Sydney versus Collingwood at ANZ Stadium mid-year is generally a big match, but for the Swans, this year’s match is a mini-final which will determine their September path.
While I expect the Swans to be around in September, where they will place is the big question.
The team is full of talent and easily a top four team. Having a team with Mumford, Goodes, Jack and Richards in it is generally going to win the Swans games.
However, even though the team is full of talent, the results are what count and to be honest, they really haven’t worried any of the big teams into being scared come September.
Looking at their results, Sydney are yet to strike a win against any of the top four; a must to be considered a premiership contender.
In 2011, the Swans have lost all four matches against top four sides (two to Carlton, Hawthorn and Geelong) by an average of 31 points. Three of those losses have been at the SCG, their home ground.
In today’s footy climate, it is crucial for home matches to be won.
These matches haven’t been close. In fact, the Swans have been smashed.
Last week against Carlton in Melbourne was no exception.
Carlton had 20 more tackles, 14 less clangers and was more efficient with the ball. While the Swans had more contested possessions, they were less effective and as a result got a thumping.
More importantly, Sydney’s better players were well down in their stats. Goodes and Shaw had less than 20 disposals whereas Carlton’s key players in Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy ran rings round their markers.
All in all, the Swans didn’t perform against a team they may need to beat in September.
Sydney coach John Longmire expects his side to be top four in 2011. But if the Swans are going to stumble in the big testing matches, they are more likely to be a 5-8 side.
This week’s clash against Collingwood is a difficult assignment and one that will show whether the Swans are a finals team or not.
Working against them is the fact the Swans haven’t beaten Collingwood since 2005. This match will be a marker of their ladder position and how deep in September they will progress.
A bad loss, in which they are not competitive and comprehensively beaten, should spell the end of their top four chances.
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