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NRL preview panel for round 26 (all times AEST).
FRIDAY
WESTS TIGERS v BULLDOGS at Sydney Football Stadium, 7.35pm
Head to head: Tigers 7, Bulldogs 10
Last clash: Bulldogs 22 bt Tigers 20 at ANZ Stadium (Rd 8, 2009)
TAB SportsBet: Bulldogs $1.45 Tigers $2.65.
FootyTab: Wests Tigers +6.5.
The Bulldogs were dealt a savage blow last weekend when they lost playmaker Brett Kimmorley with a fractured cheekbone in their comfortable victory over NZ Warriors. His replacement, Daniel Holdsworth, will be the man under pressure in the No.7 jersey. He’ll be playing not just for a win that will seal the minor premiership for the Bulldogs, but for a contract as the club looks set to squeeze him out due to salary cap restrictions. We’ll find out Friday night whether coach Kevin Moore’s declaration that the Bulldogs are not a one-man band is true. It’d be a remarkable achievement if the Bulldogs can lift from wooden-spooners in 2008 to minor premiers this year. The match means little for the Tigers, who are playing for pride only.
Key: How will Holdsworth handle the strain of being the chief playmaker? Hooker Michael Ennis needs to step up to take some pressure off the new halfback.
Tip: BULLDOGS
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v PARRAMATTA at Jubilee Oval, 7.35pm
Head to head: Eels 10, Dragons 7, drawn 1
Last clash: Dragons 22 bt Eels 8 at Parramatta Stadium (Rd 5, 2009)
Tab SportsBet: St George Illawarra $1.80 Parramatta $2.
FootyTAB: Parramatta +2.5.
Everyone wants to watch Parramatta play their thrilling brand of football heading into the finals. On the back of seven straight wins and with their confidence sky-high, the Eels will fancy their chances against a Dragons outfit trying to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat. You’d have to be living on a different planet not to know that Jarryd Hayne is playing out of this world. But, interestingly, Dragons pivot Jamie Soward this week nominated his opposite number Daniel Mortimer as the danger man for his team. Mortimer’s kicking game has been outstanding of late and his decision-making has been mature beyond his 20 years. St George Illawarra coach Wayne Bennett will have his players fired up after South Sydney fans chanted “chokers” after the Rabbitohs’ shock win at ANZ Stadium. The Eels haven’t won at Kogarah in 14 years.
Key: The battle of the five-eighths will be a cracker. Both Mortimer and Soward have been sensational for their respective teams this year.
Tip: EELS
SATURDAY
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS v MELBOURNE STORM at Mt Smart Stadium, 7.30pm
Head to head: Storm 11, Warriors 10, Drawn 2
Last clash: Storm 14 drew with Warriors 14 at Olympic Park (Rd 7, 2009)
TAB SportsBet: Melbourne $1.30 Warriors $3.40.
FootyTAB: Warriors +9.5.
The stakes are high for Melbourne, who will likely surrender a home qualifying final if they suffer defeat here. The Warriors are out of finals running and will have nothing to lose in their last home game of the season. They certainly won’t fear the Storm, who have two losses and a draw from their last three matches against the Auckland-based club. Warriors backs Manu Vatuvei (knee) and Jerome Ropati (shoulder) have been ruled out for Stacey Jones’ farewell game but speedster Kevin Locke returns from a hamstring injury. Strike weapon Greg Inglis showed how important he’ll be for the Storm in their finals campaign as he carved up the Roosters last weekend.
Key: The Warriors have too many injuries to their strong backs and will lack their normal physical presence to upset Melbourne.
Tip: STORM
MANLY v GOLD COAST at Brookvale Oval, 7.30pm
Head to head: Manly 3 Titans 1
Last clash: Titans won 18-17 at Skilled Park (Rd 11, 2009).
TAB SportsBet: Manly $1.30 Gold Coast $3.40.
FootyTAB: Gold Coast +8.5.
If the Dragons cool down the hottest team in the NRL by ending Parramatta’s seven-game streak on Friday night the Titans will be playing for a shot at second place here. Manly were anything but impressive against the Sharks last week, getting out of jail with a last minute try after Cronulla toiled for much of the match with 12 men. Brookvale Oval may just give the Sea Eagles the edge although the Titans would fancy their chances of causing an upset after winning their past four games and performing fairly well in Sydney this season. The loss of in-form prop Jason King takes a little oomph out of Manly’s pack making the Titans job a little easier up the middle.
Key: The battle of the little men Matt Orford and Scott Prince who have such an influence over their forwards and wide runners.
Tip: Manly
CRONULLA v SOUTH SYDNEY at Toyota Stadium at 7.30pm
Head to head: Sharks 39, Rabbitohs 31, drawn 3.
Last clash: South Sydney won 32-26 at ANZ Stadium (Rd 7 2009).
TAB Sportsbet: Cronulla $1.80 South Sydney $2.00.
FootyTAB: South Sydney +2.5
If you didn’t feel sorry for Cronulla last week you don’t have a heart. They were the better side with 12 players for most of the contest but lost on the bell to Manly who struggled all day. If you are a Rabbitohs fan you’d still be crying in your beer wondering how on earth they could have missed the finals after the way they disposed of the Dragons last weekend. Cronulla can drag teams into their style of play but Souths like to throw caution to the wind. The Sharks have an opportunity to off-load the wooden spoon to the Roosters if they spring an upset.
Key: Cronulla have to be very good at shutting down Rabbitoh runners Issac Luke and Chris Sandow around the rucks and control John Sutton’s off-loading to his support players.
Tip: South Sydney
SUNDAY
SYDNEY v COWBOYS at SFS, 2pm
Head to head: Roosters 19, Cowboys 4.
Last clash: Cowboys won 24-22 at Dairy Farmers (Rd 15 2009).
TAB Sportsbet: Roosters $1.85 Cowboys $1.95.
FootyTAB: Cowboys +2.5.
Two teams out of the finals, two teams with seemingly nothing to play for. Wrong. The Roosters have two huge reasons to win. Firstly they want to send off one of their all-time favourite players Craig Fitzgibbon on a winning note and secondly, they don’t want the stigma of finishing with the wooden spoon which they can avoid by ending the Cowboys disappointing season on a losing note. The Roosters have had the wood on the Cowboys, winning 19 of their 23 clashes and they could find them on a flat note after Brisbane ended their finals dreams last weekend in mentally tough clash. Still, with Mad Monday looming, it’s a tough one to call.
Key: Whether the Roosters can cash in on the emotion of Fitzgibbon’s last game or whether the “winner” in Johnathan Thurston will get the Cowboys across the line.
Tip: Cowboys.
NEWCASTLE v PENRITH at EnergyAustralia Stadium at 3pm
Head to head: Knights 16, Panthers 11, drawn 3.
Last clash: Knights 30 bt Penrith Panthers 18 at CUA Stadium (Rd 18, 2008).
TAB Sportsbet: Newcastle $1.45 Penrith $2.65.
FootyTAB: Penrith +6.5.
Talk about all or nothing. The winner makes the finals, the losers go home for 2009. The Knights shocker to Canberra last weekend opened the door for Penrith to have one last roll of the finals dice. Oh how Penrith would love to have big Petero Civoniceva playing in this game. Everything however is stacked in the Knights’ favour. Sunday afternoon, at home, a big Novocastrian crowd in their corner, it all adds up to Newcastle heading to the finals. Penrith have the team to get the job done but too many times this year players have gone missing in action.
Key: Jarrod Mullen needs come out of his shell and assert himself early before Penrith can get rolling.
Tip: Newcastle.
BRISBANE v RAIDERS at Suncorp Stadium at 7pm
Head to head: Brisbane 20, Raiders 15, 1 draw.
Last clash: Canberra won 56-0 in Canberra (Rd 21, 2009).
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $1.20 Canberra $4.00.
Five weeks ago Canberra embarrassed Brisbane 56-0 yet the Broncos are hot favourites to square up at Suncorp on Sunday night in the final game of the 2009 minor premiership. Why? Because since that humiliation Brisbane have found form with four straight wins and now look like a genuine finals team with heir big guns Lockyer, Hodges, Wallace and Hunt all firing and giant match-winner Israel Folau back from an ankle injury. The Raiders turned it on last weekend against a flat Newcastle at home and there’s no doubting they have the size up front and the attacking flair to give Brisbane a real fright if the Broncos defence takes a night off. That however would seem unlikely so close to the finals. The return of Nick Kenny up front has helped Brisbane’s go forward but it has been their line speed and willingness to work hard in defence that has turned things around for the Broncos.
KEY: Brisbane’s’s attitude. It’s back along with their confidence and they will not have forgotten the humiliation the Raiders inflicted on them easily.
Tip: Brisbane.
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