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New Zealand Blues' Joe Rokocoko catches the ball during their Super 14 Rugby match against Australia Waratahs in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, March 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Paul Seiser)
Let’s just whisper this right now: but the ACT Brumbies defeating the Chiefs, the Queensland Reds overwhelming the Cheetahs and the NSW Waratahs snatching an exciting victory over the Blues with a hand-of-God interception, there is a distinct possibility that two Australian sides will make the Super 14 finals this year.
The points table is slightly complicated by the fact a number of the sides in contention have experienced their byes (the Bulls, the Sharks, the Crusaders and the Reds). The Waratahs and the Brumbies have yet to have their bye.
The point here is that the teams which have had their bye round have a potential 4 more points to be added to their present tally.
Right now, though, the table with seven rounds played and six to go reads like this: Bulls 28, Stormers 23, Crusaders 23, Waratahs 23, Brumbies 21 and the Reds 19.
The Reds, potentially, on 23 points, along with the real 23 points of the Waratahs are 2 points (in theory only) ahead of the Brumbies.
For two Australian teams to make the Super 14 finals, either the Stormers or the Crusaders have to fall away from their present standings.
I was talking to a rugby expert who knows a lot about South African rugby at the SFS on Saturday night before the Waratahs – Blues match. We were discussing the likely teams for the finals.
We both agreed that the Bulls were certainties for the finals, and the most likely winners of the tournament. The only proviso was how the Bulls might get on away from South Africa. The solid victory over the game Western Force side revealed that the Bulls will get through their Australasian stint in good shape.
I expressed a doubt about the Crusaders, given that they have yet to play in South Africa. My expert reckoned that the Crusaders would emerge as the best of the New Zealand sides and, therefore, a finals side.
He expressed grave doubts about the Stormers to make the finals. He argued that they have yet to make their Australasian tour. He thought, also, that the Stormers didn’t have a strong reserve bench of players if one of their stars like Shalk Burger got injured.
Round 8 starts with the Hurricanes playing the Crusaders at Wellington. This match will decide whether the Hurricanes have any chance of making of the finals. It should be remembered that the Hurricanes, like the Chiefs, have had a schedule that did the team no favours.
The Chiefs had to come back from South Africa and play the Reds, at Hamilton, on a Friday night. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs ran out of steam after about 20 minutes.
The Hurricanes had to play the Sharks at Wellington last Saturday with the Sharks having been in New Zealand for two weeks and the home side having to travel all the way back from South Africa.
This weekend, the Sharks have to fly back to South Africa to play the Reds, who have been in the Republic for two weeks. This is bizarre and rather unfair scheduling. It raises the question: who does the scheduling and why are obvious injustices allowed for some sides?
If I was forced to make a prediction (which I am reluctant to offer given my appalling tipping record on The Roar) about the most likely Australian teams this season to make the finals, I would plump for the Reds (unlucky losers to the Waratahs and perpetrators of a thrashing to the Crusaders) and the Waratahs.
The Waratahs – Brumbies at the SFS on April 24, where a number of Roarers are going to get together before and after the match, is shaping up to be a key match for the Australian sides.
The week after that the Brumbies play the Reds at Canberra is another key match up for the Australian sides.
There are, however, so many variables left in the tournament (can the Chiefs or the Blues get their season on track? Will the Waratahs endure their traditional Wara-wobbles?) that talk of Australian teams making the finals must be muted for now.
So just quietly and between us, there is the possibility of two Australian teams in the Super 14 finals …