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The Springboks will beat the All Blacks in Wellington this weekend. But this will be as a result of experienced players rebounding after an embarrassing loss rather than out-playing the opposition with attacking flair.
The All Blacks are once again the most dominant force in world rugby, and look the most prepared for their home World Cup next year.
However, the second test in the Tri-Nations series provides the Springboks with the perfect opportunity to avenge their loss in Auckland.
Not only are they desperate to win in Wellington, they’re now buoyed by the fact that Bakkies Botha won’t be there to prematurely sink the 8 ball (lose the game before it’s over).
The Springboks were left surprised after the All Blacks dominated them for the majority of the first Test, their patience and measured game plan was unable to gain traction due to the sin binning of Botha.
Many people have criticized the ability and mobility of the Springbok forwards; however, neglect the fact that they were playing a man down during a crucial part of the match.
Players like Pierre Spies assumed the majority of the workload, which obviously wore them out and stifled their attacking ability.
Spies often looked lethargic, and for good reason. He had been forced to go into the red-zone and failed to recover which extinguished his impact on the match.
When Botha returned, his fire had gone out.
He looked embarrassed and concerned, obviously still thinking about leaving his team high and dry, but also about the fact that he would inevitably be suspended for his head butt on Jimmy Cowan.
The Springboks continued to play as if they had fourteen men since Botha was having almost nil effect: lumbering from to the breakdown with his tail between his legs.
It was obvious his head wasn’t there which affected the team as a whole.
Peter de Villiers would have been better off replacing Botha, his impact on the match complete after only a few minutes of play, and giving the man who would inevitably fill the role during his absence an opportunity to get acquainted.
The Springboks have since had a week to think about it, regroup and decide on a strategy to which will allow them to play their own style of rugby.
They were exposed against the All Blacks, however. The All Blacks style and tempo is something that I think they will struggle to replicate week in week out.
The high-octane rugby, which the All Blacks played, is also high risk.
A motivated and angry Springboks side will force them into mistakes and suffocate them with possession. Morne Steyne will pile on the points from anywhere and everywhere, which will allow the Springboks to play from the front.
This high-octane style of rugby is all well and good when you’ve got your noses in front, however, could prove difficult to execute when under pressure from a physical and motivated Springbok defence.
The All Blacks will then be forced into a knife fight that the Springboks will inevitably win, even without Botha.
There’s no doubt the All Blacks can continue to play with the attacking venom shown in the first Test. However, it will take some time to develop and get used to.
The Springboks are a formidable outfit. I just hope they don’t bully the All Blacks into a style of game they can’t win.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.