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The South Africans are sweating on this match. And so they should be. The Waratahs can clinch a top six spot and only have the Brumbies in their way. This could mean one South African team misses out.
Based on Matt Giteau’s last kick against the Reds, the Waratahs will have to do more than turn up.
The Brumbies are improving. They haven’t changed their game pattern (according to the stats) from their last two wins. So what are the stats between these two teams that will have a lot of South Africans interested and watching?
The stats show some real differences between the two teams and their style of play this season. But before we get into it too much, just the usual disclaimer that all this data comes from me coding all the games, mostly live.
The first difference is in the kicking game. The Waratahs have the highest average for tactical kicks from the hand in the Super Rugby competition with 26.9 per game.
The Brumbies average 20.2 kicks per game and undertake the fewest kicks. This includes touch finders and kick that are errors (taken back inside the 22 etc). If the Waratahs are hoping to get a game of aerial ping-pong going the Brumbies are unlikely to get involved in that.
When the Brumbies do kick, 50 per cent of time it is to find touch, whereas the Waratahs look to find touch from 38 per cent of their kicks. If the Brumbies are hoping to set for the lineout from finding touch, they might not get the chance because the Waratahs lead the competition quick throw-ins.
Both team favour throwing to the middle of the lineout regardless of who is there. The Waratahs are averaging half a lineout loss per game and the Brumbies 1.5.
The Brumbies average 100.7 rucks and mauls per game, leading the competition. This is 20 per cent more that the Waratahs who average 80.3 rucks and mauls per game. Both sides hold onto the ball at contact for roughly the same amount of phases with the Brumbies slightly ahead with 3.7 phases compared to the Waratahs 3.4.
The Brumbies have the ball more and also lead the competition in ‘lost possession/turnovers’ average 24.4 per game. They lose the ball at the ruck, after taking it in 4.8 times per game, more than any other team. The Waratahs average 19.6 lost possessions/turnovers per game with 9.9 of these being handling errors, the fifth highest in the competition – something they will need to tidy up.
When it comes to points on the board, the Waratahs are averaging 3.1 tries per match playing local derbies compared to the Brumbies average 2.1 tries. However Giteau could be the difference when it comes to the penalties as his kicking average is 90 per cent (36 from 40) – the highest in the competition. Kurtely Beale is on a respectable 72% (28 from 39 penalty attempts).
To score points it helps to be in the opposition’s 22 and the Waratahs have averaged six minutes 15 seconds per game counting only when the ball is in play or contestable (third highest in the competition). The Brumbies are ninth in the competition averaging four minutes 24 seconds, about the middle of the competition.
So if the Waratahs hope to get the Brumbies engaged in a kicking game, statistically they won’t. The Waratahs are likely to get down the right end and it just comes down to whether they can convert this into points.
Like everything in rugby, protect the pill, get down the other end and score more points than the opposition. Simple maths rather than statistics.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.