Preview of AFL semi-finals.
FRIDAY
Second Semi-Final – WESTERN BULLDOGS v BRISBANE LIONS at MCG, 7.45pm
Head to head: Western Bulldogs 23, Brisbane 16
Head to head in finals: Brisbane 2, Western Bulldogs 0
Last time: Western Bulldogs 15.12 (102) bt Brisbane 12.12 (84) R20 2009 Gabba
TAB Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs $1.25, Brisbane $3.75
Sportingbet: Western Bulldogs $1.27, Brisbane $3.85
For a coaching novice, Michael Voss has proved pretty adept at the mind games in his first finals campaign. Declared that many of his big names would almost certainly miss the elimination final against Carlton, only for Simon Black, Daniel Merrett and Daniel Bradshaw to make Lazarus-like recoveries and play key roles in the win. Now Voss says his Lions are being treated like the ugly ducklings of the six teams still in contention. In Bradshaw and skipper Jonathan Brown (who is a certainty to play, whether or not he has a fractured eye socket) the Lions boast the only two match-winning key forwards in this match. But the Bulldogs look stronger in most other positions and that should be enough. The Doggies made one change to the side that was beaten by Geelong in the qualifying final, as midfielder Tim Callan replaced forward Josh Hill. The Lions made three changes: Jed Adcock, the retiring Tim Notting and Josh Drummond all won recalls, and Scott Harding (foot), Cheynee Stiller and Jason Roe made way.
Key: After leaving the Lions in acrimonious circumstances three years ago, Jason Akermanis would love nothing more than to put one over his former teammates in a final.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.
SATURDAY
First Semi-Final – COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE at MCG, 7.30pm
Head to head: Collingwood 20, Adelaide 11
Head to head in finals: Collingwood 2, Adelaide 0
Last time: Collingwood 13.11 (89) bt Adelaide 9.14 (68) R19 2009 AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $2.15, Adelaide $1.68
Sportingbet: Collingwood $2.15, Adelaide $1.73
The Crows come into this match on a high having booted 53 goals in their last two matches – a remarkable return from a side with a long-standing reputation for lacking a cutting edge up forward. Jason Porplyzia, Kurt Tippett, Brett Burton and Co. shape as a real handful for any defence. And Ivan Maric is doing a pretty good job covering their supposed deficiencies in the ruck. Collingwood really need a few of their better forwards – be it Alan Didak, Travis Cloke, John Anthony or Leon Davis – to kick multiple goals if they are going to match it with the new-look, freewheeling Crows. Much could depend on the Pies’ injuries, as Anthony Rocca (ankle), Scott Pendlebury (leg), Josh Fraser (knee) and Dayne Beams (calf) were all forced out, and John McCarthy dropped. A young quintet in Cameron Wood, Brent Macaffer, Sharrod Wellingham, Brad Dick and Tyson Goldsack are the replacements. The Crows recalled tagger Robert Shirley for Richard Douglas.
Key: The absence of the silky-skilled Pendlebury will make it that much harder for Collingwood’s hard-working midfield to hold sway in the clearances.
Tip: Adelaide by 15 points.
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