The UFC is back in business this weekend, which means we’re back offering our thoughts on how the main card at UFC 150 is going to play out.
Erin Tierney and I dissect each of the five fights on the pay-per-view portion of Sunday’s card, telling you who we think is going to have their hand raised and why.
Hopefully for everyone, we’ll do a little better than we did with last month’s event in Calgary.
Here are our picks.
Benson Henderson (16-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2-1)
Erin: This rematch is going to be interesting given that we know the Frankie Edgar has been stronger in the second fight. However, what we don’t know is how he responds when he isn’t the champ. Given that we have seen this fight before, we know what to expect with both Henderson and Edgar pushing each other around the Octagon.
In this instance I think Henderson will remain on top and we can move away from rematches for a while.
Pick: Henderson via Decision.
Spencer: Everything Erin says is spot on, and while I expect Edgar to come out and deliver the same kind of impressive performance he’s put forth in each of his last two rematches, Henderson has continued to advance his game in each of his UFC appearances to date, and I expect that trend to continue here.
Pick: Henderson via Decision.
Donald Cerrone (18-4, 1 NC) vs. Melvin Guillard (30-10-2, 1 NC)
Spencer: These two know each other extremely well from having sparred together on numerous occasion while both were part of Team Jackson-Winkeljohn. Guillard has since left, but his style remains the same, and paired with Cerrone, we should get an explosive stand-up battle from these two lightweights.
While Cerrone has an edge on the ground, “Cowboy” is going to be content to stand with Guillard in this one, believing his Muay Thai is superior to his former teammate’s boxing. I tend to agree. Cerrone has a very good chin, and a more diverse striking attack, and over 15 minutes, he’ll get the better of Guillard.
Pick: Cerrone via Decision.
Erin: This has the potential to upset Henderson vs. Edgar for Fight of the Night stakes. “Cowboy” Cerrone has had a great run in the UFC, up until his fight against Nate Diaz late 2011, in which the usually aggressive fighter looked off and failed to get into the fight. In his competitor, we have seen an equally aggressive stand-up fighter. Given Guillard’s poor record of submission defence, however, I have to hand this one to Cerrone.
Pick: Cerrone via Submission, Round 2.
Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Ed Herman (20-8)
Erin: This is a real interesting match-up given that Shields really hasn’t had the best run since entering the UFC from Strikeforce, finally getting back into the win column against Yoshihiro Akiyama in Japan earlier this year. In the meantime, Ed Herman really has been gathering speed with impressive wins over Kyle Noke and Tim Credeur. I really think that Herman’s aggression and overall skill both standing and on the ground will present a level of difficulty to Shields, and should get “Short Fuse” the upset win.
Pick: Herman via TKO, Round 2.
Spencer: You can’t judge Jake Shields by his performances as a welterweight in the UFC; they’re not indicative of the true level of talent the American jiu-jitsu innovator has to offer. This bout, however, should serve as a reminder of how talented Shields is inside the cage.
Herman has been on a nice roll, but beating Clifford Starks, Kyle Noke, and Tim Credeur is not the same as facing someone like Shields. Though he’ll need to be wary of Herman’s power in the stand-up, Shields will drag this fight to the ground, where he’ll suffocate Herman like he’s done so many high-level opponents in the past. Love this move back to middleweight, and think Shields will be in the title hunt by this time next year, if not sooner.
Pick: Shields by Submission, Round 2.
Yushin Okami (26-7) vs. Buddy Roberts (12-2)
Spencer: This time last year, Okami was preparing to face Anderson Silva for the middleweight title. While Roberts is a tough out – and a difficult late replacement draw – Okami should be better in every area, and get back into the win column without too much difficulty here.
Pick: Okami by Decision.
Erin: Buddy Roberts has stepped in after Rousimar Palhares was forced out of the bout due to injury. Roberts has a great record of finishes, with 9 out of 12 wins via KO or submission, and will come in as an immense underdog to Okami’s big-fight experience.
Okami really needs this win after his recent losses against Tim Boetsch and Anderson Silva. Overall, Okami should win this one easily, but Roberts will certainly benefit from stepping in and fighting a big name.
Pick: Okami via Decision.
Justin Lawrence (4-0) vs. Max Holloway (5-1)
Erin: As the first overall pick, Lawrence was the early favourite to win the recent Ultimate Fighter season, and threw the MMA world into a spin when he bowed out of the competition in the quarter-final stage. Lawrence’s aggression returned with a head kick KO of John Cofer in the TUF 15 finale. I expect that momentum to continue into this bout against Holloway.
Pick: Lawrence via TKO, Round 1.
Spencer: Lawrence is the more recognizable name thanks to his time on TUF, but Holloway has shown himself to be an equal – if not better – prospect so far. The Hawaiian came out aggressive in his loss to Dustin Poirier, and then put on a striking clinic when he battered Pat Schilling to earn his first UFC win. Lawrence has a poor Fight IQ and let’s the confidence he has in his striking leave openings for his opponents. Holloway will capitalize on those mistakes, and force Lawrence to make others as well, and hand “The American Kid” his first professional loss.
Pick: Holloway via Decision.
Leave your picks for Sunday’s UFC 150 main card in the comments section.
Follow Erin Tierney on Twitter: @erinttweeting
Follow Spencer Kyte on Twitter: @spencerkyte
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