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Contrary to the dictates of my conscience, I posted earlier four reasons why the All Blacks would suffer defeat at the hands of the Springboks in their final Tri-Nations duel at Port Elizabeth.
As a fervent All Blacks man, I’d prefer to be eating my words right now. But not so. Well done the Springboks.
God knows you needed the win more than we did.
Now, without diving deep into post-match analysis, here are seven home-truths (in no particular order) that emerged after 80 fairly frustrating minutes of rugby, for both nations.
1. This South African XV is not capable of winning the Rugby World Cup 2011.
In the absence of renewed enterprise in terms of game-plan and personnel, this team has shrunk to the lowest common denominator, which is baseline set-piece efficiency and the boot of Morne Steyn. The fact that the Boks couldn’t cross for a single try against a makeshift New Zealand B-team is telling. Coach de Villiers will be gone by Christmas.
The Franks brothers, Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and Ma’a Nonu would have mopped the Port Elizabeth floor with this Springboks side.
2. All Blacks No 10 Colin Slade is still a long way off Cup-ready.
Dan Carter’s deputy was expected to be well beyond the kind of stage-fright suffered on South Africa’s main-stage.
The fly-half’s nerves manifested in all manner of unforced errors – off the tee, off the boot and with ball in hand. Coach Henry is in too deep with Slade’s selection to ponder alternatives. But they’ll be doubly prayerful Slade’s services are not exclusively required in the business end of the pinnacle tournament.
In saying that, Slade will be much the better man for this experience. How much better will remain an unknown. Next time he fronts it’s do or die.
3. Israel Dagg must start at No 15.
Full respect to New Zealand’s seasoned incumbent Mils Muliaina. But on the strength of this performance (and that’s all that is required), it would be criminal to have Dagg’s unrivalled attacking flare and technical excellence sitting idle on the sideline.
Dagg was devastating. He is a loosely arranged defensive-line’s worst nightmare. Imagine the potency behind a full-strength scrum and backline. Dagg has picked up where he left off prior to injury and renders Mils second-best.
4. Adam Thomson is no No 7.
Granted, Otago’s super-loosie has been a revelation this season. But his proficiencies end where the open-side begins. The gangly stand-in was most notably exposed and outmuscled in the breakdown area, which is unacceptable for the wearer of the No 7 jersey. Notwithstanding, Thomson justifies selection in the broader sense as insurance cover for numbers 4-8.
5. Sonny Bill Williams will make the cut based on brand and potential, but not form.
Sonny Bill’s Port Elizabeth performance at least confirmed that Ma’a Nonu owns majority stakes in the No 12 jersey by a considerable margin. With ball in hand, Williams was as tentative as the No 10 inside him but did his best to shake the nerves with some devastating defense.
The success-rate of his 50/50 offloads reduces relative to the quality and intensity of opposition. The big man must however be credited with some deft touches, including the nifty inside-ball to Hosea Gear that created the Richard Kahui try.
6. Select television match officials must be tried and proven.
Not local school teachers called up as late replacements, as was the case for Johan Meuswesen who denied the All Blacks a legitimate try. Ok, dynamic Dagg’s offload to Jimmy Cowan was arguably forward.
In ruling, Meuswesen correctly informed referee Clancy that Cowan had grounded the ball. However, part B of his ruling alluded to the preceding ‘alleged’ forward pass, a domain technically outside of his perimeters.
Clancy took the ruling on board and subsequently denied Cowan his 5-pointer. Dagg told Coach Henry afterwards it was a line-ball, which is clearly how ref Clancy and his touch-judge saw it. But for Meuswesen’s meddling, it should have been granted.
7. In terms of the final composition of the All Blacks Rugby World Cup squad, there is no wrong answer when it comes to the wingers department.
All contenders have put their best foot forward and equally justify selection. Isaia Toeava and Richard Kahui have compounded selectors’ headaches by turning in quality performances against the Boks. While cobwebs were evident for both players, it is to be expected in their first 80-minutes back. Yet both are only a touch off their formidable best.
According to Graham Henry in post match commentary, his selection panel was anticipating a long night pondering the merits of each and every contender.
The squad is expected to be finalised within 24 hours and then players informed accordingly. For observers, selection results should be fairly obvious. It’s hard to hide a broken heart.
And then on Tuesday, the general public will learn exactly who Henry has mandated to end New Zealand’s 24-year Rugby World Cup drought.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.