- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
This weekend’s first Bledisloe Cup game for 2011 promises to be a fast and furious, highly entertaining Test match. As both teams showed in the 2010, they can and will run the ball at every opportunity.
Neither wants to give the other the chance to attack.
Both teams have improved since 2010.
The New Zealanders welcome back Dan Carter and now boast Sonny Bill Williams. The young Australians have a settled line up and have grown significantly in self-belief.
With a combined age of 433, (Australia: 365) it is the oldest ever New Zealand team to play Test rugby. It also has the most caps, 766 (Australia: 387).
Eight of the Australian team are 23 years or younger, (New Zealand: one). The average age is 28.9 years and 24.3 respectively. The average number of Test caps is 51 and 25.8.
I expect Australia to run New Zealand around as they have done in recent matches. Can the older team go with the youngsters?
In many ways, this game will be similar to the Super Rugby final between the Reds and Crusaders. Both teams heavily influence their respective national teams. The Reds have five in the run on team and eight in the starting 22, and the Crusaders will have six in the run on team and 10 in the 22.
The breakdown will be brutal and very influential as to the outcome of the game. While the Reds had 52 per cent of possession in the final, the Crusaders shaded the Reds at the breakdown with 83 rucks/mauls, 21 quick (25 per cent), 49 normal (59 per cent) and 13 slow (15per cent) compared to the Reds 74 rucks/mauls, 14 quick (18 per cent), 42 normal (66 per cent) and 18 slow (24 per cent).
Defence is a relative factor to attack. If everything else is equal, Australia’s defence against the New Zealand attack is better than New Zealand’s defence against Australia’s attack.
The gap between the scrums has narrowed since the final. The Crusaders scrum won nine from nine feeds and the Reds won eight from 10. The Australian scrum now has a better front row. Kepu, Moore and Alexander are in good form and are a much better front row than Daley, Faingaa and Holmes.
Ali Williams’ size, experience and “rat cunning” at lineout time is an advantage to the New Zealanders. Will he and Thorn be able to read and unravel the tyro, Simmons?
In the Super Rugby final, the Crusaders won six from 12 on their throw, with one lost and three not straight. The Reds won 10 from 10 on their own throw.
The lineout is an area that New Zealand is vulnerable. When combined, Australia’s tactical kicking to touch and lineout dominance could produce a turnover deep in the New Zealand red zone.
The backlines have contrasting structures. Carter will make all the decisions for New Zealand. Genia’s excellent vision gives him a partial role as the playmaker, deflecting attention from Cooper. Beale, O’Connor, Cooper, Carter and Williams are all x-factor players.
The bench will critical in the last 25 minutes. New Zealand has the clear edge here with SBW and Thomson genuine starting team players.
Both teams have excellent captaincy and leadership. McCaw is an excellent leader and referee manager, although referees are more able to cope with his tactics now. Both teams have multiple leaders in both the backs and forwards. The New Zealanders have Read, Williams and Carter. The Australians have Horwill, Pocock and Genia.
The major differences between the Super Rugby final and this weekend’s Bledisloe Cup game are that:
– The New Zealanders won’t fade in the final quarter of the game.
– It is an away game for the Australians.
– The New Zealanders are now under the pressure of expectation for this game. They have to win it.
I expect that it will be a very close win to the New Zealand All Blacks because they are more experienced, have a better bench and have home ground advantage.
The Australians are yet to achieve the consistency of equally talented but more mature teams.
In recent outings, Bloemfontein, Hong Kong, Paris and Sydney, they have progressively imbued New Zealand rugby’s special ingredient, the self-belief, ability and determination to win at all costs. It is already deeply ingrained in the Queensland Reds.
The Wallabies have more potential for improvement. If they were to realise more of their potential, they can claim an upset win.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.