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Queensland Reds player Digby Ioane (centre) during the Super 14 rugby match between the Queensland Reds and the Bulls of South Africa at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Saturday, April 17, 2010. The Reds defeated the Bulls 19-12. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
The sensational Reds victory over the Bulls, in one of the best Super Rugby matches ever, has thrown open the finals possibilities. The top seven sides, in theory at least, are now in contention.
The table for the magnificent seven now reads: Crusaders and Bulls 34, Stormers 33, Reds 30, Waratahs 29, Brumbies 26, Blues 25.
The Hurricanes (22) claim that they have a theoretical chance but their brain-dead play against a lacklustre Brumbies side at Canberra suggests that any momentum will be stopped sooner or later by inept play and tactics.
I would expect the Waratahs to monster the Brumbies at the ANZ Stadium on Saturday night, which should put Brumbies supporters out of their finals expectation misery.
The Hurricanes have the most lethal backline in the tournament. So what did their halfback Tyson Keats do most of the match? Kick the ball away to the Brumbies.
The Brumbies were not slick enough to capitalise on these dreadful tactics. Matt Giteau is playing like a former great player who knows he has lost his genius for broken field running.
I make these points because the Reds and the Stormers both showed how the new/old interpretation of the tackled ball law (the tackled player MUST be allowed to place the ball) has changed the whole zeigeist of rugby.
The ball now should be treasured, not kicked away. We are back, if teams and coaches will only realise this, to the days of unlimited tackles. If a side is good enough in taking the ball into the tackle and contesting the ruck it can hold on to the ball indefinitely. The Reds often ran deep kickoffs back at the Bulls for many phases before kicking for territory.
The Reds also ran every high kick back at the Bulls. They forced the big Bulls forwards to run and run and run, until they were out on their feet at times. It was as if the Bulls were confronted with 15 matadors who teased them into false and tiring charges by clever, intelligent ball-in-hand play.
A little insight into the cleverness of the Reds tactics came when Ewen McKenzie revealed that they used Will Genia to probe the blindside and keep the defence honest on this side of the field, while Quade Cooper was given a licence to run things on the open side.
Two other points: first, Genia out-played Fourie du Preez who in my opinion has been the best halfback in world rugby for a number of year. Second, the Reds pack held its own against the big Bulls pack and created some confusion in the Bulls lineout.
They were able to double-team Victor Matfield so effectively that an errant Bulls throw was snaffled and the backs put Rod Davies away in the corner for the clinching score. Teams need good set piece skills to be championship contenders. The Reds, even though there are no current Wallabies in their pack, seem to have these skills.
This victory, too, was achieved with a South African referee, Marius Jonker, who made a schoolboy howler in allowing a ball to go through the scrum to be picked up and planted over the Reds line by a Bulls forward. Also, the Reds returned from South Africa during the week before the match.
Next Friday’s match at Lang Park against the storming Stormers, hopefully before a huge crowd, will be a definitive test for the Reds. If they can win this match, they are virtually assured of a finals place.
In all likelihood this could be a home final as they play, after the Stormers, the Brumbies at Canberra, the Hurricanes at Wellington and the Highlanders at Brisbane in a comparatively easy run of matches.
The Stormers on their showing against the Chiefs, who were admittedly pathetic with their skills and tactics, suggested that they might be the best of the South African sides. They have a toughish run home, though, playing after the next week the Crusaders at Cape Town, the Sharks at Durban and the Bulls at Cape Town.
Working for the Reds is the fact that their main competition for finals spots, the Bulls, Stormers and the Crusaders all play each other. And the result of the last pool round game of the 2010 tournament, the Sharks-Bulls match, could as in previous years be crucial as to the make-up of the finals.
The two Australian teams in the hunt – the Reds and the Waratahs – have easier matches at the end of the tournament than the other main contenders, the Bulls, Stormers, and Crusaders.
The Blues, too, although they have three matches in South Africa (against the Sharks, the Cheetahs and Lions) and finish with a match against the Chiefs at Eden Park, have potentially a great run home. But this team is so flakey and so far behind the leading five teams that you’d be foolish to believe that they can play with any consistency after another hot-cold season to blast their way through the pack.
I suggested a couple of week ago that we are looking at two Australian teams in the finals. This suggestion is more than ever in play after the Reds’ terrific victory. But don’t ask me right now to predict the other two teams in the finals.
It’ll all be a bit clearer, or perhaps not, after next week’s round. What we can say is that this is one of the best Super Rugby tournaments we’ve had since the journey began in 1996, and that the Reds victory was one of the great wins in that time.