There are quite a few scribes in this forum who maintain that Australian Super Rugby sides have an unfair bonus by playing eight games in the season in local derbies, which are much easier than their overseas counterparts’ local derbies.
Is this true?
I am not a particularly strong maths or stats person, but I can use a spreadsheet and this is what I came up with.
For a start, we can grab the rankings as of the end of the season: Reds first, Stormers second etc. We have to invert the standings by subtracting their position from 16, so the Reds would be 15, Stormers 14 etc.
Then when two teams play we can combine the two inverted standings to give a weight to that contest. Therefore, a Reds versus Stormers match would equal 29, a Lions versus Rebels contest would total three.
Now we are in a position to add the weights of all the games to national totals to get an idea of which conference played the most difficult games.
The results were:
Australia: 1148
New Zealand: 1368.
South Africa: 1270.
The percentage advantage to Australian teams is 19 per cent, to South Africa teams it is eight per cent.
How you wish to interpret that is entirely within your gift. Obviously New Zealand has greater depth and can form more competitive teams.
Alternatively, you could argue that Australia is handicapped by having the youngest teams. Taking into consideration that the Crusaders versus Hurricanes match was canceled, which costs the New Zealand total 40 points, there is considerable weight to the argument that New Zealand is hampered by the system.
Is it important?
The answer is in the decision between: Is the Super Rugby tournament primarily a marketing exercise with rugby as the product, or is it a rugby contest with Fox Sports as an interested observer?
I would suggest that those who do not give the marketing side of the argument more weight than the rugby side have missed the point. We need these partnerships to promote the code. If it is unfair then only to a degree that matters not when compared to the bigger picture.
Since Fox came on board all those years ago we have more rugby, better rugby and the game is thriving. Without these business partners that simply would not be the case.
Your team may have just missed the finals, but the best team will probably win the comp.
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