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Kieran Read of the All Blacks breaks past the Wallabies defence during the first match of the Tri-Nation series, played at Etihad stadium, Melbourne, Saturday, July 31, 2010. (AAP Image/ Joe Castro)
The scary thing for the Wallabies going into the second Bledisloe Cup Test at Christchurch next Saturday is that the All Blacks were slightly off their best at Melbourne. Despite this, they scored 7 tries to 3, and more crucially were able to go up a gear in their attack virtually at will.
One remarkable statistic that bears this out is that they scored three tries to Dan Carter, Mils Muliaina and Joe Rokocovo and a penalty by Carter directly from four kick-offs. In a long career of watching big time rugby, I don’t think I have ever seen this number of tries scored by one side from kick-offs.
Occasionally, very occasionally in fact, you might get two. But three tries and a successful penalty suggests a superiority over an opponent that spells trouble, you would think, for the Wallabies at Christchurch.
A Sun-Herald sports sub was tough but accurate enough with his headline: Boys 28 – Men 49.
The difference between the All Blacks of this year and last year is quite astonishing. The coaching staff has got the team playing as commandingly as England did in 2002 and 2003. It is the most-capped All Blacks side ever. A number of the most experienced players were involved in the 2007 fiasco.
But there are new players (not selected in 2007) like the Franks brothers, Tom Donnelly, Kieran Read, Corry Jane and Ma’a Nonu who are giving the old hands the muscle, power and speed that has turned the side around this season.
In the words of Rod Macqueen before the Test, “this All Blacks side are on the verge of greatness.”
I had the pleasure of talking to a group of guests in the Clemenger BBDO box at Etihad Stadium before and during the Test along with New Zealand’s renaissance man Chris Laidlaw, great halfback, Rhodes Scholar, MP, noted radio broadcaster, and author.
The only real hope for the Wallabies, I suggested, lay in the fact that with 7 consecutive losses to the All Blacks they must be, in statistical terms at least, close to a victory. Moreover, the last 7-win streak by the All Blacks against the Wallabies was stopped at Melbourne in 2002.
This is a sort of variation of Peter FitzSimons’ intriguing theory that the All Blacks had already played 320 superb minutes of rugby against the Springboks and had, therefore, exhausted the amount of superb rugby any team can play in a season.
This was a good try by FitzSimons and myself.
The reality is that a team that wins this convincingly away from home, on a slippery surface that does not suit its fluid, hard-shouldered game, has a lot going for it. And Macqueen may well be right. How the All Blacks go in South Africa will be the acid test.
How can the Wallabies stop this juggernaut?
The first thing is that they have to believe they can. And as Robbie Deans pointed out, they played the last 37 minutes of the Test with Drew Mitchell off the field and held the All Blacks to a 14 – 15 score line.
What is more the Wallabies made most of the play in this period. So they have to believe that this shows they can compete with the All Blacks.
Another factor (or straw?) that can be grasped is that the Wallabies started off strongly and if James O’Connor had been been able to convert a long break into a try from the opening phases in the game the tenor of the match might, and I stress might, have been different.
I think that Robbie Deans has to change his pack around a bit.
Anthony Faingnaa should start at hooker. He is a busy player and the scrum seemed to go well enough with him there. His toughness and speed around the ruck area are badly needed.
Nathan Sharpe was taken off and replaced by Rod Simmons. Simmons needs to start, either with Sharpe or Dean Mumm. There is a compelling case, too, for Scott Higginbottom to come in as a flanker. Just for his size, I’d go with Sharpe, with the proviso that he rarely plays up to his weight.
Rocky Elsom can be moved to number 8. These changes should toughen up the pack and give it some more speed with David Pocock and Higginbottom leading the way.
The Wallabies missed Quade Cooper, and they will be a much better side when he comes back into the side after Christchurch. Matt Giteau made a slashing break in the opening seconds of the Test but that was it. Cooper would have challenged the defence and defeated it occasionally as well.
I would move Giteau back to inside centre (Macqueen’s option, too) and play Berrick Barnes at number 10 with strict instructions to keep his kicking to minimum. It was his attempted kick which Carter charged down (immediately after he’d been charged down by Drew Mitchell) which brought the All Blacks really into the Test.
With Rob Horne out, Adam Ashley-Cooper will probably be moved into the centres. We might see Cameron Shepherd on the wing in place of Drew Mitchell, who as a Roarer suggests should give away the bruiser boy haircut and let his playing reveal his toughness.
Kurtley Beale will probably go back to fullback where he played pretty well while he was on the field.
A big problem for the Wallabies right now is that they are playing dumb rugby and making stupid mistakes. For instance, following the yellow card given to Ben Franks, Giteau failed to find touch. The All Blacks ran the ball back, got some momentum and a try followed shortly afterwards.
Late in the first half, when Drew Mitchell was in the sin-bin for a tackle (?) that wasn’t replayed on my TV coverage, the referee Craig Joubert (who had an excellent game) called both captains and warned them that there were two many instances of a team preventing its opponents from taking quick taps or quick lineouts. The next infringement was going to be a yellow card, he said.
This was good strong refereeing. Richie McCaw went over to his players and told them in no uncertain terms what the requirement was. Rocky Elsom wandered away and seemingly did not tell anyone. There was a television shot of Drew Mitchell limbering up on the sideline seemingly unaware of this general warning.
Mitchell should have been paying attention because if a player is given two yellow cards, he immediately becomes a red card victim. I am always amazed how nonchalantly players ignore this yellow card peril. And some time after, early on in the second half, Mitchell cynically and slyly knocked the ball out of an All Black’s hands trying for a quick throw-in. Stupid, stupid, stupid!
The cruel thing about this is that Deans’ coaching career has been marked by turning players into clever, smart operators. Three of the All Blacks pack and Carter were all trained and identified by Deans.
Somehow in a week he has to turn a side that is being out-gunned and out-thought into a winning combination. And this team has to play in a city where the All Blacks invariably play well.
It’s getting close to miracle time this season for the Wallabies.