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Rain continues to fall in Melbourne as we slowly creep closer to the 2011 AFL Grand Final. The taunting presence of consistent drizzle, icy winds and grey skies is eerily reminiscent of the 2009 Grand Final and late withdrawals are on the agenda.
Showers are forecast for today, with a low of 10 and a high of 15. The MCG playing surface has already accrued significant rain with 32mls of rain falling since Thursday afternoon.
The blustery conditions, accompanied by a wet ball, will not only influence team selection, but also the output of players.
We can expect similar, if not more pressure, than in the 2009 Grand Final. Players will be sliding into contest from up to ten metres away and there will be plenty of untidy football played from spoiled contests and dropped marks.
With several players entering the game under injury cloud, Steve Johnson looks the one who will be most affected by the weather.
Declared ‘highly doubtful’ by Billy Brownless on the AFL Footy Show last night, his inability to weave through traffic due to his knee injury may see him as a late withdrawal.
Doing his best work, breaking tackles and weaving left to right between players, the wet ground will make this even more difficult for Johnson. As reported by Dr Peter Larkins on Footy Classified, “He will have no problem running straight lines but will struggle moving side to side.”
Looking at the 2009 Grand Final, Johnson had nine possessions for zero goals and zero goal assists. Under almost identical conditions alongside his knee injury, Billy Brownless has provided the most logical insight, despite going against everything coming out of the club.
If the harsh call is made on Johnson, Shannon Byrnes will come in.
Geelong’s decision to enter the game, with two bonafide ruckmen will also come under serious consideration. Under conditions not suited to big men, Trent West may fall victim to the weather, if Chris Scott turns to Tom Hawkins to back up Brad Ottens in the ruck.
This would give Geelong a more adaptable forward line.
The same day two years ago, St Kilda and Geelong entered the game with two ruckmen. Michael Gardiner and Steven King combined for 13 possessions, while Ottens and Mark Blake combined for 21.
Both teams’ ruckmen were below their season average.
In 2009, St Kilda recorded 58 marks against Geelong’s 52, which was one of the lowest figures of the season.
In their respective preliminary finals this year, Collingwood recorded 88 and Geelong 98. This may be a sign of things to come and a preference to play a smaller forward line.
With Ben Reid under injury cloud as Collingwood’s key defender, a mathematical call may be made to bring in Tyson Goldsack who has the ability to play small.
Goldsack will also be able to influence ground level contests, something Reid cannot.
Tarrent is expected to go to Podsiadly and Reid to Hawkins. At 193cm, Goldsack’s full fitness may warrant the 2cm loss from Reid to play on Hawkins who stands at 197cm.
In the air, Reid will beat Hawkins four out of five times but Hawkins’ lack of marking power in the wet will see the ball hit the deck regularly.
Goldsack’s ground level pressure may lead to an unfortunate selection call.
The rain continues to persist. It has not stopped all day however, it has not increased either. The build-up is identical to the 2009 Grand Final and forecasts predict more rain today.
All eyes will be on Steve Johnson today. His strengths rest in his side to side movement and without it in this weather; a fully fit Shannon Byrnes looks a safer selection.
Twitter @AlfredC91
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