Collingwood’s Dane Swan is the red-hot favourite to win tonight’s Brownlow Medal and so he should be, the popular Magpie has had a stunning season averaging well over 30 possessions a game.
With his dashing pace, colourful ink filled sleeves and recent history in polling, there’s no doubt the Great Dane will have caught the eye of the umpires.
He’s played all 22 games, is the clear favourite with the bookies and might also have the football gods on his side, with the special Brownlow/Premiership double well and truly within his grasp. Everything is leaning towards a Swan victory.
But then again, don’t count out the little champion from Geelong.
Gary Ablett had an unbelievable start to the year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he polls two or three votes in every round up until round six, when he was forced out of the side with a hamstring strain.
Having won last year, obviously the umpires will have no trouble remembering the famous number 29, but he may in fact end up being a victim of his own lofty standards.
Ablett’s middle half of the year was awesome to say the least, but compared to his usual output, it didn’t really compare, and might end up costing him the medal.
My third favourite is St Kilda’s Lenny Hayes and although he hasn’t really been mentioned too much in the build up, I think he’s a genuine chance to surprise everyone.
Hayes controversially missed All-Australian selection last week and what better way to prove the panel wrong than by winning the Brownlow Medal.
So in terms of early leaders I think Ablett will be in the outright lead at the halfway mark, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brisbane’s Jonathan Brown and Fremantle’s Michael Barlow are in the top five for most of the early rounds.
Like the Lions, Brown made a flying start to the season and was basically unstoppable at centre half-forward. His domination was so prolific that many were making comparisons between Brown and Wayne Carey.
Mature age rookie Michael Barlow was the feel good story of the year until his incredible debut season ended in heartbreak with a broken leg. How well he polls with the umpires will ultimately depend on how early they started to notice his ball winning ability and silky skills.
My big smokey is Fremantle’s Aaron Sandilands. At least we know the umpires couldn’t possibly miss him!
Since the early nineties ruckman have struggled to poll well on Brownlow night, but you never know, maybe big Sandilands can be the first tall timber since Bulldog Scott Wynd and Demon Jim Stynes win it.
Unfortunately his chances will be hindered by poor form towards the end of the year and a foot injury, which forced him to miss three games.
My polling dud this year will be Hawthorn’s Luke Hodge.
Many keen observers have the courageous Hawk comfortably finishing top three, but I’m less convinced for two reasons.
Firstly he had an absolute belting start to the year but unfortunately it was when the Hawks were struggling to win a game. Hodge therefore will struggle to get maximum votes in a losing side.
Secondly, although he has produced several best on field performances, we all know the Brownlow Medal has become an award for midfielders and Hodge played most of his footy as a sweeping half back flanker, thus all but ruling him out of the equation.
The other midfielders not to forget are Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury and St Kilda’s Brendan Goddard.
Although Swan will no doubt be taking most of the votes off Pendlebury, you never know, perhaps he has snuck under everyone’s radar except the umpires?
Goddard has played in enough winning games and has more than enough profile to steal the attention of the umpires.
Considering Hayes, Montagna and Dal Santo are all in the same side it’s going to be hard for Goddard to win, but I still think he’s got be considered a really strong outside chance.
In the end though, my prediction is 1st Dane Swan, 2nd Gary Ablett, and 3rd Lenny Hayes.
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