Dane Swan (L) and Jarryd Blair of Collingwood celebrate a goal as Tim Callan of the Western Bulldogs look on during the AFL 1st Qualifying Final match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Melbourne.
Come Saturday evening, the nightmare will be upon us – Collingwood will be AFL premiers. As much as those who don’t bleed black and white might hope that’s not the case, it seems that the Collingwood steam-train will continue and the Magpies will emerge triumphant over St Kilda in this weekend’s AFL Grand Final.
Although it is fashionable ahead of big matches to predict a tight finish, don’t be surprised if the Magpies win it in a canter. Collingwood are an exceptionally talented side, have one of the best coaches in the AFL, and are in excellent form heading into the biggest game of the season.
Collingwood’s finals form has been nothing short of exceptional. In the first week of the finals Collingwood ran riot over the hapless Bulldogs, and in last week’s preliminary final the Pies dethroned reigning premier Geelong with ease, slamming on seven goals to one in the first quarter.
If Collingwood can harness even a small amount of that form, they will account for last year’s beaten grand finalist this Saturday with ease.
Compared with the Magpies’ white-hot finals form, the Saints have been patchy in seeing off the same two opponents in their two finals outings. St Kilda stumbled over the line against Geelong in the first week by four points, and struggled to shake off the Bulldogs until some Nick Riewoldt heroics in the third quarter sparked the side to life last Saturday night.
Riewoldt looms as the key player in the match, and the Magpies have recalled defender Simon Prestigiacomo into the grand final team to man the St Kilda captain. Prestigiacomo will not be alone in attempting to curtail Riewoldt’s brilliance.
Magpies captain Nick Maxwell will come to his aid and zone off his direct opponent at every opportunity to prevent Riewoldt marking anywhere near goal. All Australian Harry O’Brien will also look to help out his fellow defenders in an effort to limit the impact Riewoldt has on the match.
Though Collingwood have the game’s best player this season in Dane Swan, and have undoubted star power in Alan Didak and Scott Pendlebury, their greatest strength lies in the depth of the side. The Magpies had eighteen players pole votes in Monday night’s Brownlow medal to St Kilda’s twelve – evidence that the Magpies bat a lot deeper than the Saints.
If the Grand Final turns into a dour, low-scoring match, the side which receives the biggest contribution from its bottom six players will likely emerge victorious, and Collingwood’s bottom six are more dependable and talented than their St Kilda counterparts.
The Saints will rely heavily on the skilful midfield trio of Nick Dal Santo, Brendon Goddard and Leigh Montagna to move the ball forward and setup play. It remains to be seen how this talented, albeit not particularly quick St Kilda midfield will deal with the ferocious tackling and pressure on the ball that has been a feature of the Magpies’ play this season.
The main concern for the Collingwood faithful will be that the side’s much talked about goal-kicking woes will return and bring down the Magpies’ premiership hopes. Given that the Pies prevailed by eight goals without bookends Nick Maxwell and Travis Cloke last time these two sides met, it is quite possible that Collingwood will be far enough in front on the scoreboard that any yips in front of goal will not matter.
It may not be a complete cakewalk, but expect the Magpies to easily account for the Saints this Saturday.
Tip: Collingwood by 33 points
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