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Yesterday we looked at the pretenders. Those who will not be challenging for Super Rugby silverware.
Today we look at the teams who are sitting on the bubble.
These Super Rugby sides are the ones lurking in the shadows, hiding up a tree or setting an ambush around a blind corner.
Already six Super Rugby teams are either too far gone, or just not good enough to contend for the title.
They were written off yesterday.
Today I cover some teams that are in with a shot but need to adjust and improve to make the most of their hopes. Will they launch a long shot attack and roll home to glory?
A combination of strategy, selection and luck is needed to win it all.
Hurricanes
We kick off with a team that is already only hanging on to the bubble group for one reason: weapons. They were obviously smart when it came time to select the instruments they would use. Until now they’ve fired blanks and find themselves sitting on two wins from four.
With the likes of Julian Savea, Andre Taylor, Conrad Smith, TJ Perenara and Victor Vito in the holster you’ve got to believe if the platform can be built there’s enough talent there to put the fear of god into any opponent.
So far Taylor has played so poorly he came off the bench against the Highlanders. His replacement was beaten by Hosea Gear twice in the one run at one point. Hopefully Taylor returns to the starting side soon and plays with the same confidence as last year.
Their scrappy results are enough to keep them around, but they’d better lock and load soon.
Crusaders
This may be blasphemy to some – believe me I’ll be watching my back after saying this – but we are now playing out the fifth season since the Crusaders last won a Super Rugby title.
It’s officially long enough to start considering this rugby team through the lens of what’s happened on the field already and not put so much weight on what might happen going forward. Wyatt Crockett, Corey Flynn, Andrew Ellis and Daniel Carter – those are the only four players who played in the win over the Bulls that were also in the team for the 2008 championship.
I’ll put a little weight on history and acknowledge that there are heads around that know how to get the job done, and for that reason they have a better chance than the Hurricanes currently. But they do only have a single victory out of three now.
Improvement needed. The likes of Carter, Crockett and Flynn are going to have the lead the way back to the top.
Stormers
This is the side that’s hiding in the trees. There is talent, physicality and experience all across the pitch for the Stormers. If they can sort themselves out they are going to drop down from their limbed hideaway like a tonne of bricks and make everyone wonder where they came from.
So far the Stormers have lost away to the Bulls, Sharks. That was followed by a victory against the reigning premiers in a bum squeak of a close match. Their sole win is a high quality fight and their losses are also high quality, if you could ever classify a loss as such.
With what would go close to being the biggest forward pack in Super Rugby the Stormers have chosen to prioritise a physical, defensive game style over the last few years.
This year they tried to address their attacking deficiencies and might have readjusted a bit far in that direction, but at the same time they did need all 36 points to beat the Chiefs.
Basically, if the Stormers can tailor their game-plan and style to the opposition they can hope to prevail in a similar manner to the Reds in 2011.
Their fly-half is still settling and is surrounded by experience and size. This is a team with a huge asterisk next to their name.
Blues
Is this the most athletically talented team in Super Rugby this year? I’d be willing to argue it.
Waisake Naholo, Rene Ranger, Frank Halai, Charles Piutau in the backs. Luke Braid, Liaki Moli and Stephen Lautua aren’t slouches either in the pack.
If coach Sir John Kirwan can put some of the organised rugby fundamentals in place the Blues could go somewhere. I’ve written about them at length already this year, but let’s just say the Bulls loss exposed a number of weaknesses that need to be addressed quickly for this side to continue its upward trajectory.
Reds
The Reds wins come against the Force, Waratahs (two sides that are already dead in the water) and the Hurricanes (trying to fit the ammo in their gun). Their loss came against another side that isn’t going to figure at the pointy end of the competition.
What makes them worth mentioning this far along?
This team is still being built. The Reds haven’t yet settled on a strategy going forward.
As they sort out who they believe they can become, the team will perform on another level. What we’ve seen this far is a spluttering sports car that needs a good service.
Will Genia, welcome back, take your time, but don’t be long sir.
James Horwill, please get on the paddock and give this side some direction. Reds fans have noticed your absence and have a newfound respect for the starch and leadership you provide.
Quade Cooper, please run straight and everything else will settle into place.
The Reds host the Bulls at Suncorp and then have two away games, against the Highlanders and Chiefs, gapped with a bye.
After that 13th April game in Hamilton we should know enough to cross them off or follow them home.
Sharks
The team that holds the second place in the South African conference is right on the fringe of being a full-fledged contender.
What is holding them back?
It comes down to the manner of the loss against the Brumbies last week. The Sharks started with three wins on the trot. While they didn’t always look good, getting the mark in the win column counts.
However they needed to lift and make a real statement with the up-start Brumbies travelling across the Indian Ocean. The Sharks couldn’t step up to the plate.
They finished last season as the hottest team in the competition. They played with relentless speed and blew through the field. They lost only one match between dates with the Chiefs in April and August.
The Sharks next game outside South Africa is on April 27th against those same Chiefs.
Fans need to hope that they go back to the drawing board and build toward that match with the aim to making a statement about their intentions to contend this year and trying to atone for last year’s grand final loss in Hamilton.
Super Rugby is a cut-throat competition and only a few teams at this point in time seem ready and poised to go for the biggest prize.
We’ll cover those sides tomorrow.
It’s early and they could all stumble before the finish, but the ball is in their court.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.