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In all the recriminations from Australia’s failed 2022 World Cup bid, there is one question we have failed to ask: Will we have a chance of hosting the World Cup in the next half-century? It seems highly doubtful.
Assuming FIFA changes its voting procedures, awarding World Cups on merit, technical requirements and suitability as opposed to political agendas, there’ll be a logjam of countries and continents with hosting aspirations – from the disenchanted lost bids of 2018 and 2022, to new frontiers across the globe.
But this will only cause more intrigue and geopolitical maneuvering, with FIFA overflowing with options for future World Cups.
2026 is the next World Cup up for grabs, but with 2022 in Qatar, Asian countries are precluded from bidding. That rules out 2022 bidders Australia, Japan and South Korea, in addition to prospective bidders China.
That leaves the 2026 race for the non-Asian 2018 and 2022 losers, namely the United States of America, England (assuming their FA is convinced by FIFA’s expected reforms), joint bidders such as Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Netherlands and other European options, with no obvious alternatives from Africa and South America focused on 2030.
With China out of the picture, expect a straight fight between the USA and Europe.
Europe would have hosted in 2018 in Russia, so there’s no urgency to get back to the game’s heartland. With the fallout from the 2018 and 2022 bids still causing rancour in the USA and particularly England, the English-speaking world could be offered the olive branch of the 2026 World Cup.
So to 2030, with Asia back in the race but facing stiff competition from a nostalgic South American bid. The 2030 World Cup will the 100th anniversary of the first ever rendition of the tournament held in Uruguay in 1930. To celebrate that anniversary, Uruguay will bid for the 2030 tournament alongside Argentina, as the former lacks the infrastructure or economy to bid without a co-host.
That bid was officially launched in November 2009, with the bid team and government officials already meeting with FIFA President Sepp Blatter to discuss their plans.
Following on from the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, another South American World Cup may appear far-fetched, but the South American economy is growing, following Brazil’s strong lead. Plus FIFA will be keen on the nostalgic angle of a Centennial World Cup – bringing the tournament back to its place of birth 100 years on.
The IOC was heavily criticised for failing to award the Centennial Olympics – the 1996 Games – to Athens, instead voting for Atlanta, USA. While Athens eventually hosted in 2004, the significance of the occasion was lost eight years after the anniversary.
China will also be a strong contender, having been forced to wait for 2030 following Qatar’s 2022 win. There are strong reasons for FIFA wanting a World Cup in China, and the four-year wait will only strengthen their desire and case. Some are already penciling China in for 2030.
If 2026 doesn’t go to Europe, England and co could also feature considering the World Cup would have been away from the homeland since 2018. But with the China and Uruguay-Argentina presenting such strong cases for 2030, FIFA may use 2026 to get back to Europe and free up 2030. This could possibly bring the USA into play for 2030.
So Australia would face immense competition for 2030 – the first available World Cup it can bid for. And like the 2022 race, it would face very stiff opposition from within its own Asian Confederation (assuming FIFA still allows more than one bid from a confederation), with momentum gathering around China’s bid.
2034 will then represent a clean slate, particularly if the 2030 World Cup is staged in South America, with Asia, Europe and North America back in play.
If China is forced to wait another four years for Uruguay-Argentina, they will be huge favourites for 2034. If they win in 2034, Australia will then be blocked out until 2042 (unless the rule banning a Confederation from hosting consecutive World Cups is scrapped).
If China wins the 2030 race, that will preclude Australia from bidding for 2034, forcing us to look to 2038 or beyond. Either way Australia faces a giant with huge political pull from within its own Confederation – like Qatar 2022 again but on a much bigger scale.
So let’s assume for arguments sake it plays out like this: 2026 in Europe, 2030 in Uruguay-Argentina and 2034 in China.
The best Australia can then hope for is 2042. And with the USA still hovering and waiting, the rise of the Middle East, the prospect of another African World Cup, India growing in leaps and bounds, stronger bids from Japan and Korea, and England still waiting impatiently, Australia’s competition would still be fierce – assuming there’ll still be World Cups by that time!
FIFA’s 2018 and 2022 bidding process, the desire to rotate the tournament around the world, and the awarding of tournaments to what were once football outsiders (South Africa and Qatar, for example) has created a real logjam of options for the governing body. And Australia, sadly, is down the pecking order when you consider the arguments for Uruguay-Argentina, China, Europe, the USA and the rest.
Football fans shuddered to think how old they’d be in 2022, when Australia was meant to host the World Cup. They won’t want to work out how old they’ll be in 2042… if it even happens.
We face the distinct possibility of never seeing a World Cup in Australia in our lifetimes, sadly.