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If I was Graham Henry, I’d be a concerned man right now. Looking at the stats and the amazing performance of the All Blacks since the start of the international Test season for 2010, all I can say is they’re riding the crest of a wave.
Thus far, the All Blacks have swept aside Wales and Ireland.
After this, they made easy pickings of the world champion Springboks (with their internal politics possibly being their greatest enemy), followed by a ‘walk-over’ against The Wallabies – on a pitch which received more publicity in lead up to the game than the teams themselves.
A few reasons for the All Blacks’ dominance include the fact that they interpret the new rules better, and strategically they look to be on the front foot around loose mauls more often than not, even if they don’t go in with ball in hand.
From a Springbok point of view, there are conspiracy theories thrown around regarding ‘rigged games’, and fingers are being pointed at the cheat, Richie McCaw.
Wallaby analysts noted at the start of the season that they possibly lack in conditioning and can’t play the physical game required to beat teams like the All Blacks, with the Wallaby players being on average four kilograms smaller than a few years before.
But is there more to it?
The Wallabies have numerous injuries, the Boks have injuries, suspensions, and are yet to find a constantly performing loose three at the back of the scrum. At the same time, everything’s coming together for the All Blacks.
They have no injuries, no suspensions, and their combinations gel better than O’Neill’s hairdo.
Is everything going too well? Is history repeating itself?
The year leading up to the World Cup has proven to be an unpredictable one. And having a quick review of the statistics from 2006 (pre-2007 World Cup), I’d be one worried All Blacks coach:
In 2006, the All Blacks played 6, won 5, lost 1. They ended top of the log, Tri-Nations champions with a favourable point difference of a massive 67.
Australia ended second on the log, beating South Africa in Brisbane, and again in Sydney. South Africa in turn ended last, winning only 2 home games, one against each visiting team.
The All Blacks looked unstoppable. Déjà vu?
It’s a cycle the All Blacks are too familiar with, and besides the label ‘chokers’, the second term thrown around must be ‘peaking too soon’. Their players look to be in great condition, and their game plan looks to be unbreakable, but the Wallabies and Springboks have fourteen months to reflect, review, and analyse.
The Boks have been playing the Jake White 2007 strategy for three years now, and it’s time to re-invent their game.
The Wallabies have to keep the current combinations and blood the young players in time for the World Cup (and possibly get the boys on a high protein diet)
Come 2011, the All Blacks would definitely have lost the edge they currently possess, and can only hope that they have taken their strategies, combinations to the next level in effort to retain dominance.
I think the Wallabies and the Springboks are currently playing catch up rugby, but the All Blacks have their best cards on the table, and it’s up to us to go fish.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.