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Can NRL CEO David Gallop and the other sporting codes capitalise on the AFL's Free-to-Air exclusivity with Channel Seven? (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
There has been much discussion about the possibility of the NRL competition expanding from sixteen to eighteen teams. There have also been arguments that this would spread the talent too thinly, wouldn’t have enough support in some areas, and so on.
But there are other ways to expand instead of just plonking a team in the competition.
If the NRL was creative about expansion, it could combine the NRL, QLD Cup and NSW Cup into three divisions with promotion and relegation.
This would happen after the next TV rights deal expires (start in 2018), so there is enough money to start the competition up.
The advantages of promotion and relegation are that it:
– allows the league to expand and change organically and is fairly based on a team’s performance and success.
– avoids the necessity of enforced and unpopular club mergers, culling or relocations for struggling clubs.
– heals the wounds of Super League by bringing back teams like the North Sydney Bears, Illawarra Steelers and Western Suburbs Magpies.
– provides greater meaning and incentive to games at the end of the season for relegation-threatened teams.
– allows teams with a rich history, who have previously played at the top level to aspire to once again play at this level.
The teams eligible for the new competitions in the NSW and QLD Cups would include:
NSW: Newtown Jets, North Sydney Bears, Central Coast Centurions, Western Sydney Magpies (Wests Tigers would become Balmain Tigers again), Windsor Wolves, Illawarra Steelers (set to enter NSW Cup next year)
I have cut Wenworthville Magpies due to close proximity to Parramatta, while the other cuts are due to them being the reserve team for a current NRL team.
QLD: Northern Pride, Souths Logan Magpies, Redcliffe Dolphins, Ipswitch Jets, Wynnum Manly Seagulls, East Brisbane Tigers, Mackay Cutters, North Brisbane Devils, Central Queensland Comets, Sunshine Coast Sea Eagles
Tweed Heads Seagulls and Burleigh Bears are on the Gold Coast, so would be cut. Since the NQ Cowboys would only be representing the Townsville region, they would become the Townsville Stingers. (were in the QLD Cup at one stage)
Here’s how it would work:
The top 12 teams of the 2017 NRL would qualify for Division 1.
The bottom four NRL, top three NSW Cup and top five QLD Cup make Division 2.
The bottom three NSW Cup, bottom five QLD Cup, and four expansion teams make Division 3.
These expansion teams could include Perth, Wellington, Christchurch and Adelaide/Darwin/PNG and so on (expansion teams debatable).
Based on this year’s results, this would mean the divisions would include:
Division 1: Melbourne Storm, Manly Sea Eagles, Brisbane Broncos, Balmain Tigers, St George Dragons, Auckland Warriors, Townsville Stingers, Newcastle Knights, Canterbury Bulldogs, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Sydney Roosters, Penrith Panthers.
Division 2: Cronulla Shark, Parramatta Eels, Canberra Raiders, Gold Coast Titans, Newtown Jets, North Sydney Bears, Central Coast Centurions, Northern Pride, Souths Logan Magpies, Redcliffe Dolphins, Ipswitch Jets, Wynnum Manly Seagulls.
Division 3: Western Sydney Magpies, Windsor Wolves, Illawarra Steelers, East Brisbane Tigers, Mackay Cutters, North Brisbane Devils, Central Queensland Comets, Sunshine Coast Sea Eagles, Perth Reds, Wellington, Christchurch, Adelaide.
Now for the economics of it all. With the current salary cap ($4.4m), the players received between 22-23% of all NRL revenue.
This means the NRL gets $306m revenue per year.
The current TV deal ($500m over six years) provides $83m, meaning the NRL receive $223m in ‘other revenue’.
Assuming this would increase to $250m by 2018, and the NRL secures a $1b/five years TV deal, their revenue in 2018 would be around $450m/year.
If the salary caps for each division were $8m, $4m and $2m respectively, the total players wage would be $168m. If the club grant was $1m over the salary cap (the NRL has indicated that it wants the grant to be more than the cap), the club grant would total $204m.
The clubs would then get 45% of all revenue. This would leave $246m left to invest in grassroots and whatever else they spend it on, $23m more than they currently do.
With the TV rights expected to bring in around $1-1.4b over five years, the NRL will have the funds to make it happen. The fans would still turn out as they do.
We just need someone up top with the courage to make it happen.
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