- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The Queensland Maroons side has been backed into favourtism to win State of Origin 2012 and make it six series wins in a row.
The shortening in odds by bookmakers was a market correction as bookies were trying to gauge a feel for what punters wanted to do and few substantial wagers were taken at the “overs”.
The key to winning this year’s Origin will be Game I to be played at Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium.
The winner of this game will become a very short favourite to take the series as it is an “away” game and the winner will have another game in their home state.
The Origin dates are:
Game 1: Wednesday 23rd May in Melbourne.
Game 2: Wednesday 13th June in Sydney.
Game 3: Wednesday 4th July in Brisbane.
My ratings suggest that the likely selected teams will both be stronger than last year – a big statement given legend Darren Lockyer and Mark Gasnier have retired.
Punter can secure 100 percent by backing both sides at the moment, and that will likely improve when the Betfair market gets some liquidity.
Why the Maroons are stronger:
• They should have a fit Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges for all three games giving them the world’s two best centres.
• The bench will be stronger with likely additions Matt Gillett, Josh McGuire and either Ben Barba or Daly Cherry-Evans. Rooster Martin Kennedy is also fit this year.
• The move of Thurston to replace Lockyer and Cronk to start at halfback is a bonus as it offers a genuine organiser at first receiver and allows the brilliant Thurston to rome on both sides. This combination will give the Maroons the same key positions of 1, 7 and 9 as the unbeaten Storm, who will enjoy game one at home.
Why the Blues are stronger:
• They will have a world class second receiver in Todd Carney to replace Soward.
• A world-class fullback (either Dugan or Morris) will replace Minichiello.
• Danny Buderus strengthens the hooker position.
• Gun young forward Taraq Sims will add to the bench.
• Michael Jennings made 11 tackle breaks and three line breaks in Game 1 and never played in Game 2 and 3. He comes in for Gasnier and Hopoate.
• Coach Ricky Stuart to learn from 2011 selection blunders like selecting Dean Young as starting hooker over Robbie Farah, non selection of Jarryd Hayne, Anthony Watmough, Glenn Stewart, Luke Lewis (G1), Anthony Minichiello at fullback (G2 and G3) over Hayne, Brett Stewart, Gidley, Coote, Merritt or Brett Morris.
Summary: Maroons has the three best organisers in the game with Cronk, Thurston and maybe Cherry-Evans and the best general in Smith, but the Blues will have the best forward pack led by the amazing Paul Gallen.
If Cronk is allowed to run the show like he does at the Storm and Thurston can get the ball when he wants it, then despite the strong Blues 17, the Maroons will have too many smarts.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.