Stephen Milne (R) and Nick Dal Santo (L) of St Kilda celebrate after the AFL 2nd Preliminary Final match between St Kilda Saints and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images
This St Kilda side knows what it’s like to play in a Grand Final – they’re familiar with the game’s biggest stage. This St Kilda side also knows what it’s like to lose a Grand Final – something that can provide incredible motivation. As a result, an end to the club’s 44-year premiership drought tomorrow is very much on the cards.
Of course, the rampaging Collingwood will have other ideas. The Pies were comfortably the best team of the home and away season and looked sensational last week against Geelong.
But the experience of last year’s 12-point Grand Final loss can only benefit the Saints, as will a range of other factors that play into their hands.
One such factor is that the Saints have been able to consistently beat the top teams in recent times. Over the past two seasons they’ve played the other top-tier teams (Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs) a total of thirteen times and, remarkably, have only lost twice.
While that did include a loss to the Pies back in Round 16, in that game the Saints were without Nick Dal Santo and Nick Riewoldt was in just his second game back from injury. It’s a different ball game this time around.
Another major factor that will come into it is not only Collingwood’s lack of Grand Final experience, but lack of experience in general.
Eight of Collingwood’s selected side for tomorrow are 22 or younger, while only one St Kilda player (Robert Eddy) falls into that category. Similarly, seven Pies have played 50 games or less, compared to only Eddy for the Saints.
Mick Malthouse has done well to incorporate youth into his side – and, to be fair, there have been a number of occasions where youth has won out over experience in Grand Finals – but you can’t help but hold concerns over how these young players will go when the pressure is on in the biggest game of the year.
Grand Finals have a habit of exacerbating certain flaws. Inexperience is one and, sadly for the Pies, poor goal kicking is another – as recent deciders have shown.
A lot of attention this season has gone to the inaccuracy of the Pies, particularly Travis Cloke and Dayne Beams. Even though the team kicked well last week, including those two, again you have to wonder if the big stage will change all that.
After all, against St Kilda in Round 3, they famously scored 4.17.
Against Geelong in Round 9, it was 6.14.
At the Queen’s Birthday clash with Melbourne, it was 9.22.
Against Geelong again in Round 19, it was 14.23.
In big games where they have been tested by their opponents – something that did not happen last week – the Pies have struggled in front of the sticks. Who can say categorically it won’t be an issue for them tomorrow?
But back to the Saints. They have a quality side worthy of lifting the cup, and it all starts down back.
The Saints conceded the least amount of points in the competition again this season and their experience in restricting opposition will come in handy if tomorrow’s game ends up low-scoring – which is a high chance of happening if the likes of Nick Maxwell, Sam Fisher, Harry O’Brien and Sam Gilbert are freed up in defence.
Then, in the middle, while the Pies do have Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and some enviable depth, it has to be remembered the Saints also possess a highly skilled midfield. Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna, Dal Santo and the rest of the group have shown they are among the competition’s best.
It’s hard to envisage a huge discrepancy in the middle of the ground tomorrow.
Up forward, there’s the most important player on the ground, Riewoldt. While he did boot only one goal the last time these two teams met, and in last year’s Grand Final, on both those occasions he was hampered by injury.
If recent form is anything to go by, a huge game from Roo is a very real possibility. His third quarter last week virtually won his team the game, and his first half against Geelong two weeks prior was also massive.
With Justin Koschitzke and Michael Gardiner also looking dangerous of late, the Saints will test the Pies’ decision to drop Nathan Brown and Tyson Goldsack (both tall defenders) while bringing in Simon Prestigiacomo, who has not played since Round 20.
When the game is on the line and there to be won, the Saints will remember the feeling of walking off the MCG without tasting the ultimate success. If the game is close, this might just be the one factor that separates the two teams more than anything.
Even then, St Kilda are incredibly well-coached, have a game plan the players rally around and have proven themselves against the best. All that’s left now is to convert that into a premiership.
Tip: St Kilda by 12 points.
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