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For the NRL to grow and ward off increased competition from AFL in heartland areas, there are only two options: either the NRL cuts weak teams or expands into areas that can subsidize the weak teams and grow the game.
I believe the days of forced mergers and culling are over.
No one wants that pain again, and it will only contain costs, not increase revenues as TV demands more games to broadcast. Unless a team is willing to relocate, the existing 16 teams will remain in situ.
Therefore, the NRL must expand to increase the number of games and revenues, and like any business, you must grow with minimal risk.
Looking at areas of population sufficiently close to a stadium (say 1.5 hours travel), the candidates would be: Central Coast (including North Shore); Adelaide; Melbourne(2); Perth; Brisbane(2); Central QLD; PNG and Wellington.
Assuming all agree that Melbourne (2) will never happen, and Adelaide, PNG and Wellington are at least ten years away (barring voluntary relocation), that leaves Central Coast, Perth, Brisbane (2) and Central QLD.
All have positive points, and I would love to see all included in perhaps two phases over the next five-six years.
As a battle-scarred Bear, I am an optimist, so I will not point out negatives in other bids, just advantages of the Central Coast Bears.
1. A rugby league heartland with no NRL team. The third largest junior league in Australia, with no local pathway to the NRL. No one doubts they will get 15,000-20,000 to Bluetongue stadium, and 20,000 to the one proposed game at North Sydney Oval v Manly each year.
2. Potential revenue stream.
The NRL itself concedes they have lost 400,000 supporters of league with the exclusion of the Bears.
There’s an instant addition to increased TV ratings/revenues, Foxtel subscriptions etc on top of all those new residents within the 1,000,0000 catchment area unfamiliar with NRL, or having a local team to support. In the 1990’s the Bears were the second most watched NRL team on TV, with lots of support in QLD where an excellent recruitment/development system, still fondly remembered, was in place.
3. Zero risk. I understand the Central Coast have more sponsors already than some existing NRL clubs (more announcements in coming weeks), and are being approached directly by companies wishing to buy into such a great ‘feel good’ story.
Interest is coming from all the key commercial centres within the Central Coast’s catchment – North Sydney, Chatswood, North Ryde and Gosford – a formidable stable of commercial power few NRL teams can match. The passion is incredible for this team – you don’t know what you’ve lost until its gone.
4. Low costs. Travel to the Central Coast is relatively easy for all NSW teams, hence opposition costs for the majority are reduced, plus the Central Coast will bring an away army of Central Coast/North Shore supporters to all Sydney and Newcastle away games, increasing crowd attendances and revenues for the weaker Sydney clubs.
The clubs infrastructure is all in place – stadium, management, coach, jersey and other merchandise, financial memberships growing daily, website and facebook site with more members than many NRL teams.
5. Opposition code threats. As a resident of the catchment area, I witness the growth of football and AFL with some alarm. 10km from the city, kids rarely wear NRL jerseys whereas fifteen years ago Bears jerseys abounded.
The Central Coast Mariners is a Central Coast/north shore football team, so the model works. Luckily for Central Coast league supporters, they have a historic brand they can leverage corporate support off, to generate the revenue streams needed to survive in the NRL that otherwise would be impossible if the Central Coast stood alone.
6. Justice. Without getting too sentimental, the Bears never got a fair go at the conclusion of the Super League war (some of it self-inflicted), and the support from other club supporters, particularly Souths fans, for the bid has been truly heartening.
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