ atmosphere.
Carlton is playing Adelaide for fifth spot while the Bulldogs can take third spot from the Magpies if they win by something like four goals.
Carlton can really be pleased with their efforts. They have 13 wins to date and that is a fine return for any team, let alone one which hasn’t won that many games since 2001.
Finishes Like It Started
The year started with a bang for Ben Cousins and it should end with one as well.
It began with a big match against Carlton at the MCG and this weekend he will back at Subiaco to take on the Eagles.
For the most part, Cousins has been a sturdy player for the Tigers, but it was too much to think that he would be able to turn them into a quality side.
The Tigers are just too young and too inexperienced and there is only so much a player at the stage of Cousins’ career can do.
Crystal Ball Time
Collingwood will defeat the Bulldogs, Carlton will have the Crows’ measure and Brisbane will lose in Sydney. Hawthorn will win to sneak into the finals.
That gives us a first week of St Kilda/Bulldogs, Geelong/Collingwood, Carlton/Hawthorn and Adelaide/Brisbane.
Some interesting match-ups to come.
The last-round equation for the AFL clubs in the finals race:
St Kilda, 1st (76 points, percentage 155.0) – play Melbourne (MCG) on Sunday. Will finish first.
Geelong, 2nd (68, 126.0) – Fremantle (SS) on Saturday. Will finish second.
Collingwood, 3rd (60, 125.0) – Western Bulldogs (ES) on Sunday. Will finish third if they win. Could drop to fourth if they lose, depending on the margin.
Western Bulldogs, 4th (56, 122.2) – Collingwood (ES) on Sunday. Might climb to third if they win. Should remain fourth if they lose, unless it is by a huge margin, in which case they could drop to fifth and lose the double chance.
Carlton, 5th (52, 115.3) – Adelaide (ES) on Saturday. Will finish at least fifth if they win. A big win could lift them to fourth if the Bulldogs have a big loss. Will drop to sixth at best if they lose, or to seventh if Brisbane beat Sydney, in which case they will face an away elimination final.
Adelaide, 6th (52, 114.4) – Carlton (ES) on Saturday. Will finish at least fifth if they win. Could climb to fourth if the Bulldogs lose and they close the big percentage gap. Will stay sixth at best if they lose, or drop to seventh if Brisbane beat Sydney.
Brisbane, 7th (50, 106.6) – Sydney (SCG) on Saturday night. Will climb to sixth if they win and gain a home elimination final, or stay seventh if they lose.
Essendon, 8th (38, 96.8) – Hawthorn (MCG) on Saturday. Win and finish eighth, lose and miss finals.
Hawthorn, 9th (36, 93.0) – Essendon (MCG) on Saturday. Must win, then hope Port Adelaide do not beat North Melbourne by a massively bigger margin and overtake them on percentage, to clinch eighth.
Port Adelaide, 10th (36, 88.5) – North Melbourne (AS) on Saturday night. Can finish eighth with a huge win, provided Hawthorn beat Essendon by a small margin.
ES – Etihad Stadium, SS – Skilled Stadium, AS – AAMI Stadium, G-Gabba
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