Here is my examination of the NRL season. The NRL team tiers analyse the respective NRL sides in an attempt to determine where each team will finish at the business end of the season.
This piece continues from 2012 NRL Team Tiers: Part one. This week we examine tiers two and three.
Tier two – The six top eight contenders
7. South Sydney
Through the recruitment of Michael Crocker, Greg Inglis, Matt King and coach Michael Maguire, the Rabbitohs have gained key elements of the successful Storm era. Also, the loss of Chris Sandow should see them make significant strides towards improving their central weakness: consistently leaking the most points in the league.
Expect their discipline and defence to improve and Adam Reynolds to flourish behind the strongest attacking forward pack in the league. They will have their best season since 1989, which means contending for seventh position on the ladder.
8. North Queensland
The Cowboys were entrenched in the top four until Jonathan Thurston’s injury resulted in them fading late in the season and finishing seventh. Their main loss this year is Willie Tonga, who in recent seasons gave them great polish in finishing attacking forays.
However, the introduction of Robert Lui to their spine gives them one of the most dynamic and reliable 1-6-7-9 combinations in the game. Their young and robust forward pack will serve them well in the trenches and they are a firm chance of finishing between 5-8th.
9. Canberra
A full season of Terry Campese and Josh Dugan, with Blake Ferguson on the wing and a stronger forward pack than 2011, we can expect the Green Machine to qualify for the finals in 2012. However, depth is an issue in the nation’s capital and they will slide down the ladder should just a few injuries strike.
10. Brisbane
The last two clubs who had a player the ilk of Lockyer retire, namely the Roosters with Fittler and the Knights with Johns, both failed to make the finals in their first full seasons without them. While the Broncos are well placed as their squad is bursting at the seams with young talent, Lockyer organised their attack and leaves a massive hole in the side’s creative ability.
It is likely the Broncos will struggle to score enough points to consistently win games throughout the season in Lockyer’s absence, however their squad depth will keep them in contention to squeeze into the finals.
11. Parramatta
It’s true, Chris Sandow is Parramatta’s greatest halfback since Peter Sterling. The Tonga signings bring greater potency to their backline and Justin Poore is essentially a new signing to their forward pack (after missing much of his time at the Eels through injury).
They won’t repeat the heights of 2009 because they don’t have Feliti Mateo, but they have the nucleus that will keep them in contention for the finals deep into the season.
12. Cronulla
A sober, or even moderately sober for that matter, Todd Carney can carry most NRL teams to the finals. Cronulla has a great forward back for Carney to run behind, but so do most teams, so it is their blunt backline, in comparison to the rest of the league, that is holding them back from being finals certainties.
Tier three – The four wooden spoon avoiders
13. Canterbury
Des Hasler will bring a much needed physical and disciplined edge to the Bulldogs, but there just isn’t enough talent or form in their roster for this to have an immediate impact. Similarly, the introduction of James Graham to the forward pack could be huge, but it is likely to take time for him to make a real impact on the side, as has happened previously with English players.
Both Gareth Ellis at the Tigers (who didn’t make the finals in his first season in 2009) and Adrian Morley at the Roosters (who went from grand finalists in 2000, to being bundled out of the 2001 Finals in Week 1) took time to adjust to the NRL. The loss of Jamal Idris is also significant.
14. Sydney Roosters
2010 was an utter fluke for the Roosters. They rode their luck with a brilliant, sober Todd Carney, and some favourable 50-50 refereeing against Manly, Canterbury and Brisbane in the regular season. Also, playing Melbourne post-scandal and during Origin helped elevate them into sixth instead of 8-10th.
Then, Chris Heighington fails to dive on a ball in a scrum to end the game and before you know it, the Roosters postpone Mad Monday and find themselves in the grand final. How they went in 2011 shows where they really are in terms of roster talent and with Todd Carney back on the drink.
The Roosters have a very young roster, have made no roster improvements on last year and are in complete rebuilding mode until James Maloney and potentially Sonny Bill Williams arrive next year. I love the Daniel Mortimer signing as the club is in desperate need for good character guys, but he hasn’t got Jarryd Hayne and Mateo around him who made him look so good in 2009.
How much the Roosters improve this year depends on how well Mortimer goes and whether or not Tautau Moga is the next Israel Folau. Having a club’s hopes resting on these two unproven quantities is never a sign of confidence for a successful season.
15. Gold Coast
The Titans arguably have the weakest spine in the NRL. The big signings in the centres and forward positions will only have the effect of keeping them competitive in most matches throughout the year.
But they have invested most of their salary cap in completely the wrong areas for them to be finals contenders and given how even the bottom eight sides usually are in the NRL, the Titans will be doing well to avoid the wooden spoon.
16. Penrith
The Panthers are similar to the Titans, difference being they have a more reliable 1-6-7-9 and a less talented forward pack with the departure of Trent Waterhouse. Given there hasn’t been too many roster changes, there is an good opportunity for the Panthers to win a few early season matches while many clubs are trying to gel. If they have a slow start, it will be a very long season.
Fortunately, much of this can be put down to rebuilding under new coach Ivan Cleary and General Manager Phil Gould.
It will be interesting watching the Panthers over the first month as it will dictate how painful this season will be and how much work Cleary and Gould have in front of them to get the Panthers back to being a premiership contender.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
Outrageous from the Broncos skipper on 'a wooden leg!'
The Wests Tigers threw the ball around like it was a grenade with the final kick sitting up perfectly for Charlie Staines to collect…
It was already going horrendously for Benji Marshall and the Tigers, 22-0 down at the hour mark, when their captain walked off the field.…
Samuela Fainu thought he pulled off a great tackle on Corey Oates, the problem was he was running for a quick restart, instead, he…
Api Koroisau thought he slammed the ball down for a try but on review, the bunker said there was separation and ruled no try.…
Deine Mariner had a shocker dropping the last pass with the line open, but he made up for it moments later with a diving…
