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Who should be the next England rugby manager? Stuart Lancaster is currently the caretaker but we are told the Rugby Football Union is hoping to make an announcement before the end of the month.
It has prompted an interesting debate over exactly what qualities you look for in a national coach, as well as a reminder of how much the World Cup cycle has come to dominate planning for all top unions.
Brett McKay wrote recently on how this question caused ripples outside England after Jake White was mentioned as a possible candidate. White pointed out that he is one of only six World Cup-winning coaches alive so his name is bound to come up when a top post becomes vacant.
Of course, one thing those six coaches have in common, along the with late Kitch Christie, is that they had never won a Cup before guiding their teams to the trophy.
Clive Woodward and Graham Henry had not only lost in previous tournaments, they presided over quarter-final losses which count as the earliest exits for both their countries. This is the same thing that happened in 1987, and again last year.
Warren Gatland is currently enjoying success as manager of Wales. He may see his team claim a Six Nations Grand Slam this weekend which would see him top the list of candidates for manager of the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia next year.
Gatland, however, could do little with Ireland in his three-year tenure, so we know he hasn’t always been able to wring top performances from his teams. Graham Henry’s credentials in the game are well established but he has also seen the fates conspire against him with the Lions in 2001, Wales in 2002 and New Zealand in 2007.
It seems to me that appointing a coach can be a relatively straightforward part of the process. The real difficulty lies in deciding when your choice is not up to the job. You can do that by setting performance targets. However, on that measure, perhaps neither Woodward or Henry would have been allowed to continue to later glory.
One of the regular themes here on The Roar is whether Robbie Deans is doing all that he can with the talent available or whether he is consistently under-performing. Was a third place World Cup finish enough? Or was that loss to Ireland a pointer to his underlying weaknesses as a coach?
Henry left Wales after he had apparently lost the dressing room, not the first time it’s happened to a manager in that proud rugby nation. His last match with the principality was a record 54-10 defeat to Ireland.
Conversely, he was reappointed to his job as All Blacks coach because the players still had faith in him, and more importantly, his union stuck with him. A similar combination helped Woodward keep his job in 1999.
Stuart Lancaster and his team have been given a strong vote of confidence by many members of the current England squad. Then again, the last squad all supported Martin Johnson, reserving their barbs for his coaches and each other.
We’ll never know whether the RFU planned to ditch Johnson, because he fell on his sword before they decided either way. Since he was originally selected as a manager to please the main sponsors and stakeholders at Twickenham, it’s very possible that the poor press surrounding the Cup had turned the tide irrevocably against him.
And therein lies another problem. The commercial realities of professional sport also determine how much rope a manager gets. The RFU turned to Johnson in 2008 because they needed to rebuild the goodwill lost since the 2003 World Cup win, a situation even an appearance in the 2007 final had done nothing to reverse.
By all accounts, the RFU is desperate to ensure that the team is in good shape and good hands when the next tournament is held in England. A performance such as the one delivered in 2011 would squander the chance to showcase the game, bring in sponsors, and give a boost to Premiership teams.
Stuart Lancaster has made a good start at rehabilitating England with the rugby-following public and the RFU will be delighted that memories of dwarfgate appear to be receding. In another era, he would probably have been handed the reins and told to get on with it.
However, that World Cup clock is ticking. When Andy Robinson was sacked one year out from the 2007 World Cup, one of the reasons Brian Ashton got the job next is because most top international managers were already in place taking other teams to the tournament. Others thought they could have little impact with the squad in such a short time.
This seems to mean that the man who takes England into 2015 must be someone who has been in place since at least the 2014 Six Nations, perhaps even earlier.
If Lancaster is to be appointed full time, then, realistically, he gets to take the team on tour to South Africa this year, has one round of autumn internationals against Fiji, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand, and then another Six Nations competition next year before the RFU has to decide to keep him through to the Cup or dump him. Is that enough time to judge him?
The RFU might have other candidates up their sleeve but Nick Mallett is widely believed to be the other frontrunner. Another consideration they must have is whether he would still be available next year if Lancaster doesn’t work out. Also, would he even want the job if he was turned away this time? The risk of running with Lancaster now is having no Plan B if he looks to be out of his depth.
Mallett, of course, is no safe bet. Some of the Twickenham faithful would undoubtedly be unhappy with a non-English coach (despite his Anglo roots) so some of Lancaster’s feelgood factor would be immediately lost. It’s interesting to speculate whether Mallett would have agreed to step in earlier if he’d known the caretaker would have turned into such a strong challenger.
If they do choose Mallett, the RFU would be putting their eggs in one basket, looking for him to take the squad to the Cup. Unless the chemistry goes spectacularly wrong, there’s no way they could think about replacing him before he’s had at least a couple of Six Nations tournaments under his belt.
Even then, as the experience with Andy Robinson shows, changing horses barely a year out from a Cup doesn’t give you a lot of options. It would probably have to be Mallett all the way, no matter what the initial contract terms specify.
There’s a lot we don’t know about the selection process. For instance, it isn’t clear whether a manager would have the final decision on his coaching team. Lancaster is happy with Farrell and Rowntree as his lieutenants but Saracens have already piped up saying they want Farrell back at the club.
If Nick Mallett, or some other overseas choice, gets to choose his own coaches then there may be fewer Englishmen getting experience of working at the top level.
This has raised the prospect of a Mallett/Lancaster combination. Superficially, it looks attractive, because it keeps Lancaster in the loop, which should help with succession planning. However, it sounds a bit like asking both men for a compromise they might prefer not to make.
England play Ireland at Twickenham in their last Six Nations match. It’s unlikely, but if they win handsomely, and France manage the same against Wales in Cardiff, they will have a chance to take the title. If they suffer the kind of comprehensive defeat which undid them last year, then maybe some of Lancaster’s support will ebb away.
Perhaps some members of the RFU have a preferred outcome for Saturday.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.