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No rest for the wicked. The Springboks get little reprieve from their disappointing tour of New Zealand as they prepare to continue their Tri Nation’s defence at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Saturday night.
The Wallabies will be looking to make the most of the Springboks’ disappointing form during the opening stages of the tournament and get their campaign off to a perfect start.
The Springboks have made nine changes to their squad for Saturday night’s must win game, four of the changes in the starting fifteen.
Ruan Pienaar comes in for Ricky Janurie, who falls out of the match 22 completely after poor performances during the two losses to the All Blacks. Gio Aplon replaces Jean De Villiers on the right wing, while Sharks’ loose forward, Ryan Kankowski, takes the place of Francois Louw.
BJ Botha is promoted to the starting side ahead of CJ Van der linde, who will come off the bench.
The remaining changes on the bench sees the inclusion of Juan De Jongh, Flip van der Merwe, Dewald Potgieter and Francois Hougaard.
Springbok coach Peter De Villiers said on Tuesday that his selections are a reflection of the fast paced nature of Suncorp Stadium: “Statistics show that Suncorp has the fastest playing surface in Super 14 and we have to be prepared for a faster game,” he said.
“We have two tough games behind us, but if we stick to our structures and use our opportunities I believe this team is capable of getting a result.”
The Wallabies announced a fairly predictable squad, with perhaps the only surprise being the inclusion of Drew Mitchell in the starting side after he was dropped from the squad by Wallabies coach Robbie Deans for under-performing in the June tests against England and Ireland.
Matt Giteau made the squad, despite speculation he would not be preferred over Reds inside centre Anthony Fainga. Rob Horne gets his first Tri Nations start at outside centre, while Adam Ashley Cooper starts at fullback.
James O’Connor will be starting on the right wing in the fourteen jersey, as a result.
The Springboks have not been successful at Suncorp in the past, conceding seven losses in a row at the Brisbane venue – the latest being last year’s 21 – 6 loss. Overall, the two countries have met on 71 occasions, with the Springboks winning 43, the Wallabies 27 and one draw.
So the teams have been announced and the stage is set.
Who is going to win and why?
History suggests the Wallabies. But it would seem history is wrong. The Springboks are wounded and angry after they were hammered by the All Blacks, amidst controversy. A statement which in itself may be controversial, depending on which team you bat for, figuratively speaking.
The inclusion of Ruan Pienaar in place of Ricky Janurie means the Springboks can play the game at a higher tempo and give Morne Steyn the space he needs to unleash the likes of Habana and Fourie. We can expect a lot of up and unders during the opening stages of play from the Springboks.
But I am sure we will see more running from the Boks as the game continues.
The Springboks will be looking to exploit weaknesses in some of the Wallabies less effective defenders. I believe the Boks have stuck with Olivier at 12 because he likes to run hard and straight and he will be aiming to run straight down Quad Coopers channel.
Cooper is not the best defender in world rugby, missing more than 30 percent of his tackles during the Super 14 and often being forced to make a move to fullback during set piece defence.
The Springboks’ big hard running forwards will be looking to simply overpower their smaller Wallaby counterparts.
Ruan Pienaars quicker service should suit this purpose and go a long way to ensuring a significantly improved Springbok performance. Gio Aplon will be a handful in attack and provide the pace that has been lacking.
The Wallabies on the other hand only have history to suggest that they have what it takes to win. Brilliant individual players such as James O’Connor and Adam Ashley Cooper are unlikely to win the game on their own.
The Wallabies simply lack the personal to compete at the collision zone because they are just too small. The All Blacks showed that beating the Springboks meant taking it to them upfront.
I don’t know that the Wallabies are capable of doing so.
My pick: Springboks by 45 to 10.
Big strong forwards will win the battle upfront and Ruan Pienaars service will prove the difference in attack and allow the Boks to capitalize on their considerable size advantage and the Wallabies weaker defenders.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.