Are Carlton stalling or on the verge of something special? Our second-last AFL season preview investigates.
The Recap
Last year: 14-7-1, 5th, lost semi final
Best and fairest: Marc Murphy
Leading goal kicker: Andrew Walker (56)
Key additions: –
Key losses: Setanta O’Hailpin, Ryan Houlihan
Analysis
Since Brett Ratten has taken over, the Blues have enjoyed a reasonably smooth ride up the ladder.
His first full season saw the win tally rise from four to ten. Then there were two years of making it to the first week of finals. Then, last year, the side flirted with the top four before settling in fifth spot and winning their first final.
On the surface, this trend has them as a likely top four side this season, which would also make them a legitimate premiership chance.
Simple, right? Err … not quite.
Rarely do sides rise without some backward steps along the way, and a disappointing pre-season is cause for concern.
That’s not because the Blues failed to win a game. Their NAB Cup percentage of 74 is the same percentage Geelong had this time last year. Rather, the cause for concern lies with the fact the sluggish start can be attributed, at least in part, to injuries.
Chris Judd has shown signs of being underdone after shoulder surgery in December, and key players Andrew Walker, Michael Jamison, Nick Duigan, Robbie Warnock and Jeremy Laidler are already out of contention for Round 1.
It’s a stark contrast to this time last year, when the injury list consisted of just two players – and only one of those was best 22 material.
Still, there are reasons for the Carlton faithful to be optimistic. Only three points separated the Blues and West Coast, in Perth, in the semi final last year. And that was with Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer and Jarrad Waite all missing.
And Kreuzer, who has plenty of scope for improvement, is one player who has looked good during the pre-season.
The foundation of last year’s success was an improved back line, thanks largely to the additions of Duigan and Laidler, plus the successful transition of Chris Yarran from forward to defence.
Jamison is quality and young Lachie Henderson showed promising signs when he made the move down back in the second half of last year. Depending on the opponent, Andrew Carrazzo can play a shut-down role and veteran Heath Scotland is coming off a fourth-place finish at the best and fairest.
All in all, it’s a good back line when fit. That they went from conceding 1983 points in 2010 – the ninth best record in the league – to just 1700 points last year – the fifth best – is testament to that.
The back line, however, is where the injuries seem to have hit hardest. It’s a bit disturbing that with regulars being absent, Carlton conceded more points than anyone in the NAB Cup – and that includes the GWS Giants.
The star-packed midfield is undoubtedly one of the competition’s best.
Judd is elite, we all know that. Assuming he gets back to full fitness he’ll be among the game’s best once again. Last year Marc Murphy joined him in that category by averaging almost 30 touches a game, winning the best and fairest and collecting 19 Brownlow votes.
Bryce Gibbs and Kade Simpson aren’t all that far behind. Gibbs particularly is a chance to take his game to another level this season.
Brock McLean has had a good pre-season, Mitch Robinson is coming along nicely and Kane Lucas is set for more game time also.
With Kreuzer in the ruck, backed up by either Warnock or Shaun Hampson, the Blues’ midfield guns should see plenty of the pill.
The forward line had a productive 2011 with the high-flying Walker (56 goals), Eddie Betts (50) and Jeff Garlett (48) doing the most damage to the scoreboard.
The issue is whether Waite can put together a full season. The Blues need a tall target to fire, and Waite only registered 16 goals from his 12 games last season. More games, more goals should be his aim for 2012.
Depth is a problem but the Blues do have midfielders that can push forward and kick goals, plus the sheer number of goals from Walker, Betts and Garlett was certainly impressive last year.
All things considered, Blues have a bit of a Fremantle 2011 vibe about them going into this season. Firstly, they’re coming off a semi final which many viewed as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. Also, there’s number of players either on the sidelines or having had interrupted pre-seasons.
You suspect things won’t get as bad as what the Dockers went through, however. Judd finding his feet aside, the medical woes don’t really involve the midfield, this side’s great strength. There are also other factors, like a fitter Kreuzer and the chance for Gibbs to improve, at play.
With this in mind, while the top four may have to wait another year, September once again awaits for the Blues.
Prediction: 5th-8th
m0nty’s Fantasy Picks
FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fools gold (avoid at all costs).
Keeper: Preseason scares around a knee injury warned a lot of fantasy coaches off Marc Murphy last season, much to their chagrin as he fronted up for another gloriously consistent 22-game season despite drawing constant tags. No such worries this year.
Cash cow: Sam Rowe could step out of Norwood’s full forward spot into the Blue shoes vacated by Setanta O’hAilpin, with Lachie Henderson seemingly more suited to defence. As a key position player, he’s more of a fantasy bench prospect.
Fool’s gold: Mitch Robinson got lucky a number of times with suspension last season, and while his forward eligibility makes him interesting given he plays mostly midfield, he is a major risk to miss multiple games in an enforcer role that seems straight out of the 1970s.
Carlton photo gallery
First five fixtures
Round 1 vs. Richmond, MCG
Round 2 vs. Brisbane, GABBA
Round 3 vs. Collingwood, MCG
Round 4 vs. Essendon, MCG
Round 5 vs. Fremantle, Patersons
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