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Preview of AFL round 11 games (all times local).
FRIDAY, June 4
RICHMOND v ST KILDA at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm
Head to head: Richmond 103 St Kilda 67 Drawn 2
Last time: St Kilda 13.14 (92) bt Richmond 5.6 (36) R13 2009, Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $6 St Kilda $1.13
Sportingbet: Richmond $6.15 St Kilda $1.13
It’s probably premature to say St Kilda have weathered the storm sans Nick Riewoldt, but last week’s signs were encouraging. The Saints blew Adelaide away after half-time and amassed their highest score since round two. They are still yet to get that big-man presence in attack, but the spread of goal-kicking midfielders and crumbers underlines what sort of job Richmond face. The Tigers will enter on a natural high following their breakthrough win of the season and will be keen to give retiring ruckman Troy Simmonds a fitting send-off, but there remains a gulf in class between the sides.
Key: What effect will last week’s rain and heavy conditions in Adelaide have on the young Tiger legs?
Tip: St Kilda by 48 points.
SATURDAY, June 5
CARLTON v MELBOURNE at the MCG 2.10pm
Head to head: Carlton 111 Melbourne 88 Drawn 2
Last time: Carlton 24.9 (153) bt Melbourne 15.6 (96) R21 2009, Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Carlton $1.38 Melbourne $3.05
Sportingbet: Carlton $1.37 Melbourne $3.15
Carlton have improved markedly since these teams played in the last round of 2007, when the Blues’ prize for losing was landing the No.1 draft pick. But Carlton are nowhere near the stage where they can even think about whistling Sweet Georgia Brown. Which is why coach Brett Ratten was unhappy sensing a bit of lairising in last week’s win over West Coast. This is a game the Blues cannot afford to drop if they want to keep in touch with the top four. Here they boast a better side, especially with Jarrad Waite back from suspension. Melbourne were shown up by Geelong last week, but regained young guns Tom Scully and Jack Trengove, who will do battle with Carlton skipper Chris Judd.
Key: Matthew Bate’s return to the Melbourne forward line is welcome after last week’s struggles. Will he be enough?
Tip: Carlton by 30 points.
ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE at AAMI Stadium 2.40pm
Head to head: Adelaide 15 Fremantle 10
Last time: Fremantle 17.16 (118) bt Adelaide 9.8 (62) R1 2010, Subiaco Oval
TAB Sportsbet: Adelaide $2.88 Fremantle $1.42
Sportingbet: Adelaide $2.90 Fremantle $1.42
The fact the round-one clash was played in Perth probably disguised one of the most significant results of 2010. Fremantle’s thumping win in March served as both a pointer to the rise of the Dockers and also the demise of the Crows. Ten rounds on, this return meeting is a game between second-top and second-last. Fremantle’s crushing of North Melbourne last weekend was another illustration of the Dockers’ power this year, while the Crows fell away badly against St Kilda. Adelaide veteran Tyson Edwards plays his farewell game, but Fremantle are a win in Adelaide away from a full house, having already notched wins in Perth, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney this year.
Key: Remember when Fremantle superstar Matthew Pavlich was linked with a return to his native Adelaide? The Crows can only dream of having someone in such red-hot form.
Tip: Fremantle by 27 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE V BRISBANE LIONS at Etihad Stadium 7.10pm
Head to head: North Melbourne 9 Brisbane 12 Drawn 1
Last time: Brisbane 17.14 (116) bt North Melbourne 11.9 (75) R17 2009, Gabba
TAB Sportsbet: North Melbourne $2.40 Brisbane $1.57
Sportingbet: North Melbourne $2.45 Brisbane $1.56
North coach Brad Scott put the acid on his men after a thrashing at the hands of Fremantle. But if only the Kangaroos had someone capable of igniting, flaring, sparking and burning. The Roos are limping towards the halfway mark of the season, in 13th spot and coming off two successive big defeats. In contrast, the Lions found their mojo in the nick of time with their comeback win over Collingwood and can get back into the eight win a win. Brisbane have no shortage of inspiration – Jonathan Brown can kick monster goals on one leg, veterans Simon Black and Luke Power still have it and Brendan Fevola can still be a threat even if quiet early.
Key: On a forecast cold Melbourne night, North’s fans could be out-numbered by Lions supporters given the sides’ respective form lines.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 29 points.
WEST COAST V GEELONG at Subiaco Oval 7.40pm
Head to head: West Coast 21 Geelong 18 Drawn 1
Last time: Geelong 15.9 (99) bt West Coast 11.11 (77) R11 2009, Subiaco Oval
TAB Sportsbet: West Coast $6 Geelong $1.13
Sportingbet: West Coast $6.75 Geelong $1.11
Geelong have dealt West Coast some hidings in recent times, but coach Mark Thompson told his players to chill out after they last beat West Coast, given they struggled for concentration. So almost a year on, what’s changed for both sides? The Cats top the ladder, look in magnificent touch and their major worry is off-field; whether Gary Ablett will re-sign. They are even stronger in attack through James Podsiadly, who made his debut at Subiaco, in round three against Fremantle, and returns on the back of his fourth five-goal haul. The Eagles are still a young, talented team, but cannot run out games, especially against top-flight opposition. Coach John Worsfold says he isn’t worried about his future, but this clash will give him an idea on how much work he has ahead.
Key: Without Darren Glass in defence, West Coast are in danger of being hurt.
Tip: Geelong by 31 points.
SUNDAY, June 6
SYDNEY V ESSENDON at the SCG 1.10pm
Head to head: Sydney 78 Essendon 129 Drawn 1
Last time: Essendon 15.17 (107) bt Sydney 10.12 (72) R15 2009, SCG
TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $1.77 Essendon $2.05
Sportingbet: Sydney $1.75 Essendon $2.10
Essendon have turned their season around in the past three weeks, with impressive wins over St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs and a comfortable defeat of Richmond in between. There is pace to burn among the Bombers, but there has also been good displays of hard work and tackling pressure. Sydney’s losing run stretched to four last Sunday, but the signs were actually encouraging for coach Paul Roos. His younger players, notably left-footer Daniel Hannebery, were impressive in the narrow loss to Hawthorn, and there was a much better competitive effort than in the previous three defeats. A loss here though could knock them out of the eight.
Key: An under-manned Sydney defence and one of Paddy Ryder or David Hille beside big forward Scott Gumbleton might make this the break-out game the Bombers faithful are craving.
Tip: Essendon by 11 points.
HAWTHORN V PORT ADELAIDE at the MCG 2.10pm
Head to head: Hawthorn 6 Port Adelaide 14
Last time: Port Adelaide 18.13 (121) bt Hawthorn 14.19 (103) R18 2009, AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Hawthorn $1.40 Port Adelaide $2.95
Sportingbet: Hawthorn $1.38 Port Adelaide $3.10
Neither side will look back on round 10 with fondness, although to be fair, at least Hawthorn found a way to win. The Hawks held off a fast-finishing Sydney, but could have stitched up a comfortable win much earlier had they not kicked so badly for goal. Their worries for this week are covering the suspended Lance Franklin in attack and matching the hardness Campbell Brown (knee) gives in defence. Port scored a woeful 3.12 in the rain and heavy conditions last week, which gifted Richmond their first win of the season, and have now undone their good work from early in the year with three straight losses. The Power can at least draw inspiration from two impressive wins over the Hawks last year.
Key: With Franklin out, fellow tall Jarryd Roughead is overdue for a big game for the Hawks.
Tip: Hawthorn by 13 points.
COLLINGWOOD V WESTERN BULLDOGS at Etihad Stadium 4.40pm
Head to head: Collingwood 101 Western Bulldogs 42 Drawn 1
Last time: Collingwood 19.15 (129) bt Western Bulldogs 13.15 (93) R1 2010, Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $1.73 Western Bulldogs $2.10
Sportingbet: Collingwood $1.70 Western Bulldogs $2.18
Both sides are under pressure, with Collingwood coming off two straight losses and the Bulldogs having fallen out of the top four and having spent a fortnight dealing with the fallout of the latest Jason Akermanis controversy. The Magpies’ high-scoring ways early in the season, which included a convincing round-one win over the Dogs, have faltered of late. But they could be helped by the return from injury of forwards Paul Medhurst and Leon Davis. The Dogs have problems of their own, with the omission of Akermanis, as he struggles with form and injury, further depleting an attack missing key figures Robert Murphy and Brad Johnson. In some meetings over past seasons, the Bulldogs have had too much midfield run for Collingwood, but that appears no longer the case, given the bolstering of the Magpies’ midfield this season.
Key: Shutting down Barry Hall will be a key Collingwood focus.
Tip: Collingwood by 15 points.
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