Collingwood will go into the 2010 AFL Grand Final as deserved favourites – they finished on top of the ladder, their form during the finals series has been excellent, and they have very few injury worries.
However, students of AFL form and statistics will recognise the current bookmaker odds don’t reflect the true probabilities of the outcome.
I rate Collingwood a 53.5 per cent chance to win with St.Kilda’s probability sitting at 45.5 per cent (and a 1 per cent chance of a draw).
Therefore the true odds for the match are Collingwood – $1.87 and St.Kilda – $2.20.
Of course the bookies consider more than just the probabilities when setting a book (they also have to factor in where the weight of money will come from and set odds that will deliver a “balanced” book”). This means there’s often value for the canny form analyst. The value bet this week is St Kilda and that’s where a little bit of my hard earned will be going (not that value bets always win, mind you).
It promises to be a fascinating match.
This year Collingwood has taken a leaf out of the 2009 St Kilda play book and employed crushing defensive pressure all over the ground. They spread well from the contest and move the ball quickly forward around the flanks. They have a wonderful midfield with the right blend of hardness, pace, youth and experience and depth.
Collingwood’s tall forwards look suspect on paper but they’ve stood up all year.
St Kilda has a similar game style based on defensive pressure (although it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year), but they use the centre corridor to move ball forward a bit more than Collingwood. St Kilda’s midfield is also a quality unit that is battle hardened. It may lack the pace and depth of Collingwood, but it has more experience.
On paper St Kilda’s defence looks suspect but like the Collingwood tall forwards they’ve stood up all year.
The match committees of both teams will have much to think about all week.
Each team has an outstanding player that is just about unstoppable. For Collingwood it’s Dane Swan and for St Kilda it’s Nick Riewoldt. Who to play on them?
For mine, St Kilda’s number one tagger Clint Jones gets the job on Swan and runs on and off the field with him. His aerobic motor and pace are underestimated.
On the flip side, if he’s fit, Prestagiacomo comes into the team and plays on Koschitzke. This allows Collingwood to rotate Reid and Brown on Riewoldt and Maxwell can float across the backline in support.
Whoever plays on them, expect Swan and Riewoldt to have big influences on the game.
In other key match ups, don’t be surprised to see Baker brought into the St Kilda team to play on Didak because there’s no obvious match up for Didak in last week’s St Kilda 22.
Does that open the door for Leon Davis to be selected and stretch St Kilda’s ability to cover quick, clever small forwards?
I’m tipping Lenny Hayes and Luke Ball to go head to head in a fascinating midfield/clearance duel between former team mates.
One advantage St Kilda does have is the depth of it’s ruck brigade. McEvoy is better than whoever Collingwood will use to give Jolly a rest. Does that mean Josh Fraser comes under selection consideration?
It promises to be a great game, with many sub plots to salivate over between now and 5:30pm on Saturday.
Bring it on!
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