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On six occasions this season, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs (both 4-4) have faced a team with a shorter break. For North Melbourne (3-5) it’s been seven occasions.
Each year the AFL is set with the difficult task of making the schedule fair for all clubs.
However, if the draw is to even out in terms of breaks between games, these teams should receive more rest in the middle or latter stages of this season.
The fixture is often judged in terms of top eight and bottom eight opponents, but while there is always some movement from year to year, the five, six, seven and eight day breaks have the same effect.
Channel Seven expert medico Dr. Peter Larkins this week said that the rising trend of injury incidents in 2012 is a concern.
Teams with an extra 1-2 day break in their following match could have a significant advantage in terms of preparing their players and injury recovery.
Here is what the AFL ladder would look like through 8 rounds, if it was based on teams with a break advantage always winning.
1. Adelaide 8-0
2. Essendon 6-2
3. Carlton 5-3
4. Collingwood 5-3
5. Hawthorn 5-3
6. St Kilda 5-3
7. West Coast 5-3
8. Brisbane 4-4
9. Gold Coast 4-4
10. Melbourne 4-4
11. Sydney 4-4
12. Fremantle 3-5
13. GWS 3-5
14. Port Adelaide 3-5
15. Richmond 3-5
16. Geelong 2-6
17. Western Bulldogs 2-6
18. North Melbourne 1-7
(Note: round one winners were selected by market odds favourite. Teams on the same number of wins are in alphabetical order)
This shows that Adelaide, through eight rounds, did not play a team with a shorter break. Along with Essendon, they have capitalised on their advantageous draws to be sitting in the top four at 7-1 in the season proper.
West Coast has had to do it tougher for their 7-1 start facing three opponents with a shorter break. Hawthorn also versus three has only managed a 5-3 start, whereas Sydney versus four has managed a very credible 6-2, also putting them inside the top four
Geelong (2), Western Bulldogs (2) and North Melbourne (1) have managed to start 4-4, 4-4 and 3-5 respectively, whereas Melbourne and the Gold Coast, who have been gifted significantly better draws in terms of rest, have both started without a win.
There are not usually too many changes in the final 8 after round eight each season (currently West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney, Collingwood, Carlton, Hawthorn, Fremantle make up the top 8), however with some longer breaks due to come their way later in the season, don’t write off Geelong fighting their way in.
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