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Matt Orford passes the ball during the NRL round two.
There are only three things, they say, that are important in real estate: location, location and location. There is an easy translation as to what is important to modern day rugby league: broadcast rights, broadcast rights and broadcast rights
The inaugural businessmen and women of the ARL Commission will be very busy, increasing crowd figures and memberships and fixing out dated scheduling. However, these are not issues as immediately pertinent to the game as a $1 billion payday.
I think it is as safe as a 2011 St George Illawarra minor premiership to suggest that NRL expansion will only occur if it will increase revenue for the next broadcast deal of 2013-2017.
There are only four viable options left in this round of expansion as I see it: Central Coast Bears, Perth, Central Queensland and Brisbane II.
Forget about memberships, Facebook numbers and righting the wrongs of the past on this issue. Here is the ad revenue that the free-to-air networks generated from January to June 2010:
Brisbane: $235,370,035.
Perth: $145,669,616.
Regional NSW: $187,020,165.
Regional Queensland: $102,813,645.
The Central Coast population of 300,000 makes up approx 10 per cent of the regional NSW population of three million, and the Central Queensland population of 200,000 makes up approx eight per cent of the regional Queensland population of 2.5 million.
I don’t know exactly how much the Central Coast and Central Queensland markets contributed to the regional NSW and regional Queensland figures above, but a basic calculation using the relevant populations gives you the following:
Brisbane: $235,370,035.
Perth: $145,669,616.
Central Coast: $18,702,016.
Central Queensland: $8,225,091.
While there are other factors to be considered such as the Central Coast Bears potential to re-engage with lost North Sydney Bears fans from Sydney, the numbers stack up so heavily in favour of Brisbane II and Perth, it would be easy to wonder why there is a debate over NRL expansion at all.
Nine allocates more Friday night games to the Broncos than any other NRL team, except perhaps the Dragons, clearly stating the importance of the Brisbane market to broadcasters. Brisbane II will give the ARL Commission the ability to schedule a Brisbane team to be on free-to-air every round of the premiership, a huge bonus in broadcast negotiations with the networks.
Perth is of course AFL heartland, but sources within the media industry have stated that the networks are willing to pay more if a sport can sell them the illusion of a national competition, which is exactly why the AFL are going ahead with GWS despite next to no AFL support in Western Sydney.
Perth, with its advantageous time zones, also helps the NRL grow the game and increase market share, with this western expansion being bankrolled by the new broadcast deal.
I predict a bumper NRL broadcast deal to begin in 2013 with a staged entry of Brisbane II and Perth shortly thereafter.
Our hearts may go out to the supporters of the other expansion bids, but to find the blueprint for the NRL’s next expansion phase, I’m afraid, it’s all in the numbers.
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