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They might be separated by just six points on the AFL ladder, but one would be forgiven for doubting Carlton’s finals chances after kicking just one goal in the first half during a Friday night loss to Hawthorn.
With third spot up for grabs, the Blues hardly looked like a top four side for most of last night’s clash.
Reigning Brownlow favourite Chris Judd was kept under wraps thanks to Hawks midfielder Jordan Lewis, while the Blues second half fight back fell into the hands of Kade Simpson, who booted two back-to-back goals, only to see his side fall short by 12 points.
In the end, the Hawks walked away 10.18 (78) to 8.18 (66) victors, with Alastair Clarkson’s usual list of stars standing tall once again.
On the other side of the ball, Blues coach Brett Ratten now has a bye week to look forward to – a much needed rest with signs of fatigue starting to show.
If there’s one thing Blues fans can hang their hat on though, it’s the remaining possibility of a home final. The Blues can no longer catch the third place Hawks after Hawthorn guaranteed a top four finish last night.
However, Carlton can still clinch home ground advantage should West Coast lose two out of three against Essendon, Brisbane or Adelaide in the remaining weeks.
The Blues will also be in much better shape if Jarrad Waite is available to return from injury and play finals. Of course, with a hip injury, any minutes played in the VFL are no certain indication towards Waite’s overall fitness.
What may be an indication towards the Blues finals chances, however, were last night’s undeniable kicking woes. Against an opportunistic Hawthorn defence, Carlton struggled to maintain pressure on some of the Hawks bigger names – often gifting both Franklin and young up comer Issac Smith open shots at goal. The scenes were reminiscent of the Blues 36 point belting at the hands of West Coast in Round 14, a game that saw Matt Priddis dominate Carlton up the middle during the final three quarters.
Perhaps all of this would have been fine though if the Blues were able to convert opportunities into points at the other end of the ground. It appears Carlton, like Sydney, miss the presence of a big man up forward, as Bryce Gibbs kicked four behinds in the final term.
The same kicking inaccuracies also cost Hawthorn points on Friday night, but right now, the Hawks resemble that of a well-structured team — while Carlton still depend on Judd, Marc Murphy and Heath Scotland to act as the voice of experience.
If there is a positive to come out of Friday night’s loss though, it’s the realisation that the Blues can be just as competitive as the Collingwoods and Geelongs of the league.
In the fourth quarter, the Blues were hard to stop – and if Carlton hadn’t shot themselves in their kicking foot, we may have an entirely different scenario staring back at us.
For Ratten, the combination of Murphy, Scotland and Jeff Garlet is almost as dangerous as the Hawks triple threat of Franklin, Rioli and Luke Hodge.
If the Blues can keep that group functioning consistently, and solve the small forward problem, there’s no reason Carlton can’t compete against some of the AFL’s top defences.
But by narrowing it right down to the simplest of opinions, maybe the biggest question surrounding Carlton is progress.
Seeing Aaron Joseph contain Rioli last night was also a welcome sight for the 52,034 Blues fans who suffered through another agonising loss to a top four side, but it doesn’t appear Ratten has moved the Blues forward at all in comparison to last year.
If all goes haywire in the next two weeks, the Blue are in serious danger of falling to fifth on the ladder should West Coast prove victorious. That leaves Carlton staring at their third elimination final, a familiar ground of disappointment for the past three seasons.
Realistically, a lot of Carlton’s losses simply come down to bad fortune. If it wasn’t for Brad Thornton’s costly trip in the dying stages, Franklin’s 40m dash to the posts probably would have been avoided. That, plus the injury bug almost always equals a wonky season.
Even so, this Blues team is at a crossroads. Ratten has a week to solve inaccuracy issues (a tough ask for any coach), and the Blues timid attack in the middle of the corridor against a stifling Hawks defence last night leaves a lot to be desired with September approaching.
If you are to take away the good from Friday night’s loss, it’s that the Blues still have the desire to be competitive and dangerous even when faced with a monster margin.
The problem is the disappearance of key players like Judd, especially when Lewis was easily one of the best on ground.
To take away the bad, you are looking at kicking inefficiency and a serious problem when faced with a superstar full forward like “Buddy” Franklin. That home ground advantage will have to be pretty good to overcome both of those.
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