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AFL players who face a make-or-break 2011

Expert
24th March, 2011
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This is a look at players from each club in the AFL whose time has come to step up and live up to their promise in the 2011 season.

Adelaide – Taylor Walker

Walker has had a phenomenal pre-season, justifying the interest by GWS to poach this gifted youngster who is only 20 and is developing nicely as a key target up forward complementing Kurt Tippet. Kicking several bags in the pre-season Walker has bulked up over summer and is expected to hold down the full-forward position at West Lakes while Tippet assists in the ruck.

Walker is out of contract at the end of the season, which is risky, however this proves he is confident he can have a breakout year and push his salary value up when negotiation comes from Adelaide and GWS. A stellar 60-plus goal season could see GWS making an unmatchable offer, however if he cannot live up to his pre-season form, holding off negotiations may stunt his career considerably.

Brisbane – Jed Adcock

Three years ago, Adcock was touted as the next big thing in Brisbane. Vying for All-Australian selection as a half-back flanker in 2007 Adcock averaged 20-plus touches per game before a disappointing 2008 season and injury affected 2009/10 campaigns. Back to full fitness this year, and at the age of 25, Adcock is lofting around his prime and will be looking to guide Brisbane’s young core of midfielders as Simon Black and Luke Power ease out of the clearance game.

With Josh Drummond and Ash McGrath holding down key rebounding positions, Adcock’s leadership in the midfield along the likes of Daniel Rich, Tom Rockliff and Jared Polec will be the difference between a productive year and the wooden spoon.

Carlton – Brock McLean

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After 94 games at Melbourne, McLean was labelled the next captain before suddenly moving to Carlton amid discussions surrounding his desire to play in a premiership. Cynics would argue that Melbourne knew of his injury woes thus hyped up his leadership credentials to drive up his price which was eventually pick 11 in the 2009 draft.

In two seasons at Carlton, the 2005 number five draft pick has played a total of six games – none of which have warranted his value. In a midfield where Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Kane Lucas are all younger and more consistent a poor season may see a number of young midfields surpass him in the pecking order.

Collingwood – Cameron Wood

The reigning premiers changed the game last year through utilisation of the ‘super-ruck’ whom pinch hits in the ruck while being able to hold down a key position elsewhere on the field. There is little doubt that Darren Jolly is on the decline and the number one ruck position will come into question if the Pies are to look for a long-term solution as to who will be able to see out the centre square duties, along Pendlebury and Beams over the next five years.

Wood will not get a look into the 22 this season as a result of the new substitute rule but if he can string a number of performances in the VFL and show some marking ability, his best chance will come if named as the substitute. With two ruckman on the senior list younger than Wood who is entering his fourth year at Collingwood at the age of 24, he has no more excuses.

Essendon – Kyle Reimers

I’m sick of saying Scott Gumbleton here and I have now conceded he will never live up to his potential. At various times, Reimers has shown glimpses of brilliance but when you wear fluorescent orange boots, glimpses are not enough. This kid has pace and excellent hands but I’m not confident enough to say exactly where he should be playing.

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He has played up forward and kicked goals as well as streaked down the wing providing some run and bounce. With the arrival of Mark Thompson, Reimers’ game should flourish as an outside midfielder similar to what Thompson did with Joel Corey, new coaching staff means Reimers’ has the ultimate opportunity to establish himself as a key member of the 22.

Fremantle – Byron Schammer

At the end of 2010, I had locked Schammer in as trade bait and expected him to be playing elsewhere but was proven wrong when he was retained. Once a prolific ball winner in Fremantle’s cellar dweller days, Schammer has not been on the radar in the previous two seasons to the point I can’t recall seeing him play once in 2010.

With Mark Harvey intent on blooding youngsters, Stephen Hill, Matt DeBoer, Anthony Morrabito, Garrick Ibbotson, Tendai Mzunga and Michel Barlow all appear to be ahead of him in the depth chart. If he cannot break into the senior side with solid WAFL performances and play at least half the season, I suspect this will be his last at Fremantle.

Geelong – Travis Varcoe

For the previous five seasons, Varcoe has played with almost no pressure despite being a first round draft pick in 2005. Gifted with pace and foot skills, Varcoe has played 90 per cent of his careers to date as a crumbing forward whose role is to apply defensive pressure in the forward 50 while chipping in with one to two goals per game. The absence of Gary Ablett in the midfield means if Varcoe cannot step up and take the vacated spot, he will be destined to spend the rest of his career as a crumbing forward.

Gold Coast – Nathan Bock

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When the AFL first announced the compensation pick Adelaide would receive in exchange for Bock, I was dumbfounded to see a now 28-year-old player being valued so highly when they had minimal impact in 2010. Although not blessed with pace, Bock’s ball use and decision making is top notch and this will be unaffected by his lack of recent game time.

My concern is his endurance. Playing CHB for the Suns means he will see a lot of the ball in the defensive half this year and may need time to play his way back into the game. Although a solid leader for their young defence, he will need to prove he can be equally damaging without Andrew McLeod, Tyson Edwards and Simon Goodwin rebounding alongside him.

Hawthorn – Max Bailey

There were a few in mind I had for Hawthorn who need several players to step up into key defensive rolls but Ryan Schoenmakers and Ben Stratten showed me enough last year to minimise the loss of Trent Croad. Max Bailey has now undergone three ACL’s and all common sense would have told the boy to give up and live a healthy life. But Bailey refuses to give up on his dream and Hawthorn have so much faith in him to hold the number one ruck position that they delisted Simon Taylor and Wayde Skipper without redrafting Robert Campbell who found a new home at Melbourne.

Early comparisons juxtaposed Bailey to Matthew Primus in terms of ability, and with the amount of heart Bailey has, I suspect he will go out fighting and finish top 10 in Hawthorn’s Best and Fairest.

Melbourne – Cale Morton

Rather than rag on high draft picks like Jack Watts, I’ll slip down three picks to Cale Morton. Despite an injury affected 2010 campaign, Morton still managed to average 20.9 touches in 10 games. A superstar at U18 level, Morton looks a likely type at 191cm and natural athletic ability to run, jump and run some more.

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The departure of Cameron Bruce means Morton can either work his way into match fitness as an outside midfielder or running half back before consolidating a midfield position. If all goes well, Brent Moloney, Tom Scully, Jack Trengove and Morton will all be working very closely in the midfield for a long-time but that said, youngsters like Jordan Gysberts, Jordie McKenzie and Neville Jetta have put their hand up at times and shown enough in Morton’s absence to say they should be given further opportunities.

North Melbourne – Robbie Tarrant

Most people forget that Tarrant was a first round selection in the 2007 draft and about to enter his fourth year, he has only played two games – impressing in neither. Drafted as a key position defender capable of playing at both ends, the ‘big men take longer to develop’ adage means he is expected to have an impact this year.

With the addition of Ben McKinley, he is more likely to play down back and form the cornerstone of their defence over the next five years with Nathan Grima. As a mobile key position player, North Melbourne will look to see what Tarrant can do on the field. His pre-season performances have been good enough to warrant selection and a good season will see him join the young core in Brad Scott’s game plan. Another injury year may see the patience run out.

Port Adelaide – Robbie Gray

Based on what we’ve seen from Gray, he is quite similar to Mark LaCras at West Coast and Steve Johnson at Geelong. He will hold a medium-sized forward role but has the natural ability to play in the midfield but is restricted to the forward line due to his team’s lack of goal kicking depth. Impressive in most games he played last year, where new coach Matthew Primus plays him will dictate his success.

As a forward he is capable of kicking 50 goals and as a midfielder he has excellent awareness. If he steps into the midfield and makes an immediate impact, expect his ball use to catch the eyes of umpires and a few Brownlow votes in what is a dull Port Adelaide midfield.

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Richmond – Alex Rance

Last year I said it was time for Jack Rewoldt to step up and boy did he! Although I’m not asking Rance to come out and win the Coleman, this will be the year he either makes his mark as a tough head over the ball clearance player or just another flanker. After we all witnessed his attack on the ball during that sickening collision with Troy Selwood, it’s time for him to attack the ball in the same manor, win it and get it to good ball users like Nathan Foley or the highly touted Reece Conca.

Richmond’s list needs a lot of work but if 2010 is anything to go by, Damien Hardwick loves those who can commit to a contest and win it. Rance has all the playing characteristics Hardwick showed in his prime and I would expect a pre-season of learning when and when not to put your head over the ball will make Rance a breakout player.

St Kilda – Jason Gram

St Kilda is the team with the most players who need to step up for reasons including off field controversies and two losing Grand Finals. The list of players who needed to do more to push St Kilda over the line on the last Saturday of September include David Armitage, Raph Clarke, James Gwilt, Ben McEvoy and Andrew McQualter, but I have selected Jason Gram because he is the most damaging of the aforementioned group.

Gifted with the thumping kick with pinpoint accuracy, changes in the rules of the game have many pundits expecting the long bomb to make a return. Gram brings the targeted long bomb to the field and with another marking forward in Ryan Gamble assisting Nick Rewoldt this year, we can expect Gram to either lead the team in inside 50’s or fighting for his spot amongst the aforementioned group.

Sydney – Lewis Johnston

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It’s no secret that the Swans list is aging but they have also recruited excellently over the past few years to ensure John Longmire is not left with a talentless list. The Swans have never been a high scoring team because they haven’t had a potent forward line since 2005 when Barry Hall was at the peak of his career. With Daniel Bradshaw only having a few years left in him, it will be critical for Johnston, a 192cm key position player drafted with pick number 12 in 2008 to step up and learn as much as he can from a wise head like Bradshaw.

If he can get his body right, Johnston will be a key figure in the Swans forward line for years to come alongside Trent Dennis-Lane and Gary Rohan. Last year Jesse White was played in the key position to little success so the key post is Johnston’s for the taking.

West Coast – Daniel Kerr

Kerr is the difference between the Eagles making finals or not. The once engine room powerhouse has been marred with off-field controversy and injury for the last few seasons but there is little doubt he can return to his Premiership winning best. Cynics will argue he cannot reproduce the form in the absence of Ben Cousins and Chris Judd but I beg to differ.

He’s training well, looks healthy and barring an undisciplined WAFL incident, Kerr has had a productive preseason. With Matt Priddis at the top of his game and Nick Natinui to provide physical presence around the packs, if Daniel Kerr can return to his best, he can lift this team to challenge for finals. He’s still only 27.

Western Bulldogs – Robert Murphy

If Mitch Hahn’s de-listing is anything to go by, Murphy is in his do or die year with the Bulldogs who are in the backend of their premiership window. With a large number of media commitments, Murphy needs to prove he is still here to win a flag and not merely paving the way into his post-football career. Able to play on either flank, Murphy is efficient at his best but his form last year did not warrant selection in the best 22.

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With the addition of Justin Sherman, Murphy’s most damaging position will be up forward clearing room for Barry Hall and Jarred Grant. Although he does not have the agility to be a defensive forward, his excellent hands cannot be ignored and coaches will be wary of his presence and this may be his biggest contribution.

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