Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao puts his welterweight title on the line against heavy underdog, three weight division world champion ‘Sugar’ Shane Mosley this weekend. Mosley hasn’t scored a win in his previous two outings, a wide decision loss to Floyd Mayweather jnr and a disputed draw with Sergio Mora.
Many have dubbed this fight a mismatch, and on paper it’s hard to argue with them. Pacquiao is in the prime of his career while the 39 year old Mosley appears on the decline.
There’s a saying in boxing that styles make fights, and when you get past the numbers and analyse how both men fight, this fight isn’t the mismatch that it appears to be on paper.
Shane Mosley is the first fighter Pacquiao has faced with a world class right hand since he fought Juan Manuel Marquez in 2008. The two guys who have given Pacquiao trouble since he hit his prime were Marquez and Erik Morales and they did it with the right hand.
Morales, the last man to beat Pacquiao six years ago, had success backing Pacquiao up with his right hand. It was a blueprint he followed from the first fight between Marquez and Pacquiao the year before, a fight where despite knocking Marquez down three times in the first round and breaking his nose, Pacquiao couldn’t finish him.
Not only couldn’t he finish him, Marquez battled back winning the majority of the final eleven rounds to secure a draw on the judges scorecards.
Four years later when he finally got his rematch, Marquez followed the same gameplan with similar effects. He was able to back Pacquiao up and leave him lunging in with wild shots where he was easily countered and while he lost a split decision, the decision was highly disputed.
Pacquiao has since fought left handed fighters. The knockout win that put “Pacman” on the map was against Oscar De La Hoya, a man who despite fighting from an orthodox stance, is reknowned for his left jab and left hook and has often been criticised for lacking a powerful right hand.
Ricky Hatton was his next victim and his come forward style has always involved working in short hooks, uppercuts and body shots from the inside, not landing long range counter shots from the outside. Miguel Cotto then followed, a man who is a converted southpaw and often switches during a fight.
Mosley’s right hand is deadly. He staggered “Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather jnr twice in the second round of their fight last May with his right hand. He used it as his primary weapon to beat Oscar De La Hoya in 2000 to win the welterweight title, sliding it inside De La Hoya’s vaunted left hook throughout the final six rounds. He used it to reclaim the welterweight title in 2009, battering Antonio Margarito with it mercilessly en route to a 9th round knockout.
Another attribute Mosley has that Pacquiao hasn’t been up against in a while is his hand speed. While not what it was five years ago, Mosley still has blistering hand speed. He was made to look slow against Mayweather but to be fair on Mosley he was on the back of a 15 month layoff.
Pacquiao’s recent opponents haven’t had the hand speed to put punches on him consistently to slow down his assaults. De La Hoya took away any chance he had in their fight by draining himself to make the welterweight limit for the first time in over seven years.
Margarito and Hatton are two fighters who have a deadly inside game, but have to take shots from the outside in order to get their own in. Mosley will be the first guy in a long time who won’t have to work through Pacquiao’s powerful combinations to land his own punches.
His handspeed, combined with a seven inch reach advantage gives him an advantage.
The other thing Mosley brings to the table is his body punching, which combined with his hand speed, will be a major factor. Mosley has always been a great body puncher and Pacquiao has shown in past fights that he has a weakness being hit to the midsection.
His last knockout loss (to be fair this was in 1999) came via a right hand to the body. Miguel Cotto had success early on against Pacquiao going to his body until he was caught and dropped. Erik Morales also worked the body well against Pacquiao in their first fight.
In saying all of this, Pacquiao is the favourite for a reason. He has obvious advantages in this fight. His foot speed has the potential to make Mosley look as bad as his recent opponents have against him.
The pace he sets in his fights is something Mosley will have to control if he has any chance of winning as Mosley won’t be able to fight a typical Pacquiao paced fight for the full 12 rounds.
Going off their recent fights you’d have to give the advantage in hand speed to Pacquiao as well. Mosley has been counted out before though and is one of those fighters who is hard to bet against in big fights. As his trainer Naazim Richardson said recently, people have been counting him out since the De La Hoya rematch in 2003.
If Mosley has one last great fight left in him, he has the tools and the style to give Pacquiao a hell of a fight.
Pacquiao v Mosley is live on Sunday, May 8 at 11am AEST on Main Event. Pacquiao is the raging favourite at $1.14 vs Shane Mosley at $8.4
Read more on Pacquiao v Mosley: Preview: Manny Pacquiao v “Sugar” Shane Mosley: Sugar Shane can shock the world
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