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Brumbies' Stirling Mortlock (left) and Waratahs' Lote Tuqiri take to the air in the Super 14 rugby match at Canberra Stadium, Friday, March 13, 2009. The Brumbies beat the Waratahs 21-11. AAP Image/Alan Porritt
At the launch of the NSW Waratahs’ 2010 Super 14 season, officials were happy to play down expectations about how their team will perform this year, with public utterances of confidence. But privately they are convinced that this is the Waratahs’ year.
The sales pitch for Waratahs tickets reflects this, with the punchline: It’s Our Time.
Last year the Waratahs were one try off a finals placing.
They won all three of their matches in South Africa, the only time this has been done by any Australian or New Zealand team. They won more matches than the Crusaders.
But they did not win enough bonus points, and especially early on in the season, played in a negative way that turned off supporters and the media.
This year, the coaching staff is into its second season and has a better understanding of what it takes to complete a successful Super 14 ‘journey.’ They have learned, for instance, that playing a battering ram at inside centre like Tom Carter does not help the continuity game the Waratahs are aspiring to play.
More importantly, the squad has been given an impetus from a series of excellent additions.
The key new signings are Berrick Barnes and the try-scoring machine Drew Mitchell. Barnes will give the Waratahs a world class five-eighths for the first time in Super Rugby. Mitchell should ensure that tries are scored from breaks made by the clever and incisive running of the inside backs.
The pack did well last year and in the trial matches has been over-powering its opponents.
In Benn Robinson, the side has a world class prop who lifts the entire pack with his combination of mongrel, scrumming skills and energy around the field on attack (he has one of the best catch and pass games in the side) and defence.
The Waratahs play only six matches at home. But they also play only two matches in South Africa – against the Sharks and the Bulls.
I am the only Greek I know who is not a gambling man, but the odds against the Waratahs on the TAB Sportsbet of $13 – $1 seem to be so outrageous that a habit of a lifetime might have to be broken.
The TAB Sportsbet market is: $3.50 on the Crusaders, $5 ACT Brumbies, $6 Bulls, $9 Hurricanes, $10 Chiefs, $11 Blues, $13 Waratahs and Sharks, $14 Stormers, $81 Reds, Force, Highlanders, $126 Cheetahs, $251 Lions.
The bookies put their money where there mouth is so you have to respect their judgment on these matters. But they seem to rely a lot on past history with the market they have set.
Their first three sides are three of only four teams (the Blues are the fourth side) that have won a Super rugby title.
The Crusaders, with Daniel Carter and the addition of a new superstar winger Zac Guilford, who should give his team some easy tries, look to be a good bet.
The Bulls, too, with Fourie du Preez, with Carter, one of the great backs in the history of rugby, should be contenders.
But they have lost Bryan Habana to the Stormers. In my view, Habana was about 80 per cent of the Bulls kicking game and it will be interesting to see if the team adjusts and runs more as it did when it annihilated the Chiefs in last year’s final.
The Sharks and Waratahs are relegated to a seventh position in favouritism, behind even the Blues.
My first fearless prediction for 2010 is that the Blues will play some fantastic rugby and some awful rugby that will keep them out of the finals.
On paper, at least, the Sharks and the Waratahs seem like sides that have been unfairly written off by the bookies.
The Waratahs, as I’ve observed, appear to have ticked all the boxes needed for a successful season. The playing list of the Sharks, too, suggests that coach John Plumtree should have a rewarding season.
There are players like Bismarck du Plessis, Juan Martin Hernandez, Adrian Jacobs, Ryan Kankowski, Rory Kockett, Tednai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira, Odaw Ndungane and Ruan Pienaar. A squad with these players in it should be a finals side.
The Highlanders are a side, too, that could surprise.
Last season they lost a number of matches by 3 points or less. They have a strong pack with the All Black Tom Donnelly certain to be a strength in the lineout. They have some of the most talented and exciting young backs currently going around in New Zealand rugby.
Israel Dagg (what a great NZ rugby name!) is a talented fullback. Robbie Robinson may be as good as Aaron Cruden (the Hurricanes great new talent) as a five-eights. Winger Ben Smith was a surprise All Black on the European tour and then revealed himself to be an excellent, all-round player.
Going back to the Australian sides, I’m surprised that the ACT Brumbies are ranked so high.
Admittedly the addition of Matt Giteau is a plus. But Giteau was not able to lead the Western Force (which had a better squad in my view than the Brumbies) into the finals. There doesn’t seem to be much depth in the Brumbies squad and the pack, apparently, was monstered by the Waratahs in their trial game.
The Western Force was dealt a terrible blow with the long-term injury to Andre Pretorius. The team has some prodigious young talent in James O’Connor and David Pocock. But there is not much depth in the squad.
Part of the fun of the pre-season posturing is to make predictions, knowing that the future rarely unfurls in an expected pattern. So here goes: the Crusaders, Bulls and Waratahs are finals sides, for sure.
The Hurricanes, Sharks and the Highlanders are most likely (in my view) to contest that fourth position.
And the winner of the 2010 Super 14 title? I fall back on a mantra that has served me well in the past when I have been asked for a prediction: “We’re having the tournament to find out the answer to that.”
Game on!