Having examined last week’s statistics in detail, let’s look ahead to the Australian Conference Super Rugby matches this weekend.
Rebels v Waratahs, Friday 7:40pm at AAMI Park
The last time the Waratahs paid the Rebels a visit they gave the home side a 43-point thrashing. That night the Rebels were left with the unenviable record of being the first team to ever be held scoreless by the Waratahs.
This time around, the visiting team are without one of their chiefs destroyers from that day Drew Mitchell (two tries, eight tackle busts, two try assists, two linebreak assists), who is out injured. Meanwhile Kurtley Beale, another of the Waratahs’ leading men that day (two tries, four tackle busts, two linebreaks), is now batting for the other team.
The Rebels will be desperate to record just their third victory at home, with the Rebel Army’s memory of their last win (25th March versus the Hurricanes) beginning to become blurry.
But there’s much work to be done for their first match for 2012. Three trial match losses, compounded by the worst defensive record in the 2011 competition, hardly bode well for a strong 2012 season. Yet the recruitment of scoring machine’s James O’Connor and Beale should at least see the Rebels hit the scoreboard this time around.
The Waratahs haven’t got too much to be cocky about; their away record isn’t something they can brag about, having losing their past five matches. However travelling interstate has been not all that bad, as they have won five of their past six against Australian opposition outside of New South Wales.
Damian Hill makes his Super Rugby coaching debut after three successful seasons (and titles) with Sydney University, while Michael Foley is still searching for his first win as head coach.
The Waratahs will be hoping this is Berrick Barnes’ last week on the sidelines with that pesky groin injury (they’ve only won one of their past six matches without him). They will also be praying that Daniel Halangahu can improve on his record; the Waratahs have only won two of their past five matches in which Halangahu has started at first receiver.
Expect the combined experience of 88 Wallabies caps, held by Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Sekope Kepu, to dominate the forward pack in this match.
Tip: Waratahs by 15 points
Reds v Force, Saturday 6:40pm (local time) at Suncorp Stadium
The Reds return to the ground which hosted their moment of triumph in 2011, in their first home hit-out for the season. Winners are grinners and after Dom Shipperley’s 79th minute heroics, the Reds were grinning rather sheepishly at the rusty start to their title defence.
Coming into what will be their 100th Super Rugby match in Brisbane (Ballymore: 56, Suncorp Stadium: 43), the Reds know all too well what sort of a fight the Force will put up. The Reds have won their last three consecutive meetings, but the last two in 2011 required heroics of a championship proportion; tries in the final five minutes of both matches to James Hanson and Dom Shipperley gave them the one- and three-point wins respectively.
McKenzie’s men are out to build on their strong 2011 record of six wins from eight games against Australian opposition, and to continue their current five-game winning streak. The only team to defeat them at Suncorp last season was the Brumbies.
The Force meanwhile will take confidence that their last two meetings have been close, and that they have led the Reds at half-time on five of their seven meetings, only to throw away the lead on three occasions. In fact, their second half performances brought about their downfall in 2011, where they only converted two of their eight half-time leads into wins.
While points might be hard to come by, tackles will not. The master and the protégé of the open-side flanker meet for the first time after injury prevented this mouth-watering clash last season. Pocock, the first pick in the number seven jumper for the past three seasons, will be up against the bullish former bar hand Beau Robinson, who doesn’t take no for an answer.
It’s enough to make you reach for another round of beer! Both have enjoyed stellar seasons in 2011, and once again little separates them in defence after week one of the new season. If anything Pocock has started poorly by his standards with three missed tackles against the Brumbies (more than half of his total in 2011), but he has taken the captain’s responsibility into attack, making three times the number of runs and metres than Robinson did last weekend.
Expect the tackling from these two to be ferocious, with no mercy.
Tip: Reds by 7 points
Finally, it wouldn’t be a stats preview without a few up-and-coming milestones:
• Bulls kicking master Morne Steyn needs nine more points to bring up 1000 career Super Rugby points and become just the third player alongside Stirling Mortlock (1031) and Dan Carter (1272) to reach this milestone.
• Bryan Habana needs just two more tries to bring up 50 career Super Rugby tries, to join Stirling Mortlock (55), Christian Cullen (56), Joe Roff (57), Caleb Ralph (58), and Doug Howlett (59) in the 50’s. He will also become the first South African to reach this milestone.
• The Hurricanes and Sharks are both searching for their 100th Super Rugby win.
• The Blues need one more try to bring up their 700th Super Rugby try. Only the Crusaders have scored more, with 718.
• Sias Ebersohn needs 10 more points to surpass Meyer Bosman (188pts) as the clubs all-time leading point scorer.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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