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NRL Round one: welcome back old friend!

Roar Pro
11th March, 2011
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Here is something to break down the matches for this weekend! Hopefully this will help you with your tipping and fantasy competitions as well as give you options to turn your Stewy Diver into a Pavarotti, Lobster or even a Pineapple.

Friday Night
Broncos (1.45) v Cowboys (2.75)
Suncorp Stadium
Line: Cowboys +5.5

Head-to-head record: Played 29, Brisbane 23, North Queensland 4, Drawn 2

** Rivalry Match ** – The first two sides in the NRL from Queensland

Team lists:

BRONCOS: Josh Hoffman, Jharal Yow Yeh, Gerard Beale, Jack Reed, Dane Gagai, Darren Lockyer (capt), Peter Wallace, Sam Thaiday, Andrew McCullough, Scott Anderson, Alex Glenn, Matt Gillett, Corey Parker. Interchange: Ben Hunt, Ben Te’o, Josh McGuire, Shane Tronc.

COWBOYS: Matthew Bowen, Ashley Graham, Will Tupou, Willie Tonga, Michael Bani, Ray Thompson, Johnathan Thurston, Matthew Scott, Aaron Payne, James Tamou, Scott Bolton, Glenn Hall, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: Ben Jones, Leeson Ah Mau, Gavin Cooper, Ashton Sims, Tariq Sims

Referees: Shayne Hayne (Broncos – 24-13, Cowboys – 8-20) Gerard Sutton.

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Darren Lockyer (BRI) enjoys playing the Cowboys having won 21 of the 27 matches. Most recently scoring a try in each of their victories last year.

Matt Gillett (BRI) scored 3 tries in 2 matches against the Cowboys.

Jharal Yow Yeh has scored 3 tries in 3 matches against the Cowboys

Peter Wallace (BRI) has won all 6 matches he has played for the Broncos against the Cowboys (7-1 all-time)

Broncos have won 80% of their matches against the Cowboys since 1998 (20 wins from 25 matches)

Broncos have won the last seven matches against the Cowboys, including the last three at Suncorp Stadium.

The last four Broncos’ victories have been by eight points or less and a total points score of at least 26.

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Cowboys coach Neil Henry has never coached the Cowboys to a win over the Broncos

Johnathan Thurston (NQ) has scored 50 points in 6 matches against the Broncos at Suncorp, including 4 tries.

Matty Bowen (NQ) scored 4 tries in 5 matches against the Cowboys

Ashley Graham (NQ) 3 tries in 2 matches against the Broncos

Dallas Johnson (NQ) is 12-5 against the Broncos

The Cowboys are near full-strength with new signings, backs Brent Tate and Antonio Winterstein (both ex-Broncos) out through injury.

The Broncos will be without prop Ben Hannant and Justin Hodges

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Toss up head-to-head – take the Cowboys with the 5.5 start in what looks to be a close one!

Rabbitohs (2.20 to 2.05) v Roosters (1.65 to 1.75)
Sydney Football Stadium
Line – Souths +2.5 (1.75 – Roosters 2.05)

Head-to-head record: Played 201, Souths 105, Roosters 91 and 5 draws

Team lists:

ROOSTERS: Anthony Minichiello, Sam Perrett, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Kane Linnett, BJ Leilua, Braith Anasta, Mitchell Pearce, Jason Ryles, Jake Friend, Martin Kennedy, Frank Nuuausala, Mitchell Aubusson, Nate Myles. Interchange: Jared Waerea-Hargeaves, Mose Masoe, Mark Riddell, Tom Symonds, Tinarau Arona

RABBITOHS: Rhys Wesser, Nathan Merritt, Dylan Farrell, Greg Inglis, Fetuli Talanoa, John Sutton, Chris Sandow, Luke Stuart, Issac Luke, Roy Asotasi (capt), Sam Burgess, David Taylor, Ben Lowe. Interchange: Scott Geddes, Ben Ross, Eddy Pettybourne, Shannan Mcpherson, Dave Tyrrell
Referees: Tony Archer (Rabbitohs 4-16) and Alan Shortall
Cock-a-doodle-do! Since the Rabbitohs came back into the league in 2002, the Roosters have won 14 of the 18 matches against the Rabbitohs.

South Sydney have won the last two season openers against the Roosters at the SFS (52-12 in 2009 and 18-6 in 2007)

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Nathan Merritt (SOU) has 11 tries in 11 matches against the Roosters (5 from 7 at the SFS)

Souths prop Luke Stuart has not scored a try against the Roosters in 21 matches (6-15)

Brian Smith has a great record against the Rabbitohs (23-9 – won the last three) and John Lang (11-7)

2010 Dally M Winner Todd Carney is out for the Roosters. He played in all 28 matches last season for the Roosters. Souths have been backed in after the news of Carney’s absence. I still think the Roosters should get home here and -2.5 at 2.05 is very, very delicious!

Saturday arvo bro
Warriors (1.47) v Eels (2.65)
Eden Park, Auckland
Line: Eels +7.5

Head-to-head record: Played 28, Parramatta 16, Warriors 12

Warriors have won 5 of the last 6 matches against the Eels, including the last three in New Zealand scoring an average of just over 30 points per game.

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Historically, the Warriors have scored wins in both round one matches against Parramatta (26-18 in 2009 & 34-18 in 2007)

Team lists:

WARRIORS: Lance Hohaia, Glen Fisiiahi, Joel Moon, Jerome Ropati, Manu Vatuvei, James Maloney, Brett Seymour, Sam Rapira, Aaron Heremaia, Russell Packer, Simon Mannering (capt), Feleti Mateo, Micheal Luck. Interchange: Shaun Berrigan, Jacob Lillyman, Ben Matulino, Lewis Brown, Steve Rapira

EELS: Jarryd Hayne, Luke Burt, Chris Walker, Ryan Morgan, Etu Uaisele, Daniel Mortimer, Jeff Robson, Tim Mannah, Casey McGuire, Mitchell Allgood, Nathan Hindmarsh (capt), Taniela Lasalo, Justin Horo. Interchange: Matt Keating, Shane Shackleton, Ben Smith, Carl Webb, Billy Rogers

Referees: Steve Lyons, Chris James.

Both teams have never played at Eden Park

Feleti Mateo (WAR) will be up against his old side

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Lewis Brown scored two tries in his only game against the Eels in Round 17 last season at home.

Manu Vatuvei has scored 9 tries in 10 matches against the Eels

You spilt the salt! It very bad luck! – Michael Luck (WAR) looks like he spilt the saltshaker when it comes to scoring tries against the Eels, having not scored in the ten matches

Hayne has scored 5 tries in 5 games against the Warriors in New Zealand

Nathan Hindmarsh (PAR) has a great strike rate against the Warriors winning 14 of 20 matches against the Kiwi side.

Stephen Kearney’s side: Jarryd Hayne, Luke Burt, Chris Walker, Ryan Morgan, Etu Uaisele, Daniel Mortimer, Jeff Robson, Tim Mannah, Casey McGuire, Mitchell Allgood, Nathan Hindmarsh (capt), Taniela Lasalo, Justin Horo. Interchange: Matt Keating, Shane Shackleton, Ben Smith, Carl Webb, Billy Rogers.

The Eels performed brilliantly over the trials, notching up big wins over the Wests Tigers and Penrith. However, this side looks understrength with no Justin Poore, Joel Reddy, Paul Whatuira, Chris Hicks and Fuifui Moimoi. Stephen Kearney has big wraps as a coach, but I can see his NRL debut being a frustrating one.

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I’m tipping the Warriors here by 13 plus.

Saturday night, dah dah duh dah duh duh duh duh duh duh
Titans (2.45) v Dragons (1.55)
Skilled Park, Robina
Line: Titans +6.5

Head-to-head record: Played 8, Gold Coast Titans 2, St George Illawarra 6

Dragons have won six of the eight meetings with the Titans but have lost two of the last three including a golden point.

The Dragons have won all four first up matches against the outfit from the Goldy.

The Titans won all three Saturday night fixtures at Skilled Park in 2010 (All 13+)

Team Lists

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TITANS: William Zillman, Kevin Gordon, Steve Michaels, Clinton Toopi, David Mead, Luke Capewell, Scott Prince (capt), Luke Bailey, Riley Brown, Matthew White, Greg Bird, Bodene Thompson, Ashley Harrison. Interchange: Michael Henderson, Sam Tagataese, Ryan James, Preston Campbell, Mark Minichiello

DRAGONS: Darius Boyd, Brett Morris, Mark Gasnier, Matt Cooper, Jason Nightingale, Jamie Soward, Ben Hornby (capt), Dan Hunt, Nathan Fien, Michael Weyman, Beau Scott, Ben Creagh, Matt Prior. Interchange: Michael Greenfield, Jon Green, Trent Merrin, Kyle Stanley
Referees: Jared Maxwell and Phil Haines
Former Dragon Luke Bailey has not scored a try in the six matches against his home club (2-4 record)

No Nathan Friend and Anthony Laffranchi will be massive for the Titans. The Titans have not won with Nathan Friend out of their side (0-4) and without Anthony Laffranchi, (2-10) they are a combined 2 wins from 14 matches. The Dragons are coming off a great pre-season winning all three matches. The Titans got up in sloppy conditions last start, but the Dragons look the better side. Dragons 1-12

Storm (1.55) v Sea-Eagles (2.45)
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Line: Manly +4.5

Head-to-head record: Played 19, Manly 9, Melbourne 10, Drawn 0

*** Rivalry – Played in two Grand Finals (2007 and 2008)***

Manly have won three of the last four (three straight regular season meetings) including twice in 2010 (18-16 in Round 6 & 26-6 in Round 22).

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The last six games have had 30 total points or more.

Team lists

STORM: Billy Slater, Matt Duffie, Dane Nielson, Chase Stanley, Anthony Quinn, Gareth Widdop, Cooper Cronk, Bryan Norrie, Cameron Smith, Jaiman Lowe, Adam Blair, Sika Manu, Ryan Hinchliffe. Interchange: Todd Lowrie, Kevin Proctor, Troy Thomson, Jesse Bromwich, Beau Champion

SEA EAGLES: Brett Stewart, Michael Robertson, Jamie Lyon (capt), Tony Williams, Will Hopoate, Kieran Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jason King (capt), Matt Ballin, Brent Kite, Anthony Watmough, Joe Galuvao, Glenn Stewart. Interchange: Terence Seuseu, Jamie Buhrer, George Rose, Vic Mauro, Tim Robinson
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Gavin Reynolds.
It will be the Storm’s first game after the Salary Cap fiasco.

Manly have never played at AAMI Park – Melbourne were 7-2 at AAMI Park last year (3-0 on a Saturday night).

It looks as though the Storm will get up here. With their first official game in some time – Round 6 loss to the Sea-Eagles, they will be fired up for a big start to 2011. Manly have spent much of their first week in battle with the NRL over Brett Stewart and the injustice over the recent Benji Marshall exonheration.

Sunday arvo
Panthers (1.60) v Knights (2.30)
Centrebet Stadium, Penrith
Line: Knights +3.5

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Head-to-head record: Played 33, Newcastle 17, Penrith 13, Drawn 3

Team lists

PANTHERS: Lachlan Coote, Michael Gordon, Brad Tighe, David Simmons, Sandor Earl, Travis Burns, Luke Walsh, Tim Grant, Kevin Kingston, Petero Civoniceva, Trent Waterhouse, Nigel Plum, Luke Lewis. Interchange: Sam McKendry, Matthew Bell, Adrian Purtell, Masada Iosefa.

KNIGHTS: Kurt Gidley (capt), James McManus, Junior Sa’u, Wes Naiqama, Akuila Uate, Beau Henry, Jarrod Mullen, Antonio Kaufusi, Isaac De Gois, Evarn Tuimavave, Zeb Taia, Neville Costigan, Chris Houston. Interchange: Matt Hilder, Cory Paterson, Richie Fa’aoso, Dan Tolar, Joel Edwards
Referees: Ben Cummins, Tony De Las Heras.

The Knights have had good success at Penrith in recent years winning three of the last four out at Penrith since 2004. Penrith ended the streak with a 28-10 win last year in Round 13.

Fijian flyer Akuila Uate put a hat-trick of tries on the Panthers in the Round 4 clash last year. He has scored four tries in two games against the Panthers (both losses)

Chris Houston’s first game since 2009 season after a year ban.

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Ex-Knight Brad Tighe has scored three tries in two games against his old club

Kurt Gidley (NEW) has scored 8 tries in 10 games including 4 in 5 at Penrith.

Adam MacDougall has scored 88 tries in his career, but none at Penrith Stadium.

No Michael Jennings for the Panthers who had a disappointing finish to 2010. The Panthers are 2-5 without Jennings and a good record at Penrith makes me think that the Knights are good for the upset.

Raiders (1.33) v Sharks (3.25)
Canberra Stadium, Canberra
Line: Sharks +8.5

Head-to-head record: Played 54, Cronulla 29, Canberra 25

Cronulla have a great record against the green machine, having won seven of the last ten since 2005 – including five of the last six at Canberra Stadium.

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The last time Canberra beat Cronulla by 13 points or more was 13 matches ago (40-12 – Round 20, 2003)

Team lists

RAIDERS: Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson, Jarrod Croker, Joel Thompson, Daniel Vidot, Josh McCrone, Matt Orford, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Alan Tongue, Dave Shillington, Joe Picker, Bronson Harrison, Shaun Fensom. Interchange: Glen Buttriss, Trevor Thurling, Dane Tilse, Brett White, Danny Galea, Josh Miller

SHARKS: Nathan Gardner, Matthew Wright, Dean Collis, Colin Best, John Williams, Albert Kelly, Wade Graham, Kade Snowden, John Morris, Luke Douglas, Jeremy Smith, Anthony Tupou, Paul Gallen (capt). Interchange: Josh Cordoba, Broderick Wright, Paul Aiton, Jayson Bukuya, Johnny Mannah, Ben Pomeroy

The Inaugral Blake Ferguson Cup – Raiders winger Blake Ferguson will play his old side after dodgy exit from the Shire.

Look for a great forwards matchup with a handful of Origin players going at it to start the season – Paul Gallen, Luke Douglas and Kade Snowden (Cronulla) and Brett White and Tom Lehroyd-Lars (Canberra) will all be vying for spots in Ricky Stuart’s 2011 NSW side.

Ben Pomeroy (CRO) has 8 tries from 8 matches against the Raiders.

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Daniel Vidot (CAN) scored a double against the Sharks in the 20-13 win in Round 20 in Canberra. It was also Cronulla’s coach Steve Flanagan’s first match taking over from Ricky Stuart.

Canberra should get up here, The Sharks usually start the season well, and if they lose its close. The last time they lost by more than 8 was in 2001 against the Dragons. The 8.5 start for Cronulla might be too much.

Bundy Mundy
Bulldogs (2.05) v Tigers (1.75)
ANZ Stadium, Homebush
Line: Bulldogs +2.5

Head-to-head record: Played 20, Wests Tigers 9, Canterbury 11

No real trends to report – alternate winners over the past seasons and at ANZ.

Team lists
BULLDOGS: Ben Barba, Steve Turner, Josh Morris, Jamal Idris, Bryson Goodwin, Kris Keating, Trent Hodkinson, Aiden Tolman, Michael Ennis, Sam Kasiano, Jake Foster, Andrew Ryan, David Stagg. Interchange: Mickey Paea, Frank Pritchard, Corey Payne, Ben Roberts.

TIGERS: Wade McKinnon, Lote Tuqiri, Blake Ayshford, Chris Lawrence, Matt Utai, Benji Marshall, Robert Lui, Bryce Gibbs, Robbie Farah (capt), Keith Galloway, Liam Fulton, Gareth Ellis, Chris Heighington. Interchange: Tim Moltzen, Simon Dwyer, Andrew Fifita, Todd Payten.

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Referees: Gavin Badger (Wests Tigers 10-2 record), Brett Suttor (Wests Tigers 4-1 record).

Who do you rake the best? – Another NSW battle with Michael Ennis (CAN) up against Robbie Farah (WST). Ennis got the upper had on the restaurant owner Farah (Is his restaurant any good?) bagging a double in last years round six win against the Tigers. Look for Farah to have a big one after missing out on an NSW Origin jersey.

Benji Marshall has a great record against the Bulldogs – 7 wins from 8 matches including 5 tries.

Good try-scoring strike rates at ANZ:
Josh Morris (CAN) 22 tries from 24 matches
Bryson Goodwin (CAN) 18 tries from 25 matches
Chris Lawrence (WST) 10 tries from 16 matches
Blake Ayshford (WST) 3 tries from 3 matches

Matt Utai (WST) makes his Tigers debut against his old side (Utai has scored 25 tries from 43 matches at ANZ)

Would you be game to put some money on the Tigers kicking a penalty goal as first scoring play?

Probably the toughest match to pick of the round. Bulldogs lost both Monday night games at ANZ last season whereas the Tigers won both their matches. I think the Tigers.

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Both Tigers’ stars Farah and Marshall have their own reasons to perform and the team will galvanise after a controversial week. Tigers 1-12

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