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The New Zealand vs Australia semi final of the 2011 Rugby World Cup is complete with participants that have “skin” in the game.
Already exciting enough even without considering the individual contests within the game, the semi final presents a wonderful series of confrontations, not just between the teams vying for the chance to become the World Champions for the next four years, but individual players, coaches and competitor codes domestically.
The New Zealand and Australian public and rugby supporters
New Zealand has gone through insufferable quadrennial torture at having the 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 Rugby World Cups ripped from their grasp despite having the number one ranked and clearly the best team, pound for pound on each occasion.
Each time, they are lulled into a false sense of security by their 80%+ winning ratio throughout the intervening four year periods.
New Zealand is currently $1.65 to win the RWC with Australia a distant second favourite at $4.50. New Zealand is rated $1.44 to defeat the Wallabies ($2.82) in this weekend’s semi final.
For such a knowledgeable and passionate rugby nation, how much can they bear if they were to lose this semi final?
How would the nation survive the trauma of being victims of day light robbery for the sixth consecutive time?
Conversely, the Australian public had had a roller coaster ride over the past two world cups.
The extra time field goal from Jonny Wilkinson’s weaker right boot in 2003 was not as painful as the pathetic capitulation to the English in 2007. The Australian public has since suffered four years of inconsistency.
Robbie Deans 2008 appointment brought short lived hope and confidence.
However, his coaching record since he took the Wallabies’ reins in 2008 stands at 30 wins, 21 defeats and one draw – a success rate of only 57 percent.
Australian rugby needs a strong and successful national rugby team to defend and grow its audience domestically.
The Coaches
Henry, Hanson, Smith, Deans and Nucifora all have plenty of skin in the game. All are all likely to be jockeying for senior appointments in 2012. A win will ensure that they are able to choose their appointment.
A loss invites usurpers such as Ewen McKenzie, John Mitchell, Gatland or Plumtree into the respective frays. A loss spells the end for Henry Smith and Hanson. Two losses are too much.
An essential new broom will sweep them clean away.
A loss for Deans means little in terms of his current employment but closes the door on his ultimate goal of coaching NZ while opening the door wider for Smith, Gatland and Hanson to take the New Zealand job.
New Zealand Scrum vs Australian Scrum
The New Zealand scrum start a long way ahead of their opposite numbers. The New Zealand scrum has the responsibility and expectation of the nation that they will destroy the Australian scrum and potentially win the game for the team and the nation.
The Australian scrum is facing total embarrassment, ridicule and blame if they do not at least achieve parity at scrum time. This tag will go with them for the rest of their careers in the minds of competing front rows and referees alike. They have a lot of skin in this game.
New Zealand lineout vs Australian lineout
The component parts of the lineout, the callers, catchers, and the throwers have plenty of skin in this game. In addition, around the field, the battle between Moore and Mealamu will be a very tough one.
McCaw vs Pocock
The old stallion comes up against the next big thing. Both have lots of skin in the game. Can McCaw be the one who brings the Cup back to New Zealand? Can Pocock shatter that guaranteed life long pension plan while also usurping McCaw’s position as the world’s best number 7?
Cooper vs Cruden
Cooper needs to prove to himself and the rugby world that he is more Benji Marshall than David Campese by playing a competent and clever game that gets his team the win. Cruden everything to lose and everything to win.
A good performance and he will be ordained as the next long term New Zealand number 10. A poor performance will see him join Donald as the whipping boy and an unreliable and hopeless case for years to come.
McCabe vs Nonu
Both McCabe and Nonu have plenty of skin in the game. Theirs is a more literal interpretation. Theirs is fully stretched skin, supported by coiled bone, muscle and sinew smashing into eachother.
The battle of the midfield promises to be enthralling and bone rattling. They will each receive massive support from their respective colleagues such as Read, Kaino, Thorn and SBW and Samo, Elsom, Vickerman and Ioane.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.