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Gary Ablett of the Gold Coast Suns addresses the media during a press conference at Crown Casino in Melbourne. Slattery Images
They have been widely tipped for the wooden spoon and will be fielding 10-12 AFL debutants against a 2010 finals side, with two-time Brownlow medallist Chris Judd playing his 200th game. But history says the AFL’s newest club, Gold Coast, can win on Saturday night when they meet Carlton at the GABBA.
At least, that’s what people in some quarters are saying when they point to the statistic that four of the six new AFL/VFL clubs in the past 30 years have won their debut game in the competition.
Sydney did it in 1982, West Coast and Brisbane did it in 1987, and Adelaide managed it in 1991 against eventual premiers Hawthorn.
But, of course, history isn’t always reliable and this statistic is tenuous when you ponder Fremantle and Port Adelaide lost their respective opening AFL games in 1995 and 1997.
The AFL has become a lot more professional in recent times, and the surprise factor which a new side can harness to their advantage is no longer as effective in the modern game, where clubs do plenty of pre-game research on their opposition.
Sure, Gold Coast will know more about Carlton than Carlton will know about Gold Coast, but it shouldn’t have a hugely dramatic effect on the game.
As well, unlike previous start-up clubs, this Gold Coast side is filled with plenty of teenagers and youngsters who don’t have much experience against mature-age bodies (although their VFL experiences would’ve helped to some degree) which counts against them. Intimidation could be a factor.
But as Carlton skipper Chris Judd conceded yesterday, a debut game for any club arouses a lot of emotion and there’s no doubt the Suns’ players will be up for the game.
The Suns may be tipped to win only a handful of games this season but I dare say few AFL clubs would have wanted to face them first up.
It’s a tricky fixture and one the Suns could win as there’s so many unknowns going into the contest.
And Carlton’s Round One 20-point victory over unfancied Richmond wasn’t overly convincing (with accuracy a major issue for the Blues), suggesting they could be vulnerable on the journey north, despite their decent interstate record (3-2) in 2010.
To strengthen Gold Coast’s case, they head into the game with basically an injury-free list with Gary Ablett Jnr overcoming the nagging groin complaint which kept him out of pre-season to be fit and ready in a major boost for the start-up franchise.
Referring back to history again, never before has a new club had the best player in the league in their ranks. Ablett’s presence will be a major boon for the Suns.
And they certainly were no disgraces in the NAB Cup in Ablett’s absence, when they defeated Sydney Swans and Greater Western Sydney (albeit in the shortened version of the game) before pushing West Coast who are never easy in Perth.
And we know the arguments about why the Suns will struggle. It’s not that they are short on quality with players like Michael Rischitelli, Nathan Bock, Campbell Brown, Josh Fraser and Jared Brennan in their ranks, it’s that they may lack depth and experience.
If a few of the youngsters – who at this stage are largely unknowns but highly-rated nonetheless – can exceed expectations then perhaps a win is possible on Saturday night.
But the chief concern is their forward line, with all their AFL-listed acquisitions being either defenders or midfielders.
In the VFL last season young duo Brandon Matera and Charlie Dixon led their goalscoring with 22 each. And in their NAB Cup quarter-final loss to the Eagles they did only manage six goals in four quarters of footy. That’s a worry.
But who knows what impact playing at home in their AFL debut game with Ablett in the side will have? They are certainly some factors which offer some optimism to Suns’ fans.
This side may only be fancied to win 4-5 games this season and they may be expected to struggle to avoid the wooden spoon this season, but their debut game is as good a chance as any (particularly with a fit list) to get on the board.
What do you think, can the Suns surprise the Blues? And how many games can they win in 2011?
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