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Multi-time world champion Floyd Mayweather Jnr returns to the ring this weekend, taking on WBC welterweight titlist Victor Ortiz in Las Vegas. It marks the first time Mayweather has been in the ring since his wide unanimous decision win over Shane Mosley in May of 2010.
Ortiz returns after scoring the biggest win of his career in April where he moved up in weight and took the WBC title from Andre Berto in one of the better fights of the year.
This on paper should be a pretty routine fight to call. Mayweather is, well, Mayweather.
Ortiz in the last two years has come up short on two occasions in fights that a fighter with the sort of hype he had behind him should have won comfortably.
Ortiz was being hyped as the future of the sport until he was forced to quit by Marcus Maidana in the 6th round of their fight in 2009.
Ortiz bounced back and was on the path to take on Amir Khan or Timothy Bradley, the two top dogs in the junior welterweight division when he scored two knockdowns in the third round of his fight with Lamont Peterson.
Peterson rallied, outboxing and outworking the tiring Ortiz in the later half of the fight to earn a draw. This result seemed to eliminate Ortiz’s name from a lot of the big fights and when he moved up in weight to fight Berto, it seemed that it to try and build Berto’s name up for a big fight.
The two big factors that make this fight interesting are ring rust and how much Ortiz was draining himself to make the 140lbs weight limit.
Since 2008, Floyd Mayweather has fought only twice, both times going 12 rounds in one sided affairs.
Ortiz has fought 11 times and over 70 rounds.
Mayweather is a tremendous athlete and the type of fighter who historically has overcome long layoffs without it affecting his performance.
But as fighters get older, these sort of layoffs get more and more detrimental and against Ortiz, a fighter who breaks his opponents down with constant pressure, it’s more likely to take its toll as the fight wears on.
The other factor is an interesting one. Ortiz was massive at junior welterweight. The increase in his performance in the Berto fight from the Peterson fight has to be at least partly attributed to not having to drop the extra 2-3kg to make weight.
Mayweather isn’t a big welterweight, having come up in weight from as low as junior lightweight. Ortiz’s size and strength, provided he isn’t totally bamboozled by Mayweather’s speed, will be a factor.
Despite these factors, I’m picking Mayweather and I think he’ll do it easy. He’s too fast and technical for Ortiz as well as experienced.
Ortiz was nailed repeatedly by Berto’s counter shots as he was by Lamont Peterson and Mayweather is the best counter puncher in the game today.
The fight will probably go the distance as Mayweather has never been one to try and close a show in spectacular fashion (despite what he claims).
Ortiz will be game early but he’s a fighter with a bully mentality who tends to give up on himself when he can’t enforce his will on his opponents.
Once Mayweather figures out his offence and makes the necessary adjustments that he does in all his fights, he’ll shut Ortiz down and pot shot him on his way to a decision victory.
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