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The All Blacks’ comprehensive win in the first two Tri-Nations tests against the Springboks depended in part on crucial decisions made by the referees before the team that eventually dominated had scored a point.
Whatever the justice of the sin binning calls (and certainly the one in the second test seem anything but just) the effect was to undermine the South Africans using their favoured strategy of putting immense pressure on early and squeezing 6 or 9 points from the first quarter of the game. This approach usually involves no frills hard running by their massive forwards and strong backs, along high kicks and early attempts at drop goals to supplement the penalties their pressure works to provoke.
No team does this as with the muscular efficiency of the Springboks, and when it works (it normally does), it forces the opposition to play risky catch up rugby. South Africa are usually impregnable defensively, which makes that attempt difficult and dangerous.
In the first two tests, not only were key ball carriers in the bin (weakening the preferred method of attack while putting extra strain put on defense and the set pieces), the All Blacks scored 10 points in 10 minutes through their own skill and adventure.
By the time Botha and Roussow respectively returned, the script that the Boks try to write for test matches had been ruthlessly scrapped, and their team was in the far more uncomfortable position of having to show the same skill and adventure as its opponents.
It wasn’t able to do so in either test. Ironically, what had seemed a great strength (the use of strong ball carriers) was nullified in both tests by a massive defensive effort by the All Blacks and by the South African big men, too often dying with or losing the ball.
In contrast, the All Blacks repeatedly looked for support runners to carry on the movement. This was the result of a different mindset and superior handling and passing skills that enabled them to carry out what was a well-devised plan of continued attack – Read’s deft off-load to Jane and Weepu’s long, gloriously weighted pass that set up Muliaina’s try being only two of many examples.
Schalk Burger’s all too late try was one of the few times when South Africa used the ball to beat the man, but the failure of Burger’s loose forward partners to impose themselves on the game had much to do with a mentality that tries to bust through opponents rather than deceive or outflank them. It can work at close quarters, as Roussow’s try showed, but when the opposition tackles with the vigour and venom the All Blacks showed in these tests new ideas need to be tried.
What was apparent was that (until Pienaar came on) the Springboks had no plan B. Januarie’s sloppy handling kicking and Steyn’s unimaginative use of the ball (usually by foot but occasionally and ineffectively by hand) wasn’t helped by the midfield players plugging dully on, seemingly expecting to break tackles rather than beating their markers by guile.
Kirschner’s searing break in the second half showed that he at least has real attacking flair and skill, but it was telling that his break was so good and perhaps so unexpected that he left his support floundering.
It’s also illuminating that both the Springbok tries last night were scored by forwards, while the four All Black tries were scored by backs. Pace and vision triumphed over rigidity and strength.
Obviously, while there were pieces of individual brilliance by the All Black backs (Dagg’s trying recalling Christian Cullen’s ability to ride tackles through a freakish combination of strength, speed and balance), the whole team played with speed, enterprise and purpose. Four or five players vied for player of the match, so that where in the earlier tests Carter and McCaw stood out, in these two games all fifteen players stood up, as did their replacements. Even though Carter had a poor goal kicking game, who would swap him for Steyn?
It says a lot for the quality of their opponents that the All Blacks still needed to play far better than they had done in the June Tests to beat the Springboks, who against most other teams still would have dominated with their proven methods.
It’s intriguing to consider whether de Villiers will change their game plan and their players. Kieran Read’s superiority over Pierre Spies must be cause for real concern, as is the general play of John Smit. Rouw was decisively outplayed by McCaw, and while the All Blacks lineout was rickety they were able to stifle the South African rolling maul.
The absence of du Preez is the equivalent to that of Carter last year, if he was playing last night so much of the looseness in the Springbok’s attack would not have occurred.
Given Pienaar’s play when he came on it’s hard to imagine that Januarie will start again in the Tri-Nations, but Piennaar can be inconsistent and Genia will test him if both are selected.
Positional naivety should mean that even once his suspension is over, de Villiers won’t play on the wing again in this series.
The Springbok midfield also has to show far more than brute strength. But the real problem is Steyn, a very average fly half whose brilliance as a goal kicker saves him from being dropped, while simultaneously hamstringing those outside him. Steyn’s accuracy and the number of points he accumulates per game probably ensures that he’ll be retained unless the Boks lose to Australia, but he seemed a woeful figure on the field last night, not even able to attempt a drop goal. His inability to modify his general play will be noted by Robbie Deans.
The Springboks haven’t gone from being a very good side to being a bad one, but with the World Cup a year away, the form of some of the older players (even Matfield, so often the key to his side’s supremacy, and Habana, who looks lost without du Preez’s kicks to give him something to do) needs close scrutiny.
The team needs a new script; lucky for Peter de Villiers, Henry and company have shown that you don’t need to sack the old scriptwriter to achieve this. But wins against the Wallabies and a home win against the All Blacks are vital for him (and some of his selections) to survive beyond September 11, the hugely symbolic date for the last test in the series. That test is between the All Blacks and the Wallabies, so its result is beyond his control, but he needs to have his team in a position to grab what at this stage seems an unlikely series win.
Despite the humiliations of the last week, the title is still available for the South Africans, but they cannot stumble from here.
The All Blacks, by contrast, have a healthy buffer of points scored and bonus points gained as well as plenty of options in several positions. Better still, Henry has dropped the disruptive philosophy of putting a new team on every second week. And Sonny Bill waits tantalisingly in the wings. No wonder Henry has been making heroic if still not quite achieved efforts to crack something approaching what the rest of us recognise as a smile.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.