After a humbling of the Tigers and a 15-goal demolition of Brisbane, Carlton fans and the wider football public are asking: can a team that has one finals victory in 10 years win the premiership in 2012?
The Blues have certainly gotten off to an impressive start after a pre-season that saw them go winless through the NAB Cup, displaying some indifferent form which had many experts questioning their top-four credentials.
Some take no notice at all of the pre-season, while others read too much, but the truth lies somewhere in between, and the relevance of February and March form depends entirely on the side in question. Clearly for Carlton it was as relevant as Ben Polis’ thoughts on racial equality.
Rare is the premiership that is won without a gilt-edged midfield, and the Blues have the quality at the top end and depth at the bottom required.
Chris Judd needs no introduction, and even with a Norm Smith, two Brownlows, five best-and-fairests and six All-Australian jumpers, he is able to claim, and has repeatedly, that he is not the best player at his club.
Some scoffed at me placing Marc Murphy at number nine in my 2012 player rankings, but he deserved his place and has set about proving it in the opening weeks.
There is no smoother mover in the AFL, no more effective user when out in space, and he has the goal sense that separates the truly great midfielders from those who are merely very good.
Bryce Gibbs is Murphy’s running mate, and also oozes class as he roams around the ground collecting the ball at will as the best link player in the competition.
Fourth banana is Kade Simpson, and every side should be so lucky to have him leading the support cast, running the wings to gather 25 quality touches and a goal a game.
Mitch Robinson is a cannonball wrapped in skin, and those who get hit by him certainly feel it the next day. Ed Curnow and Dennis Armfield provide the depth and hardness.
With the exception of the exquisitely skilled Chris Yarran, who will cut many sides to ribbons throughout the year with his pace and dash, the Carlton defence is old-fashioned and effective.
Lachie Henderson, Jeremy Laidler, Michael Jamison and Nick Duigan all do a job and have neat enough disposal, with Andrew Carrazzo and Heath Scotland always intent on pushing back to help out.
Jamieson and Duigan haven’t played in either game so far, but are among the first selected when fit, so depth down back is not an issue.
Up forward is where the Blues are especially dangerous, and no side can keep all of their options quiet. They’ve already had fifteen different goal-kickers in two games, with nine of them slotting multiples.
Jarrad Waite leads the side in the air, with rotating ruckmen Matthew Kruezer and Shaun Hampson providing support, along with rejuvenated swingman Brett Thornton, who is proving capable in his own right of providing headaches.
Small men Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett are unstoppable when on song, and will be looking to build on the 98 goals between them from last year.
And we haven’t yet seen Andrew Walker, who led Carlton’s goal-kicking last year with 56, and is equally capable on the lead or off the ground.
While it could be argued that it’s easy to read too much into wins over a couple of moderately performed teams, it has been the manner of victory that has impressed.
In the 18 team competition, Richmond can be assessed as a middle-third (7th-12th) type of side, and Brisbane will likely finish in the bottom six, so Carlton’s winning margins against them are a true reflection of what a top-four side should achieve.
For those not as keen to declare the Blues a genuine contender before compiling more evidence, the next three weeks will be a good measuring stick.
A huge Friday night ‘match of the round’ against Collingwood kicks off this run against more accomplished opposition, followed by an Essendon that will be 3-0 after taking care of Gold Coast next. The Bombers proved in the early season draw last year that when fit and firing, they can trouble Ratten’s men.
Fremantle away is next for the Blues, who showed against Geelong in round one that they will be a tough nut to crack in the confines of Patersons Stadium.
If Carlton can come out the other side of this run of matches with a win-loss ratio of even 4-1, then they’re off to the races, and with the friendliest draw of the top contenders this year, they can look forward to locking in the double chance. From there, a flag is well within their reach.
And if they post some large margin wins against the aforementioned three in the slick style with which they have played so far, dominating possession yet still breaking even in the tackle count, even non-believers will have to begrudgingly give Carlton their due.
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