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The New South Wales Blues cannot beat Queensland with an equal bounce of the ball, especially if the team is selected like it has been over the past five years.
It is my view that the quality of the coach is not crucial.
Fatty Vautin proved that when he won a series with the Maroons in 1995 and Wayne Pearce proved it again in 2000, when he won the series 3-0.
Gee, even Tommy Raudonikis (1997-98) won three of his six games as Blues coach.
Ricky Stuart has been sacked at his previous three coaching jobs, but he takes over as the Blues coach from Craig Bellamy, who is regarded as the best coach in the NRL with his papers stamped NSW.
Although Stuart only achieved a 25% win record with the Sydney Roosters and the Cronulla Sharks in his last two years as their coach and lost the “unlooseable” World Cup to New Zealand as the national coach, the NSW Rugby League had no problems in re-appointing him again as the man to guide NSW back to Origin glory. After all, he did it in 2005.
The fact is that Stuart had the good fortune to have the great Andrew Johns as his captain and halfback, who completely dominated the series and went on to win the Dally M and Rep Player of the Year.
This time around there is no standout halfback, in fact, the entire spine is up for grabs.
Mal Meninga is not regarded as a great coach, but he has what Stuart had in 2005, a champion halfback in Jonathan Thurston, and for good measure you can throw in living legend Darryn Lockyer, Billy Slater and Cam Smith giving Queensland the greatest spine in the history of Rugby League.
Champions Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges, regarded as the two best centres in the world, complement the edges.
The Blues selectors in previous years have tried to select a normal good team based on club performances. This has not worked against the amazing Maroons combination.
NSW do not have an Andrew Johns, but they do have some world-class talent and a place for the majority of them must be found if an upset is to occur.
This will mean that the Blues team that runs out in Brisbane on May 25 must include Jarryd Hayne, Josh Dugan, Akuila Uate and Jamal Idris.
It is the X-factor players like this that can upset the Maroons and make Mal squirm in his chair when they have the ball.
This will require a radical approach, but NSW have no hope by being normal.
It is also vital that these match-winners get the ball as much as possible so playing Hayne at six is obvious to allow Dugan at fullback. Hayne looks a natural second receiver and he has never played there with a top class halfback, who can give him good service.
As good a player as Mark Gasnier and Jamie Lyon are, they will not cause big Mal to miss any sleep and Jamal Idris will give him and Greg Inglis nightmares.
My backline will look like:
1. Josh Dugan
2. Brett Morris
3. Josh Morris
4. Jamal Idris
5. Akuila Uta
6. Jarryd Hayne
7. Jarrod Mullen
Respected commentator Graeme Hughes considers that the Blues were disappointing in the forwards last year, especially up front.
I do not subscribe to that view and consider our forwards were on top at the start of game one last year before the freakish Thurston cut loose.
The two forward-packs will cut each other out; it will be the X-factors that decide Origin 2011, but will the Blues selectors find a place for all of them and make Mal squirm?
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